Tyler Durden's picture

Alibaba’s SEC Probe: What’s Missing From This Disclosure?

On 24-May-2016, Alibaba Group disclosed what appears to be an informal SEC investigation. This is the first time this matter has been disclosed. Details are scant, leaving the investor unable to adequately assess the risk it poses. Using the template of who/what/where/when/why, we will examine what is missing. Our conclusion is you are left with a risk that management views as material but you cannot analyze. We generally recommend avoiding such scenarios.


Tyler Durden's picture

This Week's Main News From The Oil Sector

For those who need a quick and easy recap of all the main events that took place in the oil and gas services sector, here it is courtesy of Credit Suisse's James Wicklung who present the various "things we've learned this week."


Tyler Durden's picture

Stocks, Bonds Slide As Hawkish Yellen Sends July Rate-Hike Odds To Record Highs

Following Yellen's uncharacteristicaly hawkish tone, the odds of a July rate-hike have shot higher - now higher than June or September have ever been - to record highs. This has sent short-term bond yields higher, the yield curve dramatically flatter, stocks lower, and gold down...


Tyler Durden's picture

Here's Why All Pension Funds Are Doomed, Doomed, Doomed

It's looking increasingly likely that third time's the charm: this set of bubbles is the last one central banks can blow. And when markets free-fall and don't reflate into new bubbles, pension funds will expire, as they were fated to do the day central banks chose zero interest rates forever as their cure for a broken economic model.


Tyler Durden's picture

Death By A Theta Cuts

Implied volatility should remain structurally elevated into and through an eventual recession (and likely bear market) before subsiding once the next sustained recovery has begun. That is precisely why we have struggled with the idea that the high-volatility regime intact since last August may truncate at less than a year. If our reasoning is correct and volatility remains structurally elevated, it follows that the recent three-month cyclical trough, as the longest such period on record, is statistically unlikely to last much longer.


Tyler Durden's picture

Why Stocks Keep Rising Despite Another Rate Hike On The Horizon: One Explanation

"It would seem to us that the equity outcome in the weighted average view is a lot less positive. There are few S&P 2500 optimists even at 2.5% growth but plenty of S&P 1600 or less pessimists on the negative scenario. Bottom line – one more and pretty much done is unlikely to be as risk positive as recent asset market prices action suggests."


Tyler Durden's picture

Crude Traders Shrug As Oil Rig Count Resumes Decline

Following last week's unchanged oil rig count - breaking a 21-week streak of declines - as the rig count inflected perfectly with lagged oil prices. However, despite a rise in lagged oil prices, the oil rig count declined 2 to 316 this week - new lows since Oct 2009. Total rig count dropped to 404 - a new record low. Crude traders appear to have left for the day as there was no visible reaction to this data.


Tyler Durden's picture

"I'm Going To Stick With This Right To The End" - French President Hollande Threatens Union Protesters

"We can't accept that there are unions that dictate the law. This is not a moment to endanger the French recovery. As head of state, I want us to go right to the end."


Tyler Durden's picture

G-7 Refuses To Warn Of "Global Economic Crisis" Over Fear "Sentiment Can Become Self-Fulfilling"

In order to press his individual agenda of preserving optionality to intervene in the FX market and push the Yen lower (using increasingly more desperate measures), Japan's Prime Minister had just one task in the latest G-7 meeting: to have the Group of Seven leaders warn of the risk of a global economic crisis in the final communique issued as the summit wrapped earlier today in Japan. He failed. The reason why: "the G-7 is obviously aware of the ‘announcement effect’ the official communique has. In such a situation, warning of negative risks and sentiment can become self-fulfilling.""


Tyler Durden's picture

"The Great White Hope"

“Angry white male” is now an acceptable slur in culture and politics. So it is that people of that derided ethnicity, race, and gender see in Donald Trump someone who unapologetically berates and mocks the elites who have dispossessed them, and who despise them. Is it any surprise that militant anti-government groups attract white males? Is it so surprising that the Donald today, like Jess Willard a century ago, is seen by millions as “The Great White Hope”?


RANSquawk Video's picture

RANsquawk weekly wrap 27th May 2016


Tyler Durden's picture

Losing Ground In Flyover America, Part 2

There has never been a more destructive central banking policy than the Fed’s current maniacal quest to stimulate more inflation and more debt. That’s what is killing real wages and economic vitality in flyover America - even as it showers prodigious windfalls of unearned wealth on Wall Street and the bicoastal elites who draft on the nation’s vastly inflated finances. Indeed, Fed policy has had a double whammy effect on the flyover zone economy. It drove inflation up when down was needed; and its strip-mined capital from American business when increased capital investment was of the essence.


Tyler Durden's picture

UMich Consumer Confidence Fades From Early May Exuberance, Inflation Expectations Slump To Record Lows

Having spiked magnificently (and surprisingly) to 11-month highs (from 7-month lows) with May's preliminary print at 95.8 (driven by a massive spike in 'hope'), today's final print of 94.7 (still an 11-month high) dropped from preliminary and missed forecasts. Expectations faded notably from 87.5 prelim to 84.9 final - still an 11-month high for 'hope'. However, despite the hype in the hope, short- and long-term inflation expectations tumbled with 5-10Y outlook now at record lows.


Tyler Durden's picture

Austria Launches Probe Into Alleged Presidential Election Postal Vote Fraud

Five Austrian voting districts are being investigated in Austria over postal vote irregularities in the close-run presidential election, the interior minister has announced. Allegations of fraud arose from the far-right Freedom party of defeated candidate Norbert Hofer, after the Green candidate Alexander Van der Bellen just scrapped ahead with 31,000 votes when the postal ballot was counted.


Tyler Durden's picture

Is The Market Priced For A Summer Rate-Hike?

Last November, capital markets were discounting a rate hike five months later, based on Fed Funds futures. Same story today. Last November, the S&P 500 was trading near 2100. Same story today. Last November, VIX levels were around 14. Same story today. Last November, instead of waiting five months, the Fed hiked rates one month later; the S&P dropped by 10% over the next eight weeks... And as BofAML's Savita Subramanian warns, hiking during a profits recession usually hasn't ended well.


Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!