The Death Cross Of Central Bank Credibility

With no expectations of a rate-hike this week, and traders rapidly giving up on The Fed's dream of a steadily higher rate trajectory, a funny thing happened in the markets...

WTI Jumps Above $48 After API Inventory Report Shows Huge Crude Draw

The recent trend of inventory draws (in crude and products) has supported higher Brent and WTI prices (the latter testing $48 today) despite surging production. API reported more of the same with a much larger than expected draw (-10.2mm vs -3mm exp), sending WTI above $48. All was not perfect in the report however as gasoline saw an unexpected build.

What If The Debt Ceiling Turns Ugly: How To Trade A Fall Spike In Volatility

"We think volatility is unlikely to sustain these extreme lows in the fall and like selling Oct VIX puts as (i) seasonal patterns suggest the VIX troughs in Jul and peaks in Sep/Oct, (ii) the VIX has “settled” below 12 in only two of the past 27 Octobers, and (iii) fundamentally, the threat of debt ceiling brinkmanship in Sep/Oct, which has already spooked the T-bill market, should help support equity volatility."

There Is Only One Empire: Finance

As for hegemony and empire - be careful what you wish for. Life outside the financial bubble is much more contingent and risky than life inside the bubbl - until it pops.

When Will The ECB Run Out Of German Bunds To Buy: Here Is The Math

If the ECB were to reduce the pace of QE to €40bn per month starting in January, it should not run out of German government bonds to purchase until early 2019. On the other hand, if it keeps the current pace of QE, it will run out of paper in late 2018, and even with a downward revised €40bn monthly total, the ECB will have almost no German bonds left to buy in 2019.

The Elites Are Privately Warning About A Crash

"...demand for secure vaulting space in major financial centers like London and Frankfurt is soaring. There are plenty of bank safe deposit boxes in those cities, but investors are insisting on non-bank vaults because investors understand that the banks cannot be trusted in a panic"

When Do We Know These Are Delusional Markets

Signs of complacency and disconnect from fundamentals abound. So to sanity check, it may still be helpful to periodically remind ourselves of a few recent ones. Here, in no particular order, are seven of the most glaring signs.