Now that we’re in the classic “crash season,” the situation only looks worse. This season technically started in mid-August, and won’t end until mid-October. This is not to say the chaos won’t continue later on into the end of this year. It just means the worst decline, this first wave down, is likely to come in the next several weeks. So consider this current bounce a gift. The signs are all there that this global bubble is done. Use this time to get out of any passive investments in stocks.
Bridgewater's 'All-Weather' Fund Goes Negative For 2015 After Risk-Parity's Worst Quarter Since LehmanSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/03/2015 - 17:24
The $80 billion Bridgewater All Weather Fund, a risk-parity model managed by hedge fund titan Ray Dalio, was down 4.2% in August, according to Reuters citing two people familiar with the fund's performance. This leaves the fund down 3.76% for 2015 as the frameworks for these funds are forced mechanically to reposition as correlations and volatilities across asset classes break down. Just as we saw in the summer of 2013's Taper Tantrum, the last 2 weeks have seen 4 to 5 sigma swings in daily returns and 'generic' risk-parity funds have suffered the biggest 3-month losses since the financial crisis.
To answer the question: yes, the US recession is hiding just under the "question mark" at the unexplained and perplexing divergence between industrial production, and actual end sales all of which result in a record inventory stockpiling which as we showed before, is what recently boosted Q2 GDP to an unsustainable 3.7% growth rate.
"There is no reason to embarrass the president of China..."
"...we live in an age in which the policies of the past are coming to an end. The Keynesian model does not work, and our Empire does not work. This total failure has to change, and we need to present the alternative."
"... we estimate that only about half (or slightly more than half) of total technical selling was completed to-date (mostly completed by VT funds, half by CTAs, and a smaller fraction by RPs). We estimate that a further ~$100bn of selling remains to be completed over the next 1-3 weeks. As a result, we expect elevated volatility and downside price risk to persist."
Back in early 2014, when IRS director Lois Lerner pleaded the Fifth, it became clear that not all is well with the official narrative. Fast forward to this week when another prominent democrat caught up in another email scandal has just indicated they would plead the Fifth. And no, its not Hillary Clinton, at least not yet, but her former staffer, Bryan Pagliano, who oversaw her private email server. As reported by Politico, he too plans to invoke his Fifth Amendment right not to answer incriminating questions before the House Benghazi Committee, according to a letter his lawyer sent the panel.
While the market nervously eyes the petrodollar reserves of Saudi Arabia and the UAE as the countries juggle domestic expenditures, dollar pegs, and the cost of war, Yemen itself is coming apart at the seams - literally. As WSJ reports, it now looks as though the country may in fact split, as Aden residents have eschewed the red, white and black for the flag of South Yemen, which existed as an independent republic for more than two decades.
We live in a Fiat economy where growth is fuelled by debt, and less and less from productivity and demographics. This takes place in a closed circuit with the US dollar as the reserve currency. The problem now is that the economy can not get restarted without changes to one or several parameters. Simply put, this fiat economy is unsustainable and must change, and we must adjust to slower growth and start actually producing.
Leading Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump appears to have just gone 'all-in'...
*TRUMP SAYS HE'S SIGNED PLEDGE NOT TO RUN AS 3RD PARTY CANDIDATE
And while he was at it, he took a jab at Hillary as "the worst secretary of state in the history of the world." . Maybe The Economist is on to something.
"The opening of the new units will feed an artificially created confrontation. [This is] the logic of the Cold War. It runs counter to genuine interests of the European and regional security." - Alexander Grushko, Russian ambassador to NATO.
Welcome To Liberland: The Tiny Strip Of Land In Europe Where 360,000 People Have Applied For CitizenshipSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/03/2015 - 13:33
"If we accepted everyone, we would be larger than Iceland." – Liberland founder, Vit Jedlicka