"It is the inverse of Keynes, where there is no consideration at all except for the long run and how some unknowable magic combination of policies will surely make it such a happy and prosperous place – even though none so far have come close."
According to the American Society of Civil Engineers, the United States currently has an “infrastructure gap”. If the discrepancy is not closed between what needs to be invested in infrastructure and what is actually invested, it could ultimately create a $4 trillion drag on GDP by 2025. As a result, between 2016 and 2025, each American household will lose $3,400 in disposable income due to infrastructure inefficiencies.
The battle lines are forming... Take away the undeserved from the undeserving and you get a tantrum. Steal the earned from those who earned it and you get righteous rage. One’s a firecracker, the other a volcano.
"The fact this bill, which the President has said flat-out he will make it work for all Americans in general, can't pass is an indication this agenda is going to be more ambitious than this Congress can work with.... It is an indication that investors should not expect the kind of velocity in terms of agenda accomplishments they were expecting when he was elected."
During his 1928 election campaign, President Herbert Hoover defined the 'American Dream' as "a chicken in every pot and a car in every garage." And while the chickens and cars (courtesy of massive subprime auto loan bubble) don't seem to be much of a problem these days, for Americans in over half of the largest cities in the country, owning a home is.
Following two days of utter chaos in Washington D.C., the Republicans in the House have finally called it quits and laid to rest, at least for now, efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare. Tune in here as Paul Ryan attempts to explain the failure.
'Reflation'-themed fund-flows are fading fast (with equities, cyclicals outflows accelerating), and 'higher rate beneficiaries'-linked bond flows (bank loans, HY, inflation protected) slowing to multi-month lows. As RBC's head of cross-asset strategy, Charlie McElligott notes, their model shows the ETF inflow story is no longer a price-driver of short term stock market pricing... "it's a new regime."
With tail risk hedges (SKEW) at record highs, and normal risk hedges (VIX) beginning to rise, it appears anxiety over Trump-Trades is growing. This week saw VIX options activity soar to its highest since Brexit (led by bearish market VIX Call volumes). VIX over 13 yesterday was 2017's highs, but remains notably below the 'norms'.
So, the long and the short of it is that the RussiaGate story is spinning out of control, and Trump’s adversaries - who go well beyond Congress into the Deep State - might be getting enough leverage to dump Trump. Either they will maneuver him and his people into some kind of perjury rap, or they will tie up the government in such a web of investigative procedural rigmarole that all the country lawyers who ever snapped their galluses will never be able to unravel it.
"How does this work, you have the right to call Erdogan a ‘dictator’ but Erdogan doesn’t have the right to call you ‘fascist’ and ‘Nazi?’” the Turk said in an interview with CNN-Turk and Kanal D television channels. "They accuse me then they speak of Erdogan as a dictator."
With crude production at 13-month highs, the trend of rising rig counts (now up 10 weeks in a row) suggests OPEC remains anything but in control as the global inventory glut deepens. The last week saw the oil rig count rise by 21 (the most since January) to 652 - the highest since September 2015.