Tyler Durden's picture

Bank Failure Friday Chart Approaching Exponential Curve

Sheila Bair's favorite math equation these days: 

e^x = \lim_{n \rightarrow \infty} \left(1 + \frac{x}{n}\right)^{n}.

where n = bank failures and x = tax rate


Tyler Durden's picture

GX Clarke Defines "Indirect Bidder"

From GX Clarke

What exactly is an indirect bidder?

This question used to be fairly easy to answer. An indirect bidder was one that did not trade with Primary dealers and dealt directly with the Fed at auctions. That's the kind of quirky funny twist on language that would draw the ire of a George Carlin, "So an IN-direct bidder Bids
Directly. Hmmmm."


Tyler Durden's picture

GE Capital Serving Kool Aid All Morning

GE Capital, aka the next CIT, is practicing its recently acquired hypnosis skillset (perfected via daily lessons from CNBC anchors) which has culminated with a 63 page presentation replete with far too much empty verbiage and green shootery.

The take home message:

  • H1 Net Income has plunged to $1.7 billion on $557 billion in total assets, and only thanks to firing pretty much everybody: $1.9 billion in SG&A savings
  • This is down $24 billion from Q4 as GECC is "continuing to rapidly reduce balance sheet"
  • Loss reserves are skyrocketing: currently at $6.6 billion, up one billion from Q1
  • 2009 TY original outlook: $5 billion; Fed base case: $2.0-$2.5 billion, Fed adverse case: $0
  • How many more people can GECC fire as its balance sheet implodes?
  • Oh yeah, and if CRE really blows up, CIT, here we come

Tyler Durden's picture

Daily Highlights: 7.28.09

  • Asian stock markets move mostly in a tight range after their string of recent rallies.
  • CFTC report to blame speculators responsible for driving oil-price swings.
  • Coal producers cope with sluggish demand
  • Crude Oil trades near a three-week high after gains in equities markets
  • SEC firms up plan to limit short sales of stocks.
  • AIG unit keeps $2.4B from asset sales as taxpayers wait for payment

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: July 28

  • Must read: Arizona set to implement recourse mortgages - this could be the beginning of the end (Housing Doom, h/t Credit Trader)
  • Congratulations Ben - you have succeeded; dollar reaches 2009 low (Bloomberg) (yet less than $90 billion in foreign liquidity swaps left to pull... then what?)
  • And here's to a healthy Euro: Lithuanian economy shrank 22.4% in Q2 (Bloomberg)
  • High frequency traders say speed works to everyone's advantage (Bloomberg)
  • Judge Drain does not lead to the sewer, stands up to pressure and follows arcane, little-appreciated thing known as the law: leaves Platinum Equity in the cold on Delphi (AP)

Travis's picture

Spin Me a New Job- Call it What You Want, Stimulus Jobs May Be Just That- Spin.

Surprised? While the out-of-work scramble to find jobs, State government agencies and politicians are spinning on how many jobs are created under the stimulus plans.


Tyler Durden's picture

Financial "Analysts" Good For One Thing - Hitting On Fox News TV Anchors

Fundamentals got you down? Worried that 19 year old kid with the trigger reflex, trading breakout chart formations and a stratospheric P&L will replace you any day now (especially if you are an expert on "finding good jobs in tough times")? Better use up all those TV-spots while you got them to hit on pretty, barely legal University of South Carolina anchors.

(At 2:25 am in the morning, a little levity is allowed: there is at least 7 hours before the short squeeze rips again.)


Tyler Durden's picture

The Florida CRE Implosion Visualized

Has to be seen to be believed


Tyler Durden's picture

CMBS Delinquency YoY Change: 585%

Yes, that's 585%. No comment needed


Tyler Durden's picture

Daily Credit Summary: July 27 - Dispersion Rising

Spreads were tighter in the US as all the indices improved (with HY and IG back to early SEP08 levels on an adjusted index basis). Indices typically underperformed single-names (as despite the late day surge to new tights in IG, we heard more single-name protection buying hedged via the index) with skews mostly narrower as IG underperformed but narrowed the skew, HVOL outperformed but widened the skew, ExHVOL intrinsics beat and narrowed the skew, XO underperformed but compressed the skew, and HY outperformed but narrowed the skew.


Tyler Durden's picture

Ron Insana On HFT

Hey Ron, didn't realize your new position as a contributing editor on CNBC came with the contributing title of "Portfolio Manager." Didn't Stevie put a one year kibbosh on that? But I digress... And in all honesty I am surprised that you seem to have the correct spin on things (as per letter below from Jim Cramer's failed media experiment TheStreet).


Tyler Durden's picture

Raymond James On Implications Of Flash Elimination - NYSE Biggest Winner...

...Although once the debate moves away from Flash to its natural progression into dark pools and ultimately HFT, watch out below: "Any move to restrict high frequency trading could have a significant impact on exchanges’ transaction fees as well as revenue earned from co-location; there is also the chance that efforts to restrict HFT in the equities world could bleed over into other asset classes as well, including futures. We view potential regulatory changes as a net negative for exchanges, but it is far too early to assess the impact of potential regulation on these two issues."

The clock is now ticking on the rigger Echange - Broker/Dealer oligopoly


Tyler Durden's picture

1 To 3 Years Of Securities Recalls Aka Forced Squeeze To Go

After numerous posts on this blog discussing speculation of assorted forced buy ins, it seems that this phenomenon is quite factual and quite pervasive among the asset management community. As Zero Hedge has noted previously, forced buy-ins are a critical issue as it leaves shorts at the mercy of their securities lenders and repo desks (most of which are TARP recipients and thus beneficiaries of higher stock prices) which generically have the option of recalling lent out shares at a moment's notice, and thus creating artificial purchasing pressure: i.e. a forced short squeeze. According to Securities Industry News, in a recent survey by Callan Associates, over half of the respondents said they are undergoing a "controlled unwind" with their securities lending desks (aka State Street, BoNY, and Northern Trust).


Tyler Durden's picture

NYSE Claims It Does Not Engage In Flash Trading

From an interview earlier with NYSE's Larry Leibowitz, who is surprisingly vocal against Flash trading. Larry - since the NYSE does not engage in Flash trading, can you please indicate whether or not the SLP program provides advance notice to Goldman Sachs ala Direct Edge's ELP program. Regardless, the escalation in the ECN wars is starting and should be a very interesting one to follow, especially now with a toothless and clueless Mary Schapiro stuck in the middle.


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