• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...
  • Phoenix Capital...
    02/06/2016 - 10:15
    2008 was caused by derivatives based on consumer-focused assets (houses). The next crisis will be driven by derivatives on government-focused assets (bonds).

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Oil Bulls Beware: Gartman Is No Longer "Manifestly Bearish Of Oil"

"Having been manifestly bearish of crude oil over the course of the past many, many months we are moving to the sidelines in light of the “reversal” to the upside staged by WTI and Brent crude yesterday and in light of the sharp move lower on the part of the contangos in both crude types."

- Dennis Gartman


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Frontrunning: February 5

  • January Jobs Report Closely Watched for Momentum, Wages (WSJ)
  • Oil prices steady, weak fundamentals weigh after volatile week (Reuters)
  • How Much Global Oil Output Halted Due to Low Prices? Just 0.1% (BBG)
  • Congress Tweet 'Unfortunate,' Lawyer Says as Shkreli Goes Online (BBG)
  • Syrians Flee Aleppo to Escape Damascus Offensive Against Rebels (WSJ)
  • Dollar Set for Biggest Weekly Loss Since 2009 Before Jobs Data (BBG)

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Futures Unchanged, Global Stock Algos Anemic Ahead Of U.S. Payrolls Report

US futures were largely unchanged overnight, with a modest bounce after the European close driven by a feeble attempt to push oil higher, faded quickly and as of this moment the E-mini was hugging the flatline ahead of today's main event - the January payrolls, expected to print at 190K and 5.0% unemployment, however the whisper number - that required to push stocks higher - is well lower, at 150K (according to DB), as only a bad (in fact very bad) jobs number today will cement the Fed's relent and assure no more rate hikes in 2016 as the market now largely expects.


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Four Days After Predicting Oil Will Double, T. Boone Pickens Sells All Oil Holdings

Literally days after he predicted oil would double from its $26 "bottom", Pickens told Bloomberg that he has cashed out.


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A Preview Of This Weekend's Event That Could Unleash A "Vicious Bear Market Rally"

"... if China FX reserves data is better than expected, we think a bear market rally is likely to be vicious."


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Kyle Bass Asks If China Is Fine, Why Are They So Worried About "Some Hedge Fund Manager In Texas"

“If some fund manager in Texas is saying that your currency is dramatically overvalued, you shouldn’t care on a $10 trillion economy with $34 trillion in your banks. I have, call it a billion - it’s so small it should be irrelevant and yet somehow it’s really relevant.”


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What Is The Best Method Of Rebellion Against Tyranny?

If you fight, then there is a chance.  If you do not fight, then failure is guaranteed.  The "odds" are irrelevant.  How you fight (fighting smart) is the only matter of importance.


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Hyperinflating Venezuela Used 36 Boeing 747 Cargo Planes To Deliver Its Worthless Bank Notes

Recently we joked that it is unclear just where Venezuela will find all the paper banknotes it needs for all its new currency.  And, as if on cue, the WSJ answered. As it turns out we were not the only ones wondering how the devastated "socialist paradise" gets its exponentially collapsing paper currency, which in just the past month has lost 17% of its value. The answer: 36 Boeing 747s.


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A Distracted Society Keeps The Police State In Power

Freedom is an action word. It means turning off your screen devices - or at least greatly reducing your viewing time - and getting active to take to stave off the emerging authoritarian government. Aldous Huxley, George Orwell, and the countless science fiction writers and commentators have warned that we are in a race between getting actively involved in the world around us or facing disaster. If we’re watching, we’re not doing.


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German Professor Says All Students Should Be Required To Learn Arabic

"German and Arabic should be mandatory for all students through high school. We would appreciate it, to be a country of immigration and a multilingual society."


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Congress Wants To Turn The US Postal Service... Into A Bank

The Postal Service desperately needs cash. So what better way to raise capital than to sucker unsuspecting Americans into opening up Postal bank accounts? There’s a term for this. It’s called a Ponzi Scheme.


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The Cozy Relationship Between The Treasury And The Fed

As much as economists talk about the independence that the Fed holds from Congress, remittances represent a strong link. In fact, since they enable federal spending they create a form of quasi-fiscal policy for the Fed to use, in addition to its more common monetary policy options. Without Fed remittances, retirees might see their monthly check cut by about 12 percent.


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Closing In: Russia, Iran, Assad "Encircle" Syria's Largest City As Peace Talks Collapse In Geneva

It appears that after a protracted fight, Russia and Hezbollah are poised to recapture Aleppo where militants are now surrounded. Critically, Russia and Iran have now cut off supply lines from Turkey. With the deck now stacked against the opposition, John Kerry and, to a greater extent Turkey, are getting visibly desperate.


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What Happens Next?

It would be hard to find better proof that the canary in the coalmine is singing and that his song is landing on ears deafened by 6 years of BTFD behavior than this.


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