• Monetary Metals
    01/28/2015 - 00:28
    It’s terrifying how fast the whole Swiss yield curve sank under the waterline of zero. Now even the 15-year bond has negative interest. The franc has reached the end.

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The Next "Tom Stolper" Has An FX Reco For You: Buy USDJPY

We are happy to report that the P&L drought may have finally ended, and we have none other than the man many have suggested could be next in line for the title of honorary "Tom Stolper" of the FX realm: BofA's technical strategist MacNeill Curry. Moments ago, Curry came out with a trade reco which is, not surprisingly, just in line with what the vast consensus, and not to mention the Bank of Japan, thinks: long USDJPY.



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France 'Proves' Q€ Is Entirely Useless

According to the doctrine of central planners, the idea of Q€ is to lower rates to encourage borrowing (and credit creation) to spark growth and kickstart a virtuous recovery. As the following chart shows, that is total and utter crap... French jobseekers just hit a fresh record high and French rates just hit a record low - and that has been the story for 6 years. So  - just as The Fed was finally forced to admit, Q€ is nothing more than wealth redistribution from all taxpayers to the ultra-rich asset owners who - it is hoped- will bless the plebeians with some trickle-down-ness... with every asset under the moon already at record highs, once again we ask - just what do you think this will achieve Draghi.



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How Capitalism Dies

In the early 1970s, there were about 200,000 new US businesses created each year (net of closures). Now, the number is negative. Why are Americans getting poorer? Look no further. No new businesses (net). No new jobs (again net). No new wealth. Under Obama and Draghi, crony capitalism flourishes. Real capitalism dies.



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WTI Crude Jumps As Saudi Oil Minister Meets With Russian, Finnish, And Norwegian Ambassadors

The Swiss-Franc-inspired spike in crude oil (crazy but true) as Europe opened has seen its highs broken as WTI Crude tests $46 once again following reports of Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi meeting with Rolf Willy Hansen - ambassador of Norway, Oleg Ozerov - ambassador of Russia, and Pekka Voutilainen, ambassador of Finland; to discuss "market stability." Why would that spike oil prices? Because the three are plotting the final destruction of US shale... just as Obama makes an appearance at Abdullah's funeral?



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The Bonds Of The Third Largest Austrian Bank Are Crashing

Last year Austria's largest bank, Erste Bank, sent shudders of Credit Anstalt through the European Banking System. This year it is Austria's 3rd largest bank that is scaring investors senseless. On the heels of the Swiss National Bank's decision to un-peg from the Euro, Raiffeisen Bank's Swiss-Franc-Denominated mortgage worries have resurfaced (along with Russian/Ukraine writedowns) and nowhere is that more evident than the total collapse of the bank's bonds (from over 95c to 65c today). Even after the ECB Q€ (and some apparent intervention to weaken the Swissy) bonds kept free-falling. Perhaps, The Freedom Party's demands for a bailout will grow louder as the contagion concerns across Europe's banking system explode...



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Russian Ruble Extends Gains, Stocks Erase All Post-Downgrade Losses

"That'll teach them Russians" - oh wait... The kneejerk selling of Russian Rubles and stocks post-downgrade has almost entirely been erased and dip-buyers appear to be greatly rotating from US to Russian stocks today...



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EURUSD Surges Above 1.14 As EU Inflation Expectations Tumble To Lowest Since Q€

Draghi, we have a problem. EURUSD is back above 1.14 - having retraced over half the post-Q€ collapse. More troubling though - and the entire raison d'etre of Q€ (according to officials) - forward inflation expectations are now dramatically lower than pre Q€ levels...



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Dow Plunges 360 Points, Erases All Post-QE Gains

The Dow is now down 360 points on the day - its biggest point drop in 19 months. Perhaps more notable is that since the End of QE3, The Dow is now down 0.4% - but the fundamentals we hear you cry...



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Seven Consecutive Downward Reivisions To New Home Sales Data Place Serious Doubts On Report Accuracy

You will pardon us if we don't "buy" the latest attempt by the Census Department to telegraph housing euphoria with the just reported number of 481K new December home sales, a surge of 11.6% compared to November, an increase which was expected by the consensus to be only  2.7%. In fact, the 481K print is now the "highest" since June of 2008. The reason for our disbelief? Because as we have been tracking for the past 6, and now 7 months, every single such euphoric print since May of 2014 has been revised substantially lower after the fact (and after the headline-scanning algos promptly gobbled up stocks on the initial "beat"), and sure enough, the November print of 438K, was also just "revised" downward to 431K.



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Consumer Confidence Surges To Highest Since The Last Time Markets Crashed

Despite stagnant wages, surging jobless claims, and global geopolitical anxiety, US consumers have not been this exuberant since August 2007... a month before the great quant fund blow-up and the top of US equities... But it's different this time, we're got money-printing and low oil prices... right? Texas confidence plunged from 119.4 to 111.9 (led by a huige crash in expectations from 95.8 to 83.5). Finally, expectations for higher incomes in the next 6 months surged higher - almost at record levels of hope - despite the slump in hourly average earnings.



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US Services PMI Improves But New Orders Drop To Post-Recession Low

Just when you hoped the bad news was bad enough to warrant an uber-dovish Fed statement, Markit's US Services PMI prints 54.0, beating estimates of 53.8 and up from December's 53.0. After 6 months of dropping, January's preliminary data rose; however, as Markit notes, new business expansion fell to a post-recession low, “The 5.0% an nualised rate of GDP expansion in the third quarter certainly looks like a peaking in the pace of expansion, with the surveys pointing to 2.5% annualised growth at the start of the year."



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China Leading Index Plunges To 6 Year Lows

Just released this morning, following last night's plunge in industrial profits, China's Leading Index continued its freefall to its lowest level since Jan 2009...



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"Paid To Wait"? Microsoft Tumbles 10%, Destroys 4 Years Of Dividend Gains

Why but bonds when you can buy stocks that earn a higher dividend? "it's the risk, stupid!" Microsoft is down around 10% this morning, the equivalent of almost 4 years of dividend gains... still wanna get "paid to wait."



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"Prospects For A Home Run In 2015 Aren’t Good" - November Case-Shiller Confirms Ongoing Housing Market Slowdown

In a day of furious disappointments, the Case-Shiller housing report, albeit looking at the ancient economic picture as of November, confirmed what most had known: that the growth in housing prices slowed down yet again on not only a Year over Year basis, which rose just 4.31%, the lowest annual increase since October 2012 but also dropped by -0.22% decline on a monthly basis, which may not sound like much, but was the worst monthly drop since February 2012!



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Dow Bloodbath Update - Down Almost 500 Points From Friday's Highs

"Extreme" market volatility conditions... as NYSE explained it.



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