Why They Keep Trade Deals Secret

Thousands of people recently demonstrated in Brussels against free trade deals negotiated by the EU. This happened just days before a meeting of EU trade ministers in Bratislava last month, which was considered the last push to salvage the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the EU and the United States. Not only is Europe divided on the deal, but the talks have been extremely secretive.

Existing Home Sales Growth Stalls As Prices Rise For 55th Straight Month

For the 3rd month in a row, sales of previously owned homes are flat year-over-year. Month-over-month saw a better than expected 3.2% rise in September (ahead of the school year) but SAAR sales remain noisily stuck 25% below 2005's highs. Notably, this is the 55th straight month of year-over-year home price gains.

EUR Jumps And Dumps, Stocks Slide As Draghi Suggests Nothing Lasts Forever

The market is not happy. Hit with a double-whammy of "ECB not discussing an extension of QE beyond March" and that "extraordinary policy support won't last forever." EURUSD jumped, stocks dumped, and Bund yields spiked. However, a quick hint that "an abrupt end to QE is unlikely" helped a little...

Initial Jobless Claims Jump Most In Over 5 Months Off 43 Year Lows

By now we have shown every possible divergence between the ongoing collapse in jobless claims (everything is awesome) as practically every manufacturing and service economy hard data print suggests the exact opposite. So this week, we just notice that initial claims jump over 5% this week to 260k - the biggest weekly rise since May... probably nothing.

ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged

The ECB was not expected to change any of its three main refinancing rates in today's announcement and it did not disappoint, keeping the Main Refinancing Rate unchanged at 0.0%, and its marginal lending and deposit facility rates at 0.25% and -.40% respectively.

Frontrunning: October 20

  • Global stocks nudge higher after final U.S. presidential debate (Reuters)
  • Trump, Clinton Double Down: Final Debate By the Numbers (BBG)
  • Will Trump accept election's outcome? 'I will keep you in suspense' (Reuters)
  • After Sedate Start, Trump Takes the Bait (WSJ)
  • ‘Rigged’ Election Charge Takes Spotlight (WSJ)

Will Draghi Avert A Tantrum: The Full ECB Checklist

Draghi will make clear that tapering has not yet even been considered. He will emphasize that the program runs until March, at least, and so they have plenty of time to plan the exit. There’ll be no taper-tantrum today. Far from tapering, it’s likely that the Asset Purchase Program will be prolonged even further beyond March, although perhaps not formally so at this meeting. An extension will require technical adjustments that may need more time to work out.