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Who Is Right Between Oil And Other Commodities: One Hedge Fund's Opinion

So far in May, base metals and Oil decoupled markedly. While the Oil price kept rising and moved closer to 50$, base metals fell off a cliff and descended below March lows.  We believe that Oil is the errant outlier, helped by deep but temporary supply outages in Canada and Nigeria and all-time record speculative flows, and is more likely to catch down to other commodities going forward rather than the other way round. We look at Oil gyrations as short-term heavy volatility, within a long-term downward trend.


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FBI's Own Report Exposes "War On Cops" As Pure Propaganda

Following a year in which the public was relentlessly barraged with alarmist rhetoric about a “war on cops” and the dreadful impact of the so-called “Ferguson Effect,” official FBI statistics confirm that violent line-of-duty police deaths declined precipitously in 2015.


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The Fed's Loss Of Credibility Is Real: This Is What It Looks Like

Asset markets aren't prepared for a hawkish Fed. As Bloomberg's Richard Breslow notes Fed speakers have even taken to the Sunday talk shows to beat the rate-rise drum as economics is morphing into punditry. They’re going to raise rates because they can, are independent, apolitical and can’t be bullied by foreigners. The numbers notwithstanding...


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The CME Admits Futures Trading Was Rigged Under Old System

CME Group Inc., the world’s largest exchange operator, just completed an upgrade traders said would eliminate a shortcoming that gave some participants an advantage. Under the old system, data connections that linked customers to CME -- where key products like Treasury futures and contracts tied to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index trade -- had noticeably different speeds, opening up the potential for gaming, according to traders and other experts. Those who knew how to gain faster access could increase their odds of being first in line to trade.


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Wheelbarrow Economics

In 1922, Germany was up to its eyes in debt, to the point that it was beyond repayment. The government, in attempting to overcome the dire poverty that had developed, decided to print more paper banknotes. The printing didn’t (and couldn’t) solve the problem, so they printed more. Then more again... The reader may say to himself, “When will people learn?” Sadly, they don’t. Incredibly, when the reichsmark collapsed in 1923, no one blamed the excessive printing. In fact, many people felt that if only the printing had continued just a bit longer, everything might have been all right. What we can take away from this is that what happened in Weimar Germany in 1922–1923 is happening now in Venezuela in 2016. (And has happened in some twenty other countries over the last hundred years, most recently in Argentina in 2000 and in Zimbabwe in 2008.) The same will occur in Europe and America in the fairly near future.


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We're In The Eye Of A Global Financial Hurricane

The global financial system is in the eye of an unprecedented hurricane. While central bankers are congratulating themselves on their god-like mastery of Nature, and secretly praying to the idols of the Keynesian Cargo Cult every night, the inevitable consequence of borrowing from the future, the obsession with "growth" at any cost and financialization /monetary stimulus, a.k.a. the rich get richer thanks to central banks is systemic collapse.


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Here’s How The U.S. Government Treats Whistleblowers

Edward Snowden has called for a complete overhaul of US whistleblower protections after a new source from deep inside the Pentagon came forward with a startling account of how the system became a “trap” for those seeking to expose wrongdoing. The account of John Crane, a former senior Pentagon investigator, appears to undermine Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and other major establishment figures who argue that there were established routes for Snowden other than leaking to the media.


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"Pre-Crime" Arrives In Chicago - Big Data Tells Cops Who's Next To Be Shot

In Chicago, where homicides are out of control and estimated to top 550 in 2016 (the most since 2012), police are so desperate to correct the problem that they are throwing good old fashioned police work to the wind, and turning to 'Minority Report'-esque algorithms to do the work for them.


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Kyle Bass Was Right: SocGen Does The Math On China's Staggering NPL Problem, Issues Dire Warning

"As SOE restructuring progresses, it will also become more apparent that Chinese banks need to be rescued. We estimate that the total losses in the banking sector could reach CNY8 trillion, equivalent to more than 60% of commercial banks’ capital, 50% of fiscal revenues and 12% of GDP."


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Prescription Pain-Killers: "Far Riskier" Than Gun Ownership

One of the most beat to death gun control arguments is “Your odds of dying go WAY higher if you have a gun in the home! No one should own guns, guns are deadly!” Now replace the word “gun” with “opioid-based painkillers” – yes, I mean the Percocets, Vicodins, Oxycontins, and all the others. Now your argument is somewhere between 5 and 107 times as pertinent, depending on the classification of suicide, and addiction/accessibility.


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South Africa's Standard Bank Victim Of "Perfectly Coordinated Attack" In Japanese ATM Scam

In what has been described as "a sophisticated, coordinated fraud incident," more than 100 people withdrew $13 million from 1400 ATMs across Japan in less than three hours. The coordinated heist involved forged credit cards, and data stolen from South Africa's Standard Bank.


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Understanding Societal Collapse: Warnings From Venezuela's Crisis

"For the average "middle class" person in Venezuela -- educated and still holding on to a good job -- he needs two years of wages to buy a single plane ticket in his own currency. He's stuck there. The problem is that he waited too long to leave... You can't even find some land and grow your own food. You cannot do that when you have the government stealing it from you. It’s a no win situation."


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Hedge Fund CIO Explains Why Most Missed The Oil Rally

"Oil is a 60 vol instrument,” said the CIO. “If you’re targeting 10 vol for your fund, how much oil could you own?” he asked. “At most you put 15% of your fund in the trade.” Meaning you had nothing else in the book. “So imagine you caught 50% of the 70% crude rally. Your absolute best case would’ve been a 7.5% gross return.... Realistically your best case was more likely +2.5% on this heroic rally, which is why the industry is broken.”


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Ron Paul: Much Ado About Restrooms

Some say government must be involved in the debate over what bathroom transgender individuals should use in order to ensure that private businesses do not violate individual rights. Those who make this claim are accepting the idea that rights are no more than a gift from the government that can be revoked at the will and whim of legislators and bureaucrats. This argument turns rights from a shield protecting our liberties into a sword that can and will be used to increase government control of our lives.


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