OMO vs USD
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2009 - 11:16
Call it a pure coincidence, but the second the OMO closed at 11am, someone(s) sold a boatload of dollars. Stocks looking so much prettier since.
OMO vs S&P500
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2009 - 10:38Due to popular demand, we present a chart overlaying the S&P500 and the Fed's Treasury OMO actions (not accounting for agency and MBS purchases).
Fed Buys $5.9 Billion Of Recently Auctioned 5 YearTreasuries
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2009 - 10:21As part of today's $7 Billion Treasury OMO by the Fed, $5.9 billion of recently auctioned off 5 Years were purchased... And not a moment too soon - the liquidity is muchly needed.
Raymond James Discusses "Growthyness" Of REITs
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2009 - 09:43RJ analyst Paul Puryear creates new words to describe his enthusiasm. Objectivity and OED butchering ensues, and even Mark Haynes is confused.
Janet Tavakoli "Talks Her Book" And Cashes Out
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2009 - 09:24The author of Structure Finance And Collateralized Debt Obligations, and one of the few who actually understood the CDO problem and predicted it, has gone all cash.
CIT Completes Debt Tender Offer
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2009 - 09:01CIT has averted bankruptcy by succeeding to get just above the requisite minimum of acceptances for its tender offer. The Offer expired at 12:00 midnight, New York City time, at the end of August 14, 2009. CIT is paying $875 for every $1,000 tendered as part of the offer.
July Capital One Charge-Offs And Delinquencies Worse Across The Board
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2009 - 08:30Capital One just released its charge off data: the improvement that some had seen in the June data has promptly been erased and metrics are trending negative again. The net annualized charge-off rate increased to 9.83% in July from 9/73% in June. The 30 days + delinquency rate also went up to 4.83% from 4.77%. However, the worst deterioration was in Auto Finance Metrics, the annualized charge off rate increasing by over a third percent to 4.26% from 3.89%, and the 30 Days + delinquency rate moved north of 9 to 9.22% from 8.89%.
Empire Manufaturing Index Rises As Margin Pressure Increases
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2009 - 07:59
The Empire Manufacturing Index screamed higher to 12.1, much higher than the estimate of 3, yet the simple reason for this was margin pressure increased. As the chart below demonstrates The Prices Paid - Prices Received delta increased yet again, this time hitting 26.60, indicating manufacturers are losing on margin, which will impact the bottom line. And the future does not look much better: Prices Paid is expected to increase to +31.91 and Received to pick up to +5.32, meaning the margin pressure is here to stay.
Daily Highlights: 8.17.09
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2009 - 07:31- Administration backs away from public health insurance plan.
- Asian stocks decline on lower than expected Japanese GDP.
- China sends envoy to Washington to lobby against tire tariffs.
- Housing, Factory slowdowns in US probably eased, hinting at a recovery.
- Japan's economy grew for the first time since early last year; Q2 GDP up 0.9%.
Frontrunning: August 17
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2009 - 07:27- Pension funds pare stocks, ignoring economic rebound (Bloomberg) - so who actually benefited from this rally?
- U.S. pay czar says he can "claw back" exec compensation (Reuters)
- Citigroup may shift Phibro's Andrew Hall pay to stock from cash (Bloomberg)
- France seeking bank on guaranteed bonuses for G-20 (Bloomberg)
- The Lehman bankruptcy fee awards: and the winner is (WSJ)
- Joliet remembers the 1930's (Joliet Pub Lib, h/t CreditTrader)
Paging Jerome Kerviel To The Fat Futures Finger Room
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2009 - 05:57
A flush in the SPUs is a victory for the bulls.
Guest Post: Shining A Light On Expert Networks
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/16/2009 - 20:24"Mr Cuomo, it's time to start asking some very hard questions about expert networks. With the SEC still reluctant to enforce anything against anyone, it has fallen on your office to provide justice to the small investors, to level the playing field. As a number of economic studies have shown, information assymetries can undermine stock markets and result in a critical loss of confidence and trust. Expert networks are a key mechanism to augment information assymetries, giving even more information to the hedge fund managers who already control so many of the cards on Wall Street."
Dragon-Kings, Black Swans And The Prediction Of Crises
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/16/2009 - 19:21Following up on the earlier piece about predicting financial bubbles is this paper, mostly for Taleb fans:
"The presence of a phase transition is crucial to learn how to diagnose in advance the symptoms associated with a coming dragon-king. Several examples of predictions using the derived log-periodic power law method are discussed, includingmaterial failure predictions and the forecasts of the end of financial bubbles."
PE Bidders Not Allowed For Guaranty Financial Ahead Of Monday Deadline
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/16/2009 - 17:37The Financial Times is reporting that even as the FDIC probably managed to avert disaster by pushing off Colonial on to BB&T's lap on Friday, its troubles keep escalating. Sheila Bair is trying hard to sell Texas' Guaranty Financial ahead of a Monday deadline, however it may have used up its jokers on Colonial, which was supposed to be the "easy sell."
