• GoldCore
    07/01/2015 - 10:07
    With all eyes on Greece it would seem another crisis relating to unpayable debt is brewing in the Caribbean. The governor of Puerto Rico, Alejandro García Padilla, has warned that the island is...

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Consumer Confidence Soars In June On Spike In Hope

As Gallup's Consumer Confidence plunges, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence explodes higher from 94.6 to 101.4 (smashing expectations of 97.4). After missing by the most in 5 years in April, higher gas prices, market instability, and growing social unrest appear to be the perfect recipe for improved consumer confidence as The Conference Board data nears the highest since 2007. The biggest driver of the headline spike is the surge in "expectations" - in other words, hope - which jumped from 86.2 to 94.6, although expectations for higher incomes finally began to drop back to reality.



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Chicago PMI Prints Worst June Since 2008 As Employment Tumbles

Chicago PMI has now missed 4 of the last 5 months and printed sub-50 contractionary indications for 4 of the last 5 months. June's data improved from May (rising from 46.2 to 49.4) but missed expectations and is the weakest June print since 2008. Notably, away from 2015, June's print is the weakest since September 2009. Under the covers it was ugly - employment plunged to the weakest since Nov 2009, order backlogs plunges to the lowest since September 2009, and prices paid rose again (pressuring margins).



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The Global Template For Collapse: The Enchanting Charms Of Cheap, Easy Credit

Cheap, easy credit has created moral hazard and nurtured magical thinking throughout the global economy.



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There Is One 'Small' Problem With The Crowdfunded Greek Bailout Campaign

In the latest example that there are generous, perhaps even noble people, still left, Crowdfunding site Indiegogo has released a crowd sourced "Greek Bailout Fund" which in just 1 day has already managed to raise around €100,000 from over 6,300 contributors. Noble, generous... and quite idiotic, for one simple reason - the math is horribly wrong.



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Case-Shiller US Home Price Index Drops Most In A Year

While the 20-City index rose 4.9% YoY (but missed expectations by the most since July 2014), Case-Shiller's US Home Price Index dropped 0.02% in April - the first MoM drop since May 2014. Of course, all real estate is local and we note Denver and San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year gains with price increases of 10.3% and 10.0%, respectively, over the last 12 months.  As S&P's David Blitzer warns, "home prices continue to rise across the country, but the pace is not accelerating."



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When The PBOC Went All-In: China Stocks See Biggest Intraday Swing In 23 Years

Having thrown the kitchen sink at their collapsing ponzi-scheme of a market in the past two days, only to see stocks open and crash once again overnight, it appears The PBOC went full intervention-tard in the middle of the morning session. With CHINEXT down over 7% and Shnghai down over 4%, the manipulation was rooted in CSI-300 futures as while cash markets saw margin calls and liquidation, futures were surging. By the close China's 'Nasdaq' had ripped 13% off its lows and the broad market's intrday swing was the largest since 1992... The PBOC's got your back.



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In Big Boost To "No" Vote, Schauble Hints Greece Can Default And Stay In Euro

In waht appears to be some level of German backing down, fiery FinMin Schaeuble has, reportedly said the following:

*SCHAEUBLE SAID TO SAY GREECE MAY BE ABLE TO TAP EU SUPPORT FUND
*SCHAEUBLE SAID TO SEE GREECE STAYING IN EURO EVEN IF 'NO' VOTE

Thus spurring the probability of a consequence-less "no" vote on Sunday enabling the increased negotiating position that The Greek government had hoped for. Of course, desperate for any excuse, stocks and EUR are rallying on this and bonds are selling off.



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Frontrunning: June 30

  • EU in last-ditch bid to Greece, urges "yes" vote to bailout (Reuters)
  • In? Out? In between? A Greek legal riddle for EU (Reuters)
  • Tsipras Says EU Won’t Eject Greece as Cost ‘Immense’ (BBG)
  • Empty Greek ATMs Force Tourists to Stiff Santorini Cabbies (BBG)
  • Anti-austerity protests in Greece as bank shutdown bites (Reuters)
  • Puerto Rico governor calls for bankruptcy; adviser says island 'insolvent' (Reuters)
  • Puerto Rico Urges Concessions From Creditors (WSJ)
  • Hilsenrath - For Fed to Delay Rate Hikes, Global Tumult Would Need to Infect U.S. (WSJ)


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Varoufakis Confirms Greece Will Default To IMF Today

GREEK FINANCE MINISTER SAYS GREECE WILL NOT PAY IMF ON TUESDAY.



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European Regulators Suspend Trading In Greek Bonds Citing "Trading Harmony"

Regulators across Europe are beginning to curtail trading in Greek assets as the country’s stock market remains closed and Greeks grapple with capital controls and prepare for a default to the IMF at midnight.



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Germany Pre-emptively Crushes Today's Rumormill, Says Too Late To "Discuss Greek Program Extension"

In our overnight market wrap, we said that with the Greek D-Day doubling as quarter end for countless hedge funds most of which are now suddenly underwater, there would be a plethora of rumors designed to spark buying momentum algos which would provide brief selling opportunities. Alas, Germany appears to have crushed that particular option, when moments ago a German made it clear that at this point the only catalyst will be the now virtually certain Greek default to the IMF at midnight (+/- 1 leap second) Greek time. To wit: TOO LATE TO DISCUSS GREEK PROGRAM EXTENSION: GERMAN OFFICIAL



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Greek D(efault)-Day Arrives, As Does China's Plunge Protection Team

The Greek D-(efault) day has arrived, and with it so has quarter-end window dressing for many underwater hedge funds (recall the S&P is now red for the 2015) which means the rumor mill today will be off the charts. And sure enough, less than an hour ago, futures exploded higher as did the EURUSD, following another "report/rumor" of a last minute detente between Greece and the Troika when Greek Ekahtimerini said that  "Tsipras is reconsidering the last-ditch offer made by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, sources have told Kathimerini."



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JPMorgan Just Cornered The Commodity Derivative Market, And This Time There Is Proof

For years there had been speculation, rumor and hearsay that JPM had cornered the US commodities market. Now, finally, we have documented proof.



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The Mood On The Ground In Greece: "Some Have Raised The Prospect Of Civil War"

"There have been some people that worry that the military may actually get involved. It wouldn't surprise me - there are some people in Greece that have raised the whole prospect of potential civil war."



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