WTI crude had tanked into the NYMEX close (by the most in 5 months) but managed to get back above $28 before fading into inventory data. Against expectations of a 3.6mm build, API reported a 2.4mm barrel crude build (the 5th weekly build in a row). Even more critically, API reported a 3.1mm Gasoline build (notably above the expected +400k build) and Cushing saw a 2nd weekly build of 715k. WTI ignored it initially but then decided to rally modestly before fading to unch.
Let me be blunt: this next crash will be far worse and more dramatic than any that has come before. Literally, the world has never seen anything like the situation we collectively find ourselves in today. The so-called Great Depression happened for purely monetary reasons. Before, during and after the Great Depression, abundant resources, spare capacity and willing workers existed in sufficient quantities to get things moving along smartly again once the financial system had been reset. This time there’s something different in the story line...
The Board of Directors of Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC) today declared a quarterly cash dividend on the company's common stock of 5 cents per share, payable March 23, 2016, to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 9, 2016. The quarterly dividend represents a 22-cent reduction from the prior level of 27 cents per share.
Just 40 full days into 2016, not only has Goldman been closed out on its Top Trade for 2016, namely being long the USD vs both the Yen and the Euro, but virtually all of its other trades: according to a just released update, Goldman has just been stopped out - with a loss - on 5 of its 6 top trades for 2016.
BTFD? Because nothing says stability like record high credit risk...
One would imagine that in a market as skittish for risk as this one, that selling $24 billion in 3 Year paper would be if not as easy as pie, then as simple as last month's issuance, when not a cloud was visible when the Treasury sold 3 Year paper. One would be wrong, because moments ago the US Treasury managed to sell precisely that amount in February 2019 paper, however at a notable concession to the When Issued, with the high yield of 0.844% tailing the When Issued by 0.7 bps, while the Bid to Cover of 2.742 was the lowest since July of 2009.
Global equity market investors have lost a stunning $16.5 trillion of their newfound CB-fueled "wealth" in the last six months. This has erased half of the gains from the 2011 lows (but of course leaves all the debt created still in place). However, what is perhaps more troubling given the unprecedented money-printing since the last crisis peak, is that global equity market "wealth" is now down 10% from its November 2007 prior highs.
These are trying times. Fortunately, Narayana Kocherlakota is a "courageous" man with "daring" solutions.
The year continues to be bruising for risk assets and recent attempts at stabilisation have been unsuccessful. After a mild rebound, equities and US credit spreads are again close to their year’s worst levels. In addition to the initial concerns about China and energy, two new issues further weigh on risk sentiment: the slowdown in US growth momentum and the tightening of financial conditions especially in European financial credit.
“Are we closer to an economic recession or a continued expansion?” With the Fed hiking interest rates, and talking a tough game of continued economic strength, the risk of a “policy error” has risen markedly in recent months. The markets, falling inflation indicators, and plunging interest rates are all suggesting the same.
"I don't mean that in a negative way. I am happy."
Money flows are becoming increasingly disconnected from fundamental price movements.
Too much mal-invested, Fed-fueled, hope-driven "if we build it, they will buy it" inventory... and not enough actual demand. This has never, ever, ended well in the past - so why is this time different?