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The Whistleblower's Guide To Secretly Tipping Off The Press In A "Turnkey Totalitarian" State

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2013 - 21:07

When over four years ago we put together our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide", many thought we were being paranoid. We weren't, as last week's revelations by Edward Snowden demonstrated to the entire world. And yet, besides those from the intelligence community, few realized just how deep the reach of the Turnkey Totalitarian Tyranny ("TTT" or the Orwellian Banana Republic) truly goes. So as the Snowden enthusiasm spreads and more and more insiders with intimate knowledge of the broken system step up to expose the unconstitutional actions and illegal deeds that occur each and every day in the dark corner of US society well on its route to inevitable dissolution (ref USSR and WB Yeats), the question arises: how to do it - How to leak information to the press and other distribution agents without tipping off the very espionage agency at the nexus of it all? Luckily while information may be intercepted at every electronic turn, it still is largely free (at least until the advent of the Internet kill switch). So for all you wannabe Snowdens out there, here from Wired's Nicholas Weaver, is the perfectly timed "The Whistleblower’s Guide to the Orwellian Galaxy: How to Leak to the Press", which should answer all the 30,000 foot-level questions...

Comments: 149
Reads: 16,609

David Stockman's Non-Recovery Part 1: Post-2009 Faux Prosperity

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2013 - 20:12

Few others are better equipped to comprehend both the insider's and outsider's perspective on what the government, the Fed, and the banks are doing in this so-called 'recovery' we are experiencing than David Stockman. Nowhere does he detail this better than Chapter 31 of his new book 'The Great Deformation'. In this first part (of a four-part series), he explains just what happened after the US economy liquidated excess inventory and labor and hit its natural bottom in June 2009. Embarking upon a halting but wholly unnatural "recovery," doing nothing but igniting yet another round of rampant speculation in the risk asset classes. The precarious foundation of the Bernanke Bubble is starkly evident in the internal composition of the jobs numbers.

Comments: 61
Reads: 16,077

US Treasury Denies It Is Trying To Torpedo Bitcoin

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2013 - 19:37

In remarks given late last week to the curiously named United States Institute for Peace, the head of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) vociferously denied any attempts at regulating digital currency... specifically Bitcoin. But that doesn’t mean they can’t spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Bitcoin, being completely decentralized, is nearly impossible to regulate. And the government at least seems to understand this point. Which is why the director so emphatically denies attempting to regulate the digital currency. But in this short 4-page speech, the Director twice made a connection between Bitcoin and (you guessed it) terrorism. Twice more connected Bitcoin to those who would exploit children. And four times linked digital currency to ‘criminals’ in general. It’s certainly enough to scare most people away.

Comments: 155
Reads: 9,823

Goldman's End Of Day Recap, Or Crossing Into The Twilight Rabbit Hole Zone

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2013 - 19:02

"The power of the press (and the nouveau press)! Following a very solid open, stocks maintain their early gains until FT Harding hits the tape with an article suggesting a signal from Bernanke this Wednesday that the taper was drawing near – in contrast to the more dovish Hilsenrath last week. Stocks drop nearly a percent. Then via Twitter Harding casts doubt on his own predictions and more than half of those losses are reversed. The price action just reinforces how important the FOMC Wednesday will be."

Comments: 29
Reads: 9,548

JPMorgan: "Fed Stimulus Inflated Prices Of Financial Assets.... Removal Could Create Tail Event"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2013 - 18:23

"Recent bouts of positive correlation between equities, bonds and commodities suggest that the Fed’s stimulus inflated prices of financial assets, and removal of the stimulus could create a tail event in which prices of most of assets could go down. To reduce this risk, investors could diversify ‘safe haven’ assets away from treasuries and into other assets that are at lower risk in case of tapering. For instance, investors could increase allocations to equity index put options.... we think that the quick increase of net margin debt, and high ratio of margin debt to S&P 500 do point to an increased probability of a market correction and volatility increase in the second half of the year." - JPMorgan

Comments: 77
Reads: 18,847

For First Time Majority Finds President Untrustworthy: Obama Approval Plunges Among Young Americans

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2013 - 17:49

Whatever the deteriorating economy could not achieve (courtesy of Ben Bernanke's relentless bubble blowing and pumping of the S&P 500-driven "wealth effect" distraction) for the past four years, one NSA whistleblower succeeded in a few short days, when earlier today, CNN - hardly a media known for its criticism of the administration - released a new poll according to which not only did Obama's approval rating drop by 8% in the past month, "one of the sharpest, fastest plunges in his presidency" to 45% from 53% (the first time the majority had a negative opinion of the president), not only did the majority find Obama to not be honest and trustworthy for the first time ever in his presidency, but Obama's support with one of his core constituencies - young Americans under 30 - imploded, plunging by 17 points. CNN adds: "That's particularly discouraging heading into 2014 because Democrats have felt they have a lock on the youth vote after the 2012 elections. "The drop in Obama's support is fueled by a dramatic 17-point decline over the past month among people under 30, who, along with black Americans, had been the most loyal part of the Obama coalition," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said."

Comments: 267
Reads: 16,968

The Taliban Open Political Office In Qatar

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2013 - 17:25

In an apparent effort to "facilitate peace talks," Al Jazeera reports that the Taliban - the armed Islamic fundamentalist group - will open a political office Doha, Qatar tomorrow.

*AFGHANISTAN'S TALIBAN TO OPEN OFFICE IN QATAR TOMORROW: JAZEERA
*JAZEERA CITES UNIDENTIFIED SOURCES ON TALIBAN POLITICAL OFFICE

Until earlier this year, Afghan President Karzai was strongly opposed to the Taliban having a meeting venue outside Afghanistan, but the US has pushed for the Taliban to be present at the negotiating table as Washington prepares to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan in the next two years. This opening comes on the heels of accusations (here and as we discussed here) that Qatar (and Saudi Arabia) is reviving al-Qaeda in Iraq and now Syria.

Comments: 43
Reads: 4,503

When The "Worked So Far" Meme No Longer Works

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2013 - 16:53

We have discussed the idea of a VaR shock (driven by Abe/Kuroda's loss of control) a number of times recently but as Saxo's Steen Jakobsen fears, reality is about to hit as the marginal cost of capital normalizes. The world, so far, has been kept in artificial equilibrium by the way quantitative easing (QE) and fiscal policies bring support and endless liquidity to the 20 percent of the economy that mostly comprises large and already profitable companies and banks with good credit and good political access. The premise for supporting these companies is based on the non-existent wealth effect which unfairly culminates in supporting the haves to the detriment of the have-nots. However, as Jakobsen notes below, things are rapidly changing; the recent increase in yields has happened despite no real improvement in the underlying data. The the next few days are potential major game changers – the bloated VaRs will make people hedge and over hedge, and the normalization process of rising risk premiums and higher real rates (higher yield plus lower inflation) will lead to more selling off of those trades that have "worked so far"... and increase volatility in their own right.

Comments: 31
Reads: 9,350

Volatility Gets A Harding On Taper Chatter

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2013 - 16:19

Equity markets were very much in a land of their own relative to broad risk asset classes all day until the FT's Harding "mo' Taper" memo hit and slammed reality back into the herding masses. Still convinced that the Fed will 'only' taper if the data confirms it, we suspect the broad market is missing the signals from broken markets and frothy levels that mean the Fed will use the modest improvements as a crutch upon which to jawbone tapering into our minds. Today's price action was - in the words of the great Bob Pisani, "just silly." A ramp out of the gate following Japan's lead which followed a Hilsenrath-inspired ramp-job from Friday combined with a beat for NAHB (and Empire Fed) sent all the high-beta into overdrive (builders +2.2%) - but nothing else was really moving (FX was relatively flat, bonds went sideways, commodities wriggled in a small range). The Harding hit and we gave back all the post-Hilsenrath gains, 330-ramped to VWAP and held it magically into the close (though the USD ended at its lows of the day, bond yields at their highs, and credit markets at their lows).

Comments: 29
Reads: 7,807

Bonds Versus Stocks - Just Ask Japan

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2013 - 16:03

The impact of substantially higher interest rates are not good for the economy or the financial markets going forward. In the short term consumers, and the financial markets, can withstand small incremental shifts higher in interest rates. There is clear evidence historically to suggest the same. However, sustained higher, and rising, interest rates are another matter entirely. Before we get too excited, it is important to keep in perspective the recent "surge" in interest rates that has gotten the market's attention as of late. In reality, this is nothing more than a bounce in a very sustained downtrend. While there is not a tremendous amount of downside left for interest rates to go currently - it also doesn't mean that they are going to substantially rise anytime soon. Weak economic growth, an aging demographic, rising governmental debt burdens and continued deflationary pressures can keep interest rates suppressed for a very long time. Just ask Japan.

Comments: 19
Reads: 8,406

Hilsy Come; FT Go!

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2013 - 15:35

This is what our 'markets' have become...

Comments: 50
Reads: 15,868

What The Fed Is Looking At

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2013 - 15:10

A sense among investors that the global economy is unraveling has injected tremendous volatility into the markets. As Bloomberg's Rich Yamarone notes, if the global equity market decline is not a “Sell in May” event, but the beginning of a great unwinding, then the economy, skating on thin ice, may be even more susceptible to recession. However, most of the US equity disconnect from the reality of weak data (and other markets) can be laid at the feet of the Fed's ever-generous monetary policy. However, given all of this 'weakness' - or missing of Fed benchmarks that we discuss below - that the Fed is well aware of, we ask again, why would so many members have been out discussing 'Taper' if it were not due to their concerns of broken markets and bubble conditions.

Comments: 40
Reads: 12,782

Guest Post: Gold Is Being Supplied By Western Governments

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2013 - 14:49

There has been considerable throughput of gold in western capital markets, with substantial buying from all round the world following the April price crash. The supply can only have come from two sources: the general public, or one or more governments. It really is that simple. Two months later the gold price has only partially recovered, so physical supplies have continued to be made available. Physical demand cannot have been entirely satisfied by ETF liquidations, confirming governments are involved. This article looks at the dynamics of the gold market around this event and the implications.

Comments: 129
Reads: 19,319

FT Joins The Fray: "Fed Likely To Signal Tapering Move"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2013 - 14:13

It seems not only the entire developed world is sick and tired of Hilsenrath's "leaks" which have now become so grotesquely self-contradictory, not even Hilsenfollowers can make out the Hilsenfact from the Hilsenjoke. So it appears the Fed has now picked the FT as its interim pass through vehicle: "Ben Bernanke is likely to signal that the US Federal Reserve is close to tapering down its $85bn-a-month in asset purchases when he holds a press conference on Wednesday, but balance that by saying subsequent moves depend on what happens to the economy."