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Question Everything?

We've lost "hope," so this must be the "change"?


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And So It Begins?

Over the last few years we have made it abundantly clear that sooner or later it would be shown that the whole Silicon Valley meme of “It’s different this time” (i.e., in regards to unicorns, social everything, eye balls for ads etc., etc.) was nothing more than the equivalent of a teenager’s response of “because” when arguing why valuations of many of "The Valley’s" newest, or trans-formative platforms were clearly not only out-of-whack with reality, but bordered on insanity.


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Iran's Supreme Leader Accuses Obama Of Lifting Sanctions Only "On Paper"

Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which supposed had thawed as part of Obama's landmark 2015 nuclear deal which also allowed Iran to resume exporting its oil, are once again on the fence following a statement by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which accused the United States of scaring businesses away from Tehran and undermining a deal to lift international sanctions. 


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FOMC Statement Key Take Aways: "Fed Leaves Door Open For June Rate Hike"

  1. The April 27 statement downgraded economic activity, said it "slowed", but labor market conditions "improved further" and inflation still expected to rise toward 2% over the medium term.
  2. Removed language that "global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks".
  3. Kansas City Fed's Esther George dissented in favor of a rate hike.

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Market Reacts To Fed Confusion With Chaotic Stop Hunt: Bonds Beating Stocks, Banks Pump'n'Dump

Update: Risk on is fading fast with bonds & bullion topping stocks

The kneejerk - USD up, stocks down, bonds down - reaction has faded and with The Fed statement pitching its dovish tent back in domestic concerns while keeping a hawkish eye on global developments. The Long bond is back in the green but it appears machines are busier running oil stops higher and dumping gold. Rate hike odds rose but very modestly from 21% pre- to 23.5% post-FOMC.


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Fed Removes "Global Risk" Alert But Keeps Monitoring "Global Economic And Financial Developments" - Full Statement Redline

Since Yellow-Yellen's March dovefest, stocks have rallied, China has stabilized, and while economic data has been weak in general - jobs and inflation (which is what The Fed claims to care about) have been positive. So how does The Fed make June a live meeting, tilt hawkish, and still protect the narrative of recovery and the sanctity of their equity market (which is all that really matters)...

  • *FED REMOVES REFERENCE TO GLOBAL EVENTS POSING RISKS TO OUTLOOK
  • *FED SAYS LABOR MARKET IMPROVED EVEN AMID SIGNS OF SLOWER GROWTH
  • *FED REPEATS ECONOMIC SITUATION WARRANTS ONLY GRADUAL RATE HIKES

So "risks" are "balanced" and The Fed is "data depedent" again - rate-hikes are back on the table, however here is a key change: instead of monitoring "inflation developments" the Fed is now "monitoring inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments" which is effectively the same as the struck language on "global economic and financial developments."


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FOMC Preview: The Fed Is "Scared To Death" & "The Knock-On Effects Could Be Spectacular"

Federal Reserve officials are virtually certain to hold interest rates steady when their meeting ends today but they could try to send a message to markets and outside observers about what likely comes next. With no press conference scheduled after this week’s meeting and no new economic forecasts to be released, all the attention will be focused on their words and the market is more aware than ever that the Fed doesn’t act in a vacuum. As Bloomberg's Richard Breslow notes, The Fed is hopeful (that their always-wrong forecasts come true this time) but they're also scared to death on the consequences.


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Business "Subsidies" Plummet 70% As Government Support Evaporates

In order to attract and retain small and big business alike, it's long been a tactic by states and local governments to offer tax breaks. However, as times have got tough - and rules have changed - in Obama's "recovery", government subsidies to their cronies - of at least $50 million - have plummeted by 70% Bloomberg reports.


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Former House Speaker And "Serial Child Molester" Dennis Hastert Sentenced To 15 Months In Prison

Moments ago, former House Speaker Dennis Hastert was sentenced to 15 months in prison in his hush-money case by a judge who called him a "serial child molester" and ordered him to enroll in a sex-offender treatment program. As NBC reports, Hastert, 74, was accused of abusing four boys between the ages of 14 and 17 when he was a coach at Yorkville High School decades ago. While he was not charged with any sexual crimes because of the statute of limitations, but he pleaded guilty to making illegal cash withdrawals to pay off one of his accusers.


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Gold More Productive Than Cash?!

Is gold, often scoffed at as being an unproductive asset, more productive than cash? If so, what does it mean for asset allocation?


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Oil Algos Panic-Buy "Supply-Glut-Reported" Dip

Forget DOE data, it's time to buy ahead of The Fed!!


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Watch Live: Donald Trump's Teleprompted Foreign Policy Speech

In what will be a closely watched and even more scrutinized speech, today at noon Donald J. Trump will hold a speech on foreign policy at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, DC.  In the speech Trump is poised to demonstrate just how "presidential" he can be, because as Reuters notes , "he is expected to set aside his bad-boy antics and, with the help of a teleprompter to keep him on message, outline what his foreign policies would be if he is elected U.S. president."


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The "World's Biggest Short Squeeze" Has Spread From ETFs To Stocks

Courtesy of the latest report by JPM's Prime Brokerage, we now know two reasons why there was such a large move in April. Hedge funds accelerated the pace of ETF covering, only this time single stock names have also joined the party. In other words, ETF covering is removing hedges, and single stock covering is getting HF's into a net long position.


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"Hold Onto Your Hats": A Chinese Commodity Is Now The Most Traded In The World, Surpassing Oil

Trading volumes in Chinese exchanges spiked exponentially, with SHFE rebar and DCE iron ore futures becoming the No.1 and No.3 most-traded contracts in the world, surpassing volumes of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts, which have been the most widely-traded and liquid contracts for three decades.


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Where It All Went Wrong

The recovery was always hollow or shallow, for a short time in 2014 it just came in a more appealing package; so appealing, the mainstream never looked beyond that cover. With 2015 a wreck and 2016 looking at best more of the same, they just keep right on reciting all the past cliches because to admit the actual circumstances is just too traumatic


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