Durable Goods Orders Crash Most In 2 Years - Longest Non-Recessionary Streak Of Declines In US History

Despite the longest winning streak for US macro data in US history, Durable Goods Orders collapsed in June. The 4% MoM plunge (vs -1.4% exp) is the biggest drop since Aug 2014. This represents a 6.6% YoY crash - the biggest drop since July 2015. The drop appears driven by  plunge in airplane orders (non-defense aircraft and parts). Worse still, core durable goods orders extended their annual declines to 18 months straight - the longest non-recessionary streak of declines in US history.

Dan Loeb Compares Managing Money In 2016 To A "Game Of Thrones" Slaughter

"Watching Jon Snow’s epic “Battle of the Bastards” scene in the penultimate episode of this season’s Game of Thrones gives investors a sense of how it has felt to manage money during some periods over the past year. Surging enemies forming a seemingly  impossible perimeter, a crush of fellow soldiers on the field, arrows coming in overhead..."

Frontrunning: July 27

  • Democrat Clinton makes history with U.S. presidential nomination (Reuters)
  • Democrats Achieve an Uneasy Détente at Convention (WSJ)
  • Obama Economy Left Behind the Backers That Clinton Needs to Win (BBG)
  • European stocks rise, Asia lifted by Japan stimulus (Reuters)
  • PM Abe's plan for $265 billion stimulus puts pressure on BOJ to ease (Reuters)

Global Stocks, Futures Continue Rise On Apple, Japan Stimulus; Yellen On Deck

The markets were following a rollercoaster night for the Japanese Yen, when after several media headlines Abe was said to have announced a stimulus package that would be more than JPY28 trillion, sending Japanese stocks higher 1.7% while the USDJPY spiked but well off overnight highs, pushing risk assets higher. Europe and US futs were also in the green on optimism from AAPL's earnings, but all eyes will be on today's FOMC announcement.

Assange: "A Lot More Material" Will Be Released

Wikileaks founder Julian Assange said Tuesday his whistleblowing website might release "a lot more material" relevant to the US electoral campaign. Assange was speaking in a CNN interview following the release of nearly 20,000 emails stolen from the Democratic National Committee by suspected Russian hackers.

Unsound Money Has Destroyed The Middle Class

Prolonged stagnation, cultural upheavals and policy failures are combining to shake the balance between democratic legitimacy and global order...The candidacy of Mr. Trump is a result. Those who reject the chauvinist response must come forward with imaginative and ambitious ideas aimed at reestablishing that balance... Our civilization itself is at stake.

The Day Data-Dependence Died: US Macro Has Longest-Winning Streak In History

Something 'odd' is going on. Amid the plethora of 11-foot-tall-men multiple-standard deviation beats in recent economic data, the Citi Macro Surprise Index did something it has never done before - it rose for 21 days straight. After 18 months of disappointment, out of nowhere, the index ripped higher at the fastest rate since 2009 to its highest since Jan 2014. With China calm, Brexit behind us, US equities at record highs, volatility at near-record lows, and macro data trends never been better... what possible excuse does a 'data-dependent' Fed have for not hiking rates today?

Beware The "Crisis Actors" - Goring, Erdogan, Krugman, Cramer, Draghi, Yellen

Crisis acting isn’t found in the secret construction of a crime scene. It’s found in the public construction of a social Narrative. It’s found in the public statements of the Missionaries (to use the game theory term) who create Common Knowledge — what everyone knows that everyone knows...Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi and their central bank Missionary kin are also crisis actors, pretending that their “emergency policies”, now more than seven years old, are anything less than a permanent political shift in the global allocation of money and credit.

Stop Drinking The Kool-Aid, America: Political Fiction In An Age Of Televised Lies

Make no mistake: Americans only think they’re choosing the next president. In truth, however, they’re engaging in the illusion of participation culminating in the reassurance ritual of voting. It’s just another Blue Pill, a manufactured reality conjured up by the matrix in order to keep the populace compliant and convinced that their vote counts and that they still have some influence over the political process. Stop drinking the Kool-Aid, America.

Yen Plunges On Yet Another Strawman Headline About Stimulus, Then Surges On Denial

That didn't last long - Japan Ministry of Finance say it is not true they are considering 50yr bonds - debunking earlier WSJ story --Rtrs

USDJPY just spiked back over 106.00 after headlines suggesting Japanese PM Shinzo Abe will unveil new stimulus as soon as today. News reports on 27t yen fiscal stimulus and issuance of 50-year bond, both spur yen selling, says David Lu, HK-based director at NBC Financial Markets Asia. We suspect there will be some disappointment after the algos are finished as FNN reports the package will include 13t yen of low-interest loans (so a smaller helicopter than expected) and besides, it's not like the Japanese are suffering from rate being too high.

New Legislation Proposes To "Bail-In' Social Security

Even Social Security knows that they’re bankrupt and unable to keep their promises to taxpayers... Well, the government has figured out a solution. And it’s genius. Meet The SAVE-UP Act - “Secure, Accessible, Valuable, Efficient Universal Pension Accounts Act”.

DNC Day 2: Raucous Roll-Call & Bubba Speaks - Live Feed

If you thought yesterday was chaos - with Debbie down, moaning media, booing Bernie fans - today could start with another raucous rabble as the state roll-call vote will take place. Debbie Wassserman Schultz's just-as-biased replacement Donna Brazile will address the crowd (grab the popcorn), as will Nancy Pelosi, but the headliner of the night - surely there to doom-and-gloom more evil Trumpiness - is Bill Clinton.

"We Live In A Dystopic, Orwellian Ball Of Crazy"

"Make no mistake, humanity is being put into a state of constant vertigo; a psychological daze meant to keep us completely distracted from the reality that our cultural collapse is by design and serves the interests of a select elitist minority. Think things are strange now? They are about to get far worse in the coming months, I guarantee it..."

Might The Donald Be Good For Peace?

Trump says that the US has to "fix our own mess" before "lecturing" other nations on how to behave. No matter how extreme he may be in some of his statements, that one strikes a truly sensible note. Why does America consider that it has the right to hector and lecture China and Russia and so many other countries? It is, of course, because, as Obama announced, America considers itself the "one indispensable nation in world affairs."

Dead 'Market' Walking: Chinese Stock Volatility Crashes Near Record Lows

When Chinese authorities took over the day-to-day management and support of their collapsing stock market in August 2015, it was not just volume that died. From over 110, short-term volatility in China's major stock market - Shanghai Composite - has collapsed to single-digits this week. This is among the least volatile period in the index's history, despite increased uncertainty around stimulus and economic transition.