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Grexit Lives As "Deluded" Forecasters Predict The Unpredictable

Update: SCHAEUBLE: GREECE FREE TO SEEK RUSSIAN AID, MAY NOT GET MUCH

As Greeks take to the streets, Varoufakis calls predictions about Grexit reverberations delusional, and Bloomberg proposes a list of Greek default scenarios. Meanwhile, central banks move to ringfence Greek exposure and analysts scramble to outline the risk of bank runs, capital controls, and contagion. 



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Bonds Drop, Dollar Pops After Hotter-Than-Expected Inflation

Stocks - for now - are ambivalent to the highest core CPI in 5 months; but the grown-up markets in bonds and FX are taking notice. The Dollar has surged (led by EUR weakness) and long-bond yields are up 5bps (back to unchanged on the week).



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Core Inflation Jumps Most Since October Due To Rent, Healthcare Costs

Following February's big bounce back MoM, Consumer Prices in March rose 0.2% MoM (less than the expected 0.3% rise) but it is YoY that is the great news for Americans. CPI fell 0.1% YoY in March (below expectations of unch) which means Consumer Prices haven't risen YoY in 3 months. However, while this clear disinflationary signal is peersisrtent, Core CPI continued to rise 1.8% from last year  (above the 1.7% consensus) driven by big jumps in the cost of shelter (thank you Fed) and healthcare (thank you Govt); which should send shivers through the risk-bulls as The Fed may be forced to pull rate hikes forward.



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Greek Bank "Quarantine" Abroad Sparks European Selloff

A large number of European countries have effectively quarantined Greece in a bid to minimize the consequences on their credit systems in case of a Greek "accident." As ekathimerini reports, the actions are being taken in order to shield themselves and minimize the danger of contagion in case the negotiations between the Greek government and the eurozone do not bear fruit. This has sparked broad-based selling across global risk assets but particularly in Europe. Stocks from Germany to Spain are having their worst day of the year, European sovereign bond risk is exploding higher (contagion Mr. Schaeuble?), and Greek bank bonds and stocks are getting crushed.



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Frontrunning: April 17

  • Fed Shies Away From June Rate Hike (Hilsenrath)
  • Europe Stocks Fall Most in Three Weeks Amid Greece as Banks Drop (BBG)
  • China Futures Tumble on Trust Curbs, Expansion of Short Selling (BBG)
  • Oil slips below $64 as ample supplies weigh (Reuters)
  • Fed officials lean all ways on rate hikes, data in focus (Reuters)
  • Eurozone deflation eases in March (FT)


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This Is China's Short Selling Announcement Which Sent Chinese Futures Plunging

As noted earlier, while tens of thousands of Bloomberg terminal users were twiddling their thumbs during an outage that lasted several hours, China crashed.  There was some confusion about the cause of the rapid move, but it appears the catalyst was an announcement by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in which it allowed fund managers to lend shares for short-selling, and will also expand the number of stocks investors can short sell, in a bid to raise the supply of securities in the market.



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Conspiracy Theorists, Bloggers Compared To ISIS During Congressional Hearing

Bloggers, conspiracy theorists and people who challenge establishment narratives on the Internet were all likened to ISIS terrorists during a chilling Congressional hearing which took place yesterday. As linguist Noam Chomsky said, “The idea that there should be a network reaching people, which does not repeat the US propaganda system, is intolerable” to the US establishment.



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How Children Of The 0.001% Choose Their College

Why endure a five-hour drive from Manhattan to Cornell in a rental car, when for just $150,000 you can undertake a 12-leg American college tour in the comfort of your own Gulfstream G200? As The NY Post reports, "dozens of families are taking advantage of the convenience by visiting colleges this way," which includes introductions to "high-profile alumni," such as athletes and successful businesspeople. It seems to us that everyone should have this opportunity - free private-jet college tours for all!



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No Matter Who Wins The White House, The New Boss Will Be The Same As The Old Boss

The American people remain eager to be persuaded that a new president in the White House can solve the problems that plague us. Yet no matter who wins this next presidential election, you can rest assured that the new boss will be the same as the old boss, and we - the permanent underclass in America - will continue to be forced to march in lockstep with the police state in all matters, public and private. It really doesn’t matter what you call them - the 1%, the elite, the controllers, the masterminds, the shadow government, the police state, the surveillance state, the military industrial complex - so long as you understand that no matter which party occupies the White House in 2017, the unelected bureaucracy that actually calls the shots will continue to do so.



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Hong Kong Insanity Launches Exchange Operator's Shares Into Orbit

Because the only thing more exciting than betting on the continuation of a margin-fueled, self-feeding domestic mania is betting on the exchange where the maniacs are trading...



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Is This How The Bank Of Japan "Signals" It Is About To Boost QE?

As we have noted previously, The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is one of a handful of central banks that trade on global stock markets. The finance ministry holds a 55% stake of the Jasdaq-traded security, which as one analyst noted "seems like an odd investment." However, it appears BoJ shares serve a different purpose - to signal an imminent easing to the market. As Bloomberg reports, BoJ stock has surged almost 30% in the last few days on very heavy volume... the previous 4 times we saw spikes in price and volume, Japanese authorities eased significantly in the following days.



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Greece May Pay Wages And Pensions In IOUs

Greece could "issue IOUs to pay public sector workers and pensioners and free up money to repay its debts. But this could cause economic chaos if fears that the IOUs would never be paid sparked riots or public sector employees simply refused to work."



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Cop Sues NYPD Over Quotas, Slams The Racketeering Culture

"The culture is, you're not working unless you are writing summonses or arresting people...  Those tickets might look like productivity on paper... but they're not actually making anyone safer."



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Mario Draghi, Collateral Scarcity, And Why The ECB Will Soon Buy Corporate Bonds

Mario Draghi, perhaps blinded by confetti, doesn't see a scarcity of collateral while HSBC thinks that's a bit "strange," and Morgan Stanley doesn't really see what the problem is even as their own analysis shows that it is now "impossible" for Germany to fully implement their portion of the program under the capital key. Meanwhile, FT thinks it's possibly important that thanks to the absurd consequences of NIRP-dom, the ECB may soon take the plunge into euro corporate credit sending yields on corporate bonds negative.



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San Antonio Woman Fined $2000 For Feeding The Homeless

Based on the newsflow in the last few weeks, Americans must increasingly consider themselves lucky just to avoid getting shot in the back or being run over by trigger-happy, heavily armed officers of the law. Unfortunately while we (hope we) mostly jest, the reality is that America has quietly turned into a heavily weaponized police state right under everyone's noses. A police state in which one doesn't have to be considered even a remote threat by the authorities to suffer. Consider the completely innocuous act of feeding the homeless, with a permit, which as San Antonio philanthropist Joan Cheever, founder of the nonprofit food truck, the Chow Train, discovered last week was enough to get her ticketed and fined $2000 for feeding the homeless.



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