You know it's bad when...
The Man in the Moon studies the pathology of Earth’s global economy and markets from a distance where there’s no gravitational pull towards empiricism or consensus. His findings: 1) the global economy is over-leveraged, fragile, stagnating, and increasingly centrally managed; 2) capital markets and asset performance have been captured by the perception of the ongoing value of money, and so; 3) unconventional investment analysis is prudent.
In spite of all of the 'apparently good' outcomes of Cuba’s experimentation with equal sharing of wealth; in recent years Cuba seems to be moving away from the planned economy model. Instead, it is moving to more of a “mixed economy,” with more entrepreneurship encouraged. While we don’t have explanations for all of the things that are going on, here are a few insights on what is happening...
As another example of "has the world gone mad?" - we present the following words of wisdom from BoJ Governor Kuroda-san:
*KURODA DOESN'T SEE ANY ASSET BUBBLE OR STOCK MARKET BUBBLE, OR ANY 'FINANCIAL EXCESS' IN ECONOMY
And in the interests of sanity, we highly suggest he not look at the chart below...
"Total hero to me; total hero... Not necessarily [for] what he exposed, but the fact that he internally came from his own heart, his own belief in the United States Constitution, what democracy and freedom was about."
In Part 1 of “The New Silk Road,” we examined the China’s plan for rebuilding the Silk Road, stretching from Europe to Asia. In Part 2, we look at currently proposed projects, and geopolitical rivalries that could stall and hamper progress. Until very recently, it was widely assumed that the US would lead its western allies in a campaign against the Russian/Chinese deal to develop the Silk Road, but events have been reversing with remarkable speed.
The US and China are racing towards a maritime conflict stemming from Beijing’s construction of what Washington has condescendingly called “sand castles” in the Spratly archipelago. With Beijing set to enforce what is effectively a no-fly zone over its new sovereign ‘territory’ we bring you an infographic which shows that when it comes to sheer size, China’s air force and Navy are beyond compare.
"More than 35 million young people, aged 16-29 are neither employed nor in education or training," the OECD reports. Meanwhile, two-thirds of college graduates will depend on their parents for up to five years after graduation in the US.
Markets are not cheap by any measure. If earnings growth continues to wane or interest rates rise, the bull market thesis will collapse as "expectations" collide with "reality." This is not a dire prediction of doom and gloom, nor is it a "bearish" forecast. It is just a function of how markets work over time. This time is "not different." The only difference will be what triggers the next valuation reversion when it occurs.
Representatives from the European Union recently closed out a summit in Riga to decide the future of EU visa policy with respect to Ukraine. Once again, Ukraine was denied visa-free access to the EU, proving that “European support” for Ukraine against Russia is just hot air and empty promises. There are, however, 19 other countries, which will be joining the EU visa-free list as of July 1, 2015.
"The IRS believes that a major cyber breach that allowed criminals to steal the tax returns of more than 100,000 people originated in Russia", CNN says, in what amounts to an escalation of what Washington claims is a cyberwar against a growing list of so-called "cyberadversaries."
WTI Crude hit new 6-week lows at $57.36 after the close as API inventory data showed a build of 1.268 million barrels (after 3 weeks of draws) - dramatically higher than the 5.2mm barrel draw last week. Cushing saw a very small 72k draw.