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A Shocked Wall Street Reacts To China's "Surprising" Devaluation

  • Today’s fixing was a big surprise, and impression is that upside risks to USD/CNY have grown
  • PBOC’s actions are conflicting: there was suspected intervention yesterday and sentiment stabilized, but it set such a low fixing today
  • Will help loosen monetary conditions; still, risk of capital outflows could increase concurrently
  • Expect 5%-10% depreciation by end of the year, though this depends on the pace of PBOC’s intervention and health of macroeconomy

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Frontrunning: January 6

  • Obama, wiping tears, makes new push to tighten gun rules (Reuters)
  • Global stocks hit by China worries, North Korea nuclear test (Reuters)
  • Oil hits 11-year low, Saudi-Iran row cuts chances of output restraint (Reuters)
  • North Korea says successfully conducts first H-bomb test (Reuters)
  • Valeant Planning to Appoint New Leader as CEO Remains Hospitalized (WSJ)
  • Treasuries Extend 2016 Winning Start With Growth Outlook Clouded (BBG)

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The Carnage Returns: Stocks Tumble After Sharp Chinese Devaluation; Brent At 2004 Lows; Gold Surges

Before we go into details of the overnight carnage, this is where we stand currently: S&P futures now down 33 points or 1.63% while 2Y Treasury rallies pushing its yield back below 1% as EU stocks extend their drop after China weakened its currency, North Korea says it tested a hydrogen bomb; Brent crude falls to lowest level since 2004.


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Germany In Shock After "Monstrous" Attacks, Rape By 1,000 Men "Of Arab Or North African Origin"

About 90 women have reported being robbed, threatened or sexually molested at the New Year's celebrations outside Cologne's cathedral by young, mostly drunk, men, police said on Tuesday.  The scale of the attacks has shocked Germany. About 1,000 drunk and aggressive young men were involved. City police chief Wolfgang Albers called it "a completely new dimension of crime" adding that "the men were of Arab or North African appearance." Cologne mayor Henriette Reker said the attacks were "monstrous" adding that "we cannot allow this to become a lawless area."


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"Presidentialism" Not Serving American Politics Well

Evangelicals, Tea-partiers, Progressives, Libertarians, Ghettofied Blacks, Unionized Labor, and other groups will be tapped and lured by the career politicians in the two parties to receive their financial support and vote, in most instances without political voice… Our system of Presidentialism may have served us well in the past but its rigidity in the political process denies the multiple voices that need to be heard in a democracy, nor offers the required tools for political compromise.  Sadly... here we are, stepping into 2016 with the possible political prospect of having to elect as chief executive of this nation either a lady with questionable trust-credentials or a boisterous charlatan.


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North Korea Confirms It Conducted "Successful Hydrogen Bomb Test" As "Act Of Self-Defense" Against US

Update: North Korea has confirmed that it has "successfully tested a hydrogen bomb." The test was "an act of self-defense" against threats like the US.

A 5.1-magnitude earthquake detected near North Korea’s nuclear test site appears to have been artificial, according to South Korea’s meteorological service, raising the prospect the isolated regime tested a nuclear device. As Bloomberg reports, the "earthquake" follows North Korea’s threat in September that it is ready to use atomic weapons against the U.S. at any time and that its main nuclear facility was fully operational. The Pentagon is reportedly "looking into" the quake reports.


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Visualizing How The Global Economy Played Out In 2015

Many people start a new year with renewed optimism. However, "New Year, Same Problems" is the meme of 2016... and recent trading has dashed some of that optimistic 'This time it's different' hope.


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Central Bank Money Printing - The Rotten Philosophy That Lies Beneath

Taking away from the government its power of compelling the citizenry to accept money that it monopolistically controls and abuses may serve as an important legal and economic change to force the government and those who live at its spending trough to face the reality of the welfare state’s ideological and fiscal bankruptcy before it is too late to avert a complete collapse of the society.


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Dow Futures Plunge 170 Points After Yuan Crashes To 5-Year Lows As PBOC Loses Control

Dow futures are down over 170 points from the cash close, testing the lows of the day following carnage in the Chinese currency markets. Despite the biggest drop in onshore Yuan since August devaluation, Offshore Yuan has collapsed to its lowest since September 2010. What is more worrisome (or positive for Kyle Bass) is that the spread between onshore and offshore Yuan has blown out to 1250 pips - a record - indicating dramatic outflows and/or expectations of further devaluation to come.


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China Set To Establish No-Fly Zone Over Islands After Successful Test Flight

"The next step will be, once they've tested it with several flights, they will bring down some of their fighter air power - SU-27s and SU-33's - and they will station them there permanently. That's what they're likely to do."


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Will Mideast Allies Drag Us Into War?

Turkey’s shoot-down of a Russian jet and the Saudi execution of a revered Shiite cleric, who threatened no one in prison, should cause the United States to undertake a cost-benefit analysis of the alliances and war guarantees we have outstanding, many of them dating back half a century. Do all, do any, still serve U.S. vital national interests?


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Is The US Criminalizing Free-Speech?

Eighty-two leading Democrats have cosponsored a House Resolution (H.Res. 569) "Condemning violence, bigotry, and hateful rhetoric towards Muslims in the United States". As of now, H.Res. 569 has been referred to the House Committee on the Judiciary. Americans had better hope that the House Committee will see it for what it is: An attempt to destroy the First Amendment, shield Islam from criticism, and bring "Death to Free Speech."


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The Shale Defaults Begin Here: Banks Quietly Shrink These 25 Companies' Credit Facilities

Here are 25 deeply distressed companies, whose banks we found have quietly shrunk the borrowing base of their credit facilities anywhere from 6% in the case of Black Ridge Oil and Gas to a whopping 51% for soon to be insolvent New Source Energy Partners.


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