The initial refugee welcome in Germany is rapidly turning to rejection as the nation plan to ban EU migrants from most unemployment benefits for five years after arrival as a senior German politician has called for an "Islam law" that would limit the influence of foreign imams and prohibit the foreign financing of mosques in Germany. As The FT reports, the proposals, which are far tougher than had been expected even a few months ago, highlight the government’s concern over growing public anxiety about immigration and the related advance of the Alternative for Germany party, the most popular rightwing grouping since the second world war.
Gold first closed above $1300 on September 29th 2010, 67 months ago; and as investors' faith in Central Banks falters - with The Dow down over 400 points (and Nikkei 225 down 1700 points!) from the scene of Kuroda's Kamikaze decision, gold has soared up above $1299...
If the NY Fed is right, what does this mean in practical terms? Simple: assuming no revisions to Q1 GDP, and assuming Q2 GDP of 0.8%, then the US would have to grow at 3.8% to hit the Fed's central tendency forecast of 2.2% GDP growth as per its latest forecast.
Perhaps it is merely a coincidence but just weeks after Deutsche Bank became the first bank to admit to rigging the gold market (and agreeing to rat out fellow manipulators) yesterday afternoon the head of Deutsche Bank's "integrity committee" announced he would resign two years before his time, which is a polite way of saying he was fired.
With the Yen and Yuan surging, it appears money is greatly rotating out of US dollars and into an 'alternative' currency as Gold soars over $1290. More problematically for Goldman Sachs' Jeff Currie is his "Short Gold" recommendation just got stopped out...
After being just fractionally above the official Q1 GDP print which yesterday came in at 0.5%, moments ago the Atlanta Fed unveiled its first Q2 GDP estimate which it sees at 1.8%, roughly 0.5% below the sellside average estimate of 2.3%, and just in line with the lowest forecast.
As June looms, The Fed - having dropped 'some' of its global event risk language in the latest statement - is now desperate for an excuse to not hike rates (or face a total loss of credibility). Judging by Fed's Kaplan, they just found it...
*KAPLAN SAYS FED WILL WATCH U.K. POLLS ON BREXIT CLOSELY IN JUNE
Which is a problem as 'Brexit' just moved into the lead among YouGov polls.
The banquet of consequences is about to be served.
Despite surging stock prices in April, UMich's final Consumer Sentiment print slipped to 89.0 (from 89.7 prelim and 91.0 previous) notably below expectations and the lowest since September 2015. Under the covers though, it was "hope" that really plunged, as Consumer expectations dropped to 77.0 - the lowest since September 2014. However, worst of all for The Fed is that medium-term inflation expectations tumbled back to 2.5% record lows.
In one of the least surprising highlights from the ongoing earnings season, yesterday we reported that as oil continues to rise, US shale companies are starting to resume mothballed production. And now, according to the latest Reuters production survey, in the aftermath of the failed Doha oil freeze agreement, OPEC will be the next to boost production in the coming month, expanding supplies from an already oversupplied 32.46MMb/d to 32.64MMb/d. Finally, Reuters just blasted that Saudi Arabia is boosting its exports to near-record high levels.
March's dead-cat-bounce in Chicago PMI (like January's) has died again as the business barometer drops to just 50.4 (from 53.6) missing expectations of 52.6. This barely-above-contractionary level was driven by an 11-point collapse in Order backlogs to the lowest since Dec 2015, and as MNI reports, "order patterns continued to be plagued by a lack of large orders and absence of international demand, purchasers said."
"...there clearly is a Yellen put, but over the last two meetings it's been extended to include global risk markets... I think they're acknowledging that the Fed is the world's global central banker."
Following the drastically revised-away surge in spending in January, and the savings rate surge to 2012 highs in Feb, March's income and spending data released today showed more problems for The Fed. While income grew 0.4% MoM (more than the 0.3% expectations), spending disappointed with a mere 0.1% rise (against +0.2% MoM expectations). Year-over-year spending growth slowed to 3.5% - the weakest since December and income growth slowed to 4.0% YoY leaving the savings rate at its highest since December 2012.