Credit Suisse - Market Now At Euphoric Levels
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 14:25
Credit Suisse's global risk appetite index is now at "Euphoria" levels, matching the highs from November 2007, and has retraced from "Panic" at the fastest rate since the October 1987 crash. Next official stage on this index: "Irrational Exuberance" although at least now it has gripped the entire market, not just tech stocks.
The Goldman Guns Are Out, Payroll Improvement Projected Next
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 13:58First the 85 Broads roll one of them out at CNBC, depositing the permabullish dinosaur Abby Cohen to preach how the bull market has just restarted compliments of the mega squeeze in AIG, FNM and CIT (in finance you are as valuable if you bat 0.000 as if you bat 1.000), and now, hot on the hells of Hatzius' upgrade to Q2 GDP from 1% to 3%, they roll out another macro bullish piece, saying July nonfarm payrolls will be up to -250,000 from -300,000 (the question of whether the 50,000 actually matters in any scheme of things, is irrelevant). Ironically, it was yesterday that Jan thought projected employment assumptions wouldn't budge. So much has changed in 24 hours.
Bleaker Fed Fund Outlook Now Than At Bottom Of Market
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 13:22
The poll for what the Fed Fund Rate will be on December 16 indicates that a progressively higher number of people see no chance of a rate increase (or vote in the 0.25% bracket) compared to a majority who in March saw a marginal increase to 0.5%. Inflation - good luck with that. The people have spoken, and deflation is here to stay.
Rep. Steny Hoyer (D) Called A Liar, Shouted Down For Presenting Misleading Economic Data
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 12:42The American people are becoming more educated... and more angry...
REIT Simon Property Group To Raise Half A "Trillion" In New Notes
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 12:29Either:
i) the company is now directly competing with Ben Bernanke in who can raise $1 trillion in toxic debt first
ii) Simon's PR department just tipped their hand on what their ultimate Debt/FFO target is
iii) Reuters is sending a subliminal message from the CMSA that the whole securitization thing is no longer an issue, and there is pent up demand for well over a trillion in 4th lien debt "secured" by Eskimo igloos and Gobi desert-based condo-hotels
Schizophrenic NASDAQ Voluntarily Eliminates Its Own Flash Orders
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 12:08The Nasdaq, which recently was quite vocal in its condemntation of Flash orders, yet forgot it offers Flash orders itself, has taken matters into its own noble hands (and luckily out of those of the SEC's chairwoman). From a just issued press release:
TICK Downtrend Continues
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 11:59
Are the redbull drinking, Acutane gulping, reversion chasing momos losing steam?
Guest Post: On The Sodini Diaries, And The Anxiety Of The Employed
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 11:41"What I’m about to say brings me no joy or satisfaction, and I fervently hope I am completely wrong, but I expect a lot more shootings like the Sodini killings to happen over the next couple of years. Sodini had other, rather tragic circumstances that drove him to murder, but one cannot deny that his anxiety over his continued employment was a big part of what drove him to shoot innocent people. I am certainly not excusing him—not in any way, far from it. But it behooves us to read the Sodini diaries and get a clear sense of the man, so that we might begin to understand the country we have created."
The SRS Class Action Lawsuits Start
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 10:53Labaton Sucharow LLP Files Class Action Lawsuit Against Proshares’ Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares Fund
Guest Post: The Recovery, The Rally And Our Portfolios
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 10:27"So on we go, riding the wave of yet another recovery fueled by stimulus. They work great,
until they don’t; sadly, the MSCI World Equity index trails money market fund returns since
1989, when Fed policy began in earnest to solve investment bubbles gone wrong by setting the
real cost of money to zero. Today, a sober view argues for a portfolio with moderate exposure to global markets, but with a close eye on the fissures which did not exist at the inception of prior bull markets (e.g., 1947, 1962, 1982, 1991). Giga-stimulus carries the day for now, but the morning after may come sooner this time around…"
Not So Strange Attractors
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 10:13
Reversion algorithms coming to you today (as well as yesterday, tomorrow... and the day after), compliments of big, fat non-linear dynamics textbooks and their 19 year old readers.
Agency Vigilantes In Rampage Mode
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 10:08
While the short squeeze manipulators and stock borrow pullers try to kill any and every last bear out there, the much bigger problem of mortgage yields is starting to get out of control again: the last two days have seen the widest spreads on 30 Year Current Coupon FNMA in almost two months.
Goldman's Stealthy GDP Boost
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 09:54An event that did not catch much media attention yesterday was Goldman economist Jan Hatzius' under the radar boost to Q3 annualized GDP expectations from 1% to 3%. As regular readers know, it is prudent to always take Goldman advice and ideas with a dash of Cayenne pepper (Hatzius after all was the same gentleman who in January was suggesting a Taylor-implied -6% Fed Fund rates). However, reading the Goldman report demonstrates that this is not the bullish portent that some have made it seem to be.
Wells Fargo Team News: Compensation Increases For The Brass, TARP Repayment Imminent
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 09:04Surely the increase in "compensation close to the average pay for similar executive roles at peer group companies" is very much deserved, and Zero Hedge approves the very prudent decision by WFC's board of directors. None of this would be made possible without the generosity of taxpayers and Bernanke's plan to bog America in trillions of unsustainable debt for generations to come (aka the steep yield curve). Look for WFC's TARP repayment announcement coming to an 8-K near you any day now.
Judge Rakoff Pours Cold Water On BofA-SEC's Little Complicit Scheme,
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2009 - 08:36"Despite the public importance of this case, the proposed Consent Judgment would leave uncertain the truth of the very serious allegations made in the Complaint. Further, the proposed Consent Judgment in no way specifies the basis for the $33 million figure or whether any of this money is derived directly or indirectly from the $20 billion in public funds previously advanced to Bank of America as part of its 'bail out.'"
