Farage Denies Conceding: "We Haven't Had A Single Bloody Vote Counted"; S&P Futures Surge

In a twist worthy of a soap opera, just minutes after Sky and the major newswires reported that Nigel Farage said "looks like Remain will edge it", a Nigel Farage spokesman told Bloomberg that "he never conceded. He looked at the prevailing weather and was honest. We're not saying it's over. We haven't had a single bloody vote counted", even as just moments later, wires reported that Nigel Farage told the Press Association he thinks Britain has voted to stay in the European Union based on “what I know from some of my friends in the financial markets who have done some big polling”.

America's Seen 50% Surge In Partisan Conflict Since Obama's Second Term Started

'Hope & Change' and devolved into Nope & Deranged... Since the start of President Obama's second term, Goldman Sachs note that the Partisan Conflict Index has averaged 50% higher than its 30 year average. So who is to blame? President Obama's divisiveness? Or The Federal Reserve's extremely accommodative monetary polict removing any need for actual decision-making?

"I've Never Felt So Resigned To The Fact That We Are All Stuck..."

"I’ve never felt so ... resigned ... to the fact we are ALL well and truly stuck. The Fed is stuck. The ECB and the BOJ are stuck. The banks are stuck. Corporations are stuck. Asset managers are stuck. Financial advisors are stuck. Investors are stuck. Republicans are stuck. Democrats are stuck. We are all stuck in a very powerful political equilibrium where the costs of changing our current bleak course of ineffective monetary policy and counter-productive regulatory policy are so astronomical that The Powers That Be have no alternative but to continue with what they know full well isn’t working."

The Fed's 3rd Mandate & The Value Of Cash

Jan 2008: Bernanke "The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession." Jun 2008: Bernanke "The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished." Jun 2016: Yellen "chances of recession this year are 'quite low'... The U.S. economy is doing well. My expectation is that the U.S. economy will continue to grow." Channelling Bernanke?

Stress Test 2016: Fed Says All 33 Banks Can Surive 70 VIX Without Needing Outside Capital

While hardly coming as a surprise to anyone, moments ago the Fed announced that all 33 banks have enough capital to withstand a severe economic shock, though Morgan Stanley trailed the rest of Wall Street in a key measure of leverage, Bloomberg reports. The biggest bank cleared the most severe scenario handily, with the exception of Morgan Stanley whose projected 4.9% leverage ratio tied for last place alongside a Canadian bank’s U.S. unit, falling within a percentage point of the 4 percent minimum. As a result of today's "test result" many banks will likely win regulators' approval next week to boost dividends.

Crude Oil Options Traders "Most Bearish" Since At Least 2010

The 'skew' between bearish puts and bullish calls has not been this negatively positioned since at least 2010 (when Bloomberg data began). "This negative skew developing is moving in sympathy with what we’re observing in the physical market," according to BNP's Harry Tchilinguirian, and just as the skew was drastically bullish at the lows in January, one might wonder if the smart-money is right once again...

UBS' Trading Roadmap For The "Day After" Brexit

Moments ago we presented a contrarian thesis from Greg Peters of how markets would react to a Leave vote (and by impliocation, Remain). Next, we go back to a more conventional model of how assets would react, and present "a roadmap for the 'Day After'" from UBS, which seeks to answer the question "at what level would we buy or sell each key asset class in either a Remain or a Leave scenario?" It then show ranges of the potential near-term market reactions.

Is The Market Looking At It Wrong: "Buy US Assets In Case Of Brexit" Says Greg Peters

Nmerous traders have suggested, that Brexit - should Remain indeed be victorious - could be one of the more significant "sell the news" events in recent years. However, an even more interesting hypothesis was proposed by Gregory Peters, senior investment officer at Prudential Fixed Income, who told Reuters on Tuesday that he thinks U.S. stocks and bonds are a "great" buying opportunity if Britain votes to exit the European Union.

After Legalizing Recreational Weed, Teen Use In Colorado Lower Than Rest Of Country

Cannabis prohibitionists have long cautioned that legalizing the plant will inevitably lead to increased use among teens, couching their restrictive beliefs in concern for the youth. While some of these concerns may be genuine, a recent survey from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment demonstrates — for the second year in a row — that youth in Colorado do not use cannabis any more than teens in other parts of the country. In fact, by at least one measure, they use less.