• Tim Knight from...
    12/21/2014 - 09:37
    The five remaining equity bears on Earth are all saying the same thing: "We'll get 'em in 2015." To which I ask: why? What's going to change?

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Artist's Impression Of Obama's Iran Nuclear Policy

With all eyes firmly distracted in Cuba (or Sony or Russia or Ukraine), we thought a brief reminder worthwhile...



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Who Will Be Tomorrow's Superpower?

Around the world, unsustainable policies from the 20th century are beginning to fail in earnest. What will the future geopolitical landscape look like in their aftermath?



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The USA Is World #1... In Young Adult Income Inequality

Think young adults in Mexico, Thailand, Philippines, and Russia have it tough? Think again. 20-24 year-olds in the USA have an average gross income over 40% below the national average. That is the worst disparity in the world... USA USA USA!!



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Further Proof That Abenomics Is A Total Disaster: Japan Car Lobby Admits "Sense Of Panic"

"Abenomics is not having clear traction across the country," warned the head of Japan's auto lobby on Thursday as unexpectedly weak domestic sales revealed - yet again - what an utter disaster government policy is. "We feel a sense of crisis about the fact that cars are actually not selling," he exclaimed, saying that, as Reuters reports April sales tax hike was only partly to blame for the domestic sales weakness, citing the government's failure to boost consumption. But, but, but Japanese stocks are up 1000 points in the last 2 days so how can this be?



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Russia Has Begun Selling Its Gold, According To SocGen

"It appears possible that the Central Bank of Russia has started to sell off some of its gold reserves in December, with some sources reporting that official gold reserves dropped by $4.3 billion in the first week of the month."



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The Annotated History of US Dollar Debauchery

With everyone and their pet rabbit convinced the US Dollar strength continues, we thought some longer-term context on the 'strength' of the dollar was useful...



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Comstock Suspends Drilling In Eagle Ford Due To Plunging Oil Prices

Shale 0 - Saudi Arabia 1



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3 Things Worth Thinking About

Shifting consumption from gasoline sales to retail sales does not create economic growth. It is just a "shift" in where the same dollars are spent. However, there has been much "hoopla" over the recent retail sales report for November that saw retail sales jump for the month by 0.7%. While on the surface this appears to be a strong retail sales report, a quick look below the surface quickly destroys that claim.



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Sorry Folks, The North Koreans Hacked The "Global Recovery"

We are far too speechless to even comment on the latest Goldman "leading indicator" swirlogram, which we can only assume was made public after another unprecedented "North Korean hack" at US "recovery" propaganda central, so here is Goldman's own take:



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World Awaits Russian Response As Obama Makes "Lethal Aid" To Ukraine Legal

As we explained previously, quietly hidden within the humanitarian-sounding "The Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014", under the premise of enabling further sanctions on Russia, is the provision of "lethal aid" to Ukraine. Today, President Obama signed it into law...

*OBAMA SIGNED RUSSIAN SANCTIONS BILL TODAY, but SAYS HE DOESN'T PLAN TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS UNDER NEW LAW

Because he knows full well that is not the important part. The "lethal-aid" aspect is a direct provocation to Russia.. and he knows exactly how Putin will respond.



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Is The Oil Implosion Supply Or Demand Driven? Here Is The Very Simple Answer, Thanks To Saudi Arabia

There has been much debate whether the crude price implosion has been due to excess supply or not enough demand. Here, courtesy of the oil minister at the world's largest crude supplier, is the answer:

  • NAIMI SAYS DEMAND FOR OIL SLOWED MORE THAN EXPECTED: SPA
  • NAIMI SAYS GLOBAL ECONOMY SLOWDOWN LARGELY BEHIND MKT PROBLEM

Which, of course, to anyone with even the most rudiemntary logic and charting skills, should not come as any surprise.



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Deciphering Yellen's Rub-Goldbergian Message

Through the overly-complex verbiage riddled with a copious number of contingencies, a simple message was actually able to surface.  The net result is modestly hawkish and one consistent with our "Sooner but Slower" rate cycle perspective. Markets are being driven more by fear of missing the upside, and fear of under-performing peers and benchmarks, than by any other factor.  This Pavlovian response has worked well in recent years and encouraged by the Fed.  However, this pattern is in the 9th inning.  Moreover, such herd-like behavior will run into great difficult due to dreadful market liquidity that is the result of regulatory over-reach; indications that were evident in markets over the past few weeks.



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"Not" Stabilized - Crude Crashes 7% Intraday: WTI $54 Handle, Brent Below $60

Crude is over 7% off its intraday highs.. But "Ignore it" - Yellen said it's great news (and transitory)... The last time Crude was here, the S&P 500 was 65 points lower... [WTI closed at its lows $54.05 in Jan '15 futures]



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How The Fed Masterfully Punk'd Algos Into A Stock Buying Frenzy

"As humans struggled to understand what nuance, if any, existed between the two catch phrases, the automated computer programs that do so much of the trading these days immediately reacted and so stocks and Treasuries shot higher in tandem. Did the machines start a buying binge after a simple, successful search for “considerable time?” It’s possible, according to Paul Tetlock, an associate professor at Columbia Business School, who has researched how stocks react to news stories."



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