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The Bubble Deflates – And Crash Risk Rises

We already suspected in mid 2013 (worrying about the market far too early as it has turned out in hindsight) that there were parallels to what happened in the late 1990s bull market, specifically near its end in the year 2000. However, in the meantime, even more such parallels have become noticeable.


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"We Can Put Refugees On Buses": Leaked Memo Shows Erdogan Blackmailed Europe For Billions

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's bullying isn’t confined to his domestic political agenda. Greek media has obtained an internal memo which suggests the Turkish strongman effectively blackmailed the EU by demanding cash payments in exchange for efforts to curb the flow of migrants into Western Europe "So how will you deal with the refugees if you don't get a deal? Kill them?"


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Credit Better Be Wrong This Time

Who do you trust?


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Either Banks Are Cheap... Or The Market's Gonna Crash

Simply put, either large cap Financials are cheap, or the entire U.S. equity market is still overpriced. Their precipitous decline year to date means markets fear they are both the transmission mechanism for a global slowdown/recession to come and a primary victim of that event.


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The Increasingly Fragile Upper-Middle Class

The upper-middle class that's supported the "recovery" with massive discretionary spending is far more vulnerable to implosion/insolvency than is generally appreciated.


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"Timmy" Geithner Gets Loan From Jamie Dimon For PE Investment

“You are in a position to make 20 percent to 30 percent on your position in the fund. Why wouldn’t you buy in at Libor-plus to leverage that up?”


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Horror Stories Emerge After A Cursory Look At Chinese Corporate Leverage

In any other case debt/EBITDA at or higher than 10x - certainly 15x - in a world in which cash flows are rapidly deteriorating would be an excuse for bondholders to take to the hills. But when you have such leverage ratios as 83x one can only quietly stand back, find a place behind which to hide, and hunker down ahead of the coming explosion.


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Gold Tops $1200 For First Time Since June

Barbarous Relic or safe haven of last resort? Since The Fed policy-error'd in December, gold is now up 22% over US equities...


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Gunshots Heard In Hong Kong As Police Battle Angry Crowds On First Day Of Chinese New Year

17 months after the "Umbrella Revolution", the streets of Hong Kong have once again turned chaotic on the first day of the Chinese New Year...


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Treasury Yield Curve Crashes To 8-Year Lows, Financials Follow

The US Treasury yield curve has plunged further today (2s10s -5bps at 107bps)  breaking to its flattest since January 2008. The curve has been flattening since The Fed began to taper QE3 and as financials begin to catch down to that ugly reality, one wonders just what The Fed can do about this...


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Bill Clinton Slams "Sexist" Sanders 'Trolling'... Yeah Seriously

Following Madeleine Albright's ugly statements, it is very clear from today's outbursts from Bill Clinton that Hillary is growing more and more desperate as Bernie Sanders' bumbling socialism trumps a lying, cheating, crony capitalist... "Vicious trolling," Clinton dubbed apparent Sanders' comments made towards female Clinton supporters, "that are literally too profane often - not to mention sexist - to repeat."


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Dow Dumps 600 Points From "Great" Jobs Report Highs

But it was a "great" jobs report, right?


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The Financial (Under)World Is Catching Down To The "Economy Of Actual Stuff"

In the USA, that economy has bled out like a hapless bystander with a sucking chest wound for the last eight years. Despite all the patriotic sanctimony on view at the Superbowl, the nation appears to be visibly cracking up, along with the fantasy of a permanent global economy. None of the desperate work-arounds since 2008 have worked around the predicaments of our time.


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Maybe Albert’s Crazy Forecast Is Not That Crazy After All

"Albert Edwards sees the possibility of a 75% decline from the peak if all his fears were to manifest themselves. Now many view this as an incredible and somewhat outlandish forecast, yet it is not that unreasonable in our view.... These types of declines would leave indices down rough 60-65% from peak, and would send leverage ratios skyrocketing."


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