We're often asked whether we really believe that government and policymakers intentionally create laws and policies that hurt the people and help themselves. The answer is typically that, “if you’re asking me this question you know I do but you don’t believe me; so either do your own research or continue to live in the world as you wish to perceive it. I’m not here to beg you to open your f##king eyes.”
"Thanks to President Obama’s leadership and the determination and sacrifice of the American people, we’ve worked our way out of that ditch and put our economy on sounder footing. Now we have to keep going.
To prevent irresponsible behavior on Wall Street from ever again devastating Main Street, we need more accountability, tougher rules and stronger enforcement. I have a plan to build on the progress we’ve made under President Obama and do just that."
Forget Norway. Japan. Iceland. Switzerland. Or any of the other places around the world that are notorious for being painful on the wallet. Venezuela is now the most expensive country in the world, hands down. To give you an idea, the cost of a 15-minute taxi ride to the beach yesterday afternoon totaled an eye-popping $158.
UPDATE: Stocks are now soaring after we noted the initial reaction...
A decidedly dovish FOMC Minutes, warning that the economy is not ready for rate-hikes, has driven rate-hike odds to their lows once again. December and January odds are now below 50% and markets are reacting with bond, crude, and bullion buying, dollar selling and stocks uncertainty.
"During their discussion of economic conditions and monetary policy, participants indicated that they did not see the changes in asset prices during the intermeeting period as bearing significantly on their policy choice except insofar as they affected the outlook for achieving the Committee’s macroeconomic objectives and the risks associated with that outlook."
WSJ’s Fed whisperer is always good for a bit of Eccles propaganda and so, for whatever it's worth to you, we present the following Hilsy interpretation of the just-released minutes from the “most important” Fed meeting in recent history.
FOMC Minutes Confirm Economy Not Ready For Rate-Hike This Year, Worried About Inflation, "Global Risk"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 - 14:04
Given the tumble and stock save since September's infamous "chickening out" FOMC Meeting, investors hope today's minutes will provide some color on just how close Janet and her merry men were to pulling the trigger:
- *FED OFFICIALS SAID `PRUDENT' TO WAIT FOR CLARITY ON OUTLOOK
- *FOMC MINUTES: MOST PARTICIPANTS SEE LIFTOFF CONDITIONS MET THIS YR
- *FOMC MINUTES: ALL BUT ONE MEMBER SAID ECON COND DIDN'T WARRANT HIKE
With all the blame pinned on global turmoil (which has now "calmed" apparently) the S&P 500 has roundtripped to unchanged post-FOMC and given these minutes which suggest this was not a close-call at all. However, this was before the Sept payrolls data.
Pre-FOMC Minutes: S&P Futs 1988.25, 10Y 2.095%, Gold $1145, EUR 1.1285
"The force that they have deployed down there is actually quite impressive for a rapid deployment of a week or so. It is all arms, combined arms, attack aircraft, it is the attack helicopters and artillery, rocket artillery. NATO is ready and able to defend all allies, including Turkey against any threats."
Frequent followers of the German public campaign “Repatriate our Gold“ already know how intensively we have been struggling since 2011 (and longer) with Deutsche Bundesbank to finally – after more than 50 years of external storage of Germany’s gold – get credible transparency regarding this matter. Some progress was brought about recently (2012 disclosure of the whereabouts of Germany´s gold by BuBa; 2013 partial repatriation plan announced by BuBa; 2013 and ongoing through 2015 alleged physical repatriation of approximately 200 tons to date – equaling approximately 10% of Germany’s gold abroad). But real proof and transparency is still lacking from Bundesbank’s side!
“If the US is serious about ensuring that China does not dominate these waters, then the longer it waits, the riskier its freedom-of-navigation activities will become.”
If you’re a fan of dovish policymakers who are committed to Keynesian insanity, you can always count on Minneapolis Fed chief Narayana Kocherlakota who is out today with the latest hint that NIRP is coming to America.
Just two weeks after House speaker John Boehner dramatically announced his premature resignation without cause from his position seemingly in an attempt to difuse the tension within the GOP, there has been another just as dramatic development when moments ago we learned that Boehner's chosen successor Kevin McCarthy has withdrawn his candidacy for the speaker position: "While I am grateful for the encouragement I’ve received, I will not be a candidate." This puts in jeopardy not only any future negotiations over US government funding when the continuing resolution expires in mid-December but more importantly puts into question what happens with the US debt ceiling when the US government runs out of emergency measures some time in early November as Jack Lew has warned is the deadline for getting a deal struck.
Following two stellar auctions earlier this week, when both the 3 and 10 Year showed substantial demand, and in the case of the latter a near record surge in foreign central bank takedown, today's final 30Year auction went without a glitch as the Treasury sold $13 billion in the RN0 reopening, which priced at 2.914%, through the When Issued 2.917%, lower than the 2.98% in September, and virtually unchanged from the yield the 30Y paid at the last auction of 2014. In other words, just like stocks, so the long end of the curve has gone exactly nowhere in 2015.