By monetizing more than the entire Japanese budget deficit, the BOJ is running of out willing sellers. Without those, Japan's QE, just like that of the ECB, will grind to a halt. Better yet, this creates a vicious loop, because with every passing month, the inevitable D-Day when the BOJ has no more TSYs on the offer gets closer, which in turn will force those who bought stocks to sell in anticipation of the end of QE, and to seek the safety of bonds themsleves, in effect precipitating the next inevitable Japanese stock market crash.
Democrats are the happiest relative to Republicans in over 3 months according to Bloomberg's Consumer Comfort index. In fact, whether because the market is tumbling or The Donald is soaring, Republican 'comfort' is the lowest since Nov 2014 while Democrat 'comfort' remains relatively stable...
Markit's US Services PMI printed a healthy 56.1 for August, rising for the 2nd consecutive month, comfortably beating expectations and giving The Fed more ammo for a September hike. This rise was achieved despite the weakest rise in new work in 3 months. While Markit notes that this headline print suggest 'everything is awesome' it suggests the need for more stimulus just in case, as prices are falling. Following the dramatic spike in the July ISM Services to 10 year highs, it dropped back modestly, thanks to slide in New Orders, with an August print of 59.0 - still the highest since Nov 2005, again offering no excuse for The Fed to stay on hold.
"This is a dangerous time," warns Nobel laureate Bob Schiller as he warns of the false signal that typical P/E ratios are misleading and in fact his CAPE ratio (looking through the cycle) implies "fair value" for The Dow should trade around 11,000 and around 1300 for the S&P 500. "There is a risk of a substantial decline," he adds, warning that the recent rebound "maybe someone's good will effort to stabilize the market," and in fact the market's valuation is high now and people are over-exposed.
Draghi - we have a problem. They hoped, he came, they sold. US stocks and bonds knee-jerk rallied on the "expanding QE" promise from Draghi thi8s morning but all those gains have been erased now as USDJPY 'fun-durr-mentals' drag it lower. If not even the latest reduction in European economic forecasts can push stocks higher, we central banks may have a real problem on their hands.
Back in March, we mocked the ECB's inflation forecasts with a post titled "Mario Draghi Reveals Biggest. Hockeystick. Ever!", which highlighted the ECB's ridiculous expectation that inflation would soar from 0.0% in 2015 to 2016. We though no other hockeystick could possibly surpass this. We were wrong.
Stocks Surge As ECB Expands QE Monetization Limits, Boost Purchase Threshold From 25% to 33% Per IssueSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/03/2015 - 08:43
ABN Amro was right: moments ago Mario Draghi announced that, just as the Pavlovian Dogs were salivating, the ECB would not leave markets hanging, and while not boosting QE in size, announced he would increase the amount of monetizable assets, i.e., the ECB's share limit per CUSIP equivalent, from 25% to 33%. The result: an immediate surge in both stocks (ES jumping 21 points) and bonds (the 10Y dropping to 2.156%).
Initial jobless claims have risen for 5 of the last 6 weeks with the last week showing a 12k rise to 282k. This is the biggest weekly rise in 2 months and raises the claims print overall to 2-month highs. Perhaps most remarkable is that initial jobless claims are now back up to unchanged since the end of QE3.
DRAGHI SAYS ISSUE SHARE LIMIT FOR QE RAISED TO 33% FROM 25%
ECB CUTS EURO-AREA INFLATION FORECASTS FOR 2015-2017
Mario Draghi holds court (on his birthday, no less) in a closely watched post-meeting presser as markets hope collapsing inflation expectations, heightened volatility, EM chaos, and China turmoil will be enough to force the ECB's hand.
Moments ago Challenger reported August job cuts, which at 41,186 were a 60% drop from the 115,730 reported last month (the highest since September 2011), which however was driven by a one-time mass layoffs last month in military staffing. Putting August in its correct perspective, the number was 2.9% higher than the same month a year ago, when 40,010 planned job cuts were announced. So far in 2015 employers have announced 434,554 job cuts: that is up 31 percent from the 332,931 planned layoffs in the first eight months of 2014. What is worst, and what reveals the true picture of the economy, is that with monthly totals averaging 54,319, 2015 job cuts are on track to exceed 650,000 for the yeajesusr, which would be the highest year-end tally since 2009 (1,272,030).
As expected, there was no change in the ECB's three key interest rates, with the main refi, lending and deposit rates staying where they were at 0.05%, 0.30% and -0.20%, respectively.
Riksbank won’t be passive if ECB makes big changes in its policy, Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves says at press conference.
- U.S. Treasury's Lew says China will be held accountable on currency (Reuters) ... but not Japan
- Bank of Japan Not Convinced of Need for Further Easing (WSJ)
- Stocks Advance With Commodities on Signs of European Revival (BBG)
- IMF Says China Slowdown, Other Risks Threaten Global Outlook (WSJ)
- Xi Says China No Threat, Announces Military Cuts at Parade (BBG)
- China holds massive military parade, to cut troop levels by 300,000 (Reuters)
- Migrants leave Budapest for Austrian frontier; pressure builds for EU action (Reuters)