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Goldman "Conspiracy Theory" Validated As ECB Expands QE Program

The ECB has expanded the list of PSPP-eligible SSA bonds, setting the stage for more ECB QE and turning one more conspiracy "theory" into conspiracy "fact."



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Is Saudi Arabia Leaving The U.S. Behind For Russia?

The news from the recent St. Petersburg Economic Forum, which took place from June 18 to 20, inspired a torrent of speculation on the future direction of energy prices. But the real buzz at the conference was the unexpected but much publicized visit of the Saudi Deputy Crown Prince, as an emissary of the King. The unusually high level delegation from a long-time ally and protectorate of the U.S., like Saudi Arabia, visiting a Russian sponsored economic conference, in a country sanctioned by the U.S. was news enough but could be the first sign of an emerging partnership between the two greatest global oil producers.



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Payrolls Reaction: Stocks, Bonds, Bullion Bid; Dollar Dump-And-Pump

The kneejerk reaction to the "miss" in jobs data is that it is great news... and reduces the probability of rate hike being imminent. Stocks are bid (hovering at yesterday's highs), bonds rallied (yields down 4-6bps), gold popped (after being dumped into the print) and the Dollar is tumbling (though seeing a bid and bouncing back)... bad news is good news it seems...



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June Payrolls Increase By 223K, Less Than Expected; Unemployment Rate Drops To 5.3%

According to the BLS, in June the US added 223K payrolls, less than the expected 233K, even as the the US unemployment rate dropped to 5.3% from 5.4%. Worse, the previous number was revised from 280K to  254K. Worst of all, average hourly earnings were flat despite expectations of a 0.2%, and a big drop from last month's 0.3%.



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Your Last Minute Payrolls Preview: What Wall Street Expects

While we showed what the all important Goldman jobs preview looks like, here is a quick snapshot of what consensus expects will be reported in 15 minutes:

  • US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) M/M Exp. 233K (Low 160K, High 290K), Prev. 280K, Apr. 221K
  • US Unemployment Rate (Jun) M/M Exp. 5.4% (Low 5.3%, High 5.5%), Prev. 5.5%, Apr. 5.4%
  • US Average Hourly Earnings (Jun) M/M Exp. 0.2% (Low 0.1%, High 0.3%), Prev. 0.3%, Apr. 0.1%


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With Sweden's QE Officially Broken, The Riksbank Doubles Down: Lowers Rates Even More Negative; Boosts QE

Overnight the Riksbank confirmed that it neither learns from its own mistakes, nor reads BIS reports when at 9:30 CET, it shocked central bank watcher all of whom were expecting no rate change from the bank, and announced it is not only engaging in yet another rate cut, taking the key rate even further into record NIRP territory, from -0.25% to -0.35% but adding insult to broken QE injury, it would expand its QE by a further SEK 45 billion starting in September. The reason? Sweden is realizing it is losing the currency war (to a great extent due to its failed QE which is pushing bond yields higher and with it, its currency) and it needs to soak up even more collateral... which can barely be found.



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Train Carrying Toxic Gas Derails In Tennessee, Catches Fire; Thousands Evacuated

Remember when oil pipelines were at risk of spilling and as a result the progressive movement decided it would be far safer to transport US oil by train, because supposedly trains are so much safer for the environment, only to lead to a record surge in oil-carrying train accidents and derailments? Well, not even the most hardline of environment-friendlies could have anticipated what happened overnight in Blount County, Tennessee after a freight train derailed carrying flammable and poisonous material caught on fire on Wednesday night, leading to the evacuation of as many as 5000 residents from their homes.



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Frontrunning: July 2

  • Chinese stocks tumble again, ignoring Beijing's blandishments (Reuters)
  • Plight of Greek pensioners heaps pressure on Tsipras (Reuters)
  • Cash Crunch Hits Everyday Life in Greece (WSJ)
  • Souvlakis Tell a Story Well Beyond Today's Greek Crisis (BBG)
  • Greek Referendum on Bailout Too Close to Call, Poll Shows (BBG)
  • Move Over Greece: For Treasuries Traders, Today Is About the Fed (BBG)
  • ECB adds corporate names to QE-eligible bonds (FT)
  • Special Report: How Greece went bust (Reuters)
  • Puerto Rico’s Pain Is Tied to U.S. Wages (WSJ)


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China Crash Accelerates, Drags Composite Under 4000; US Futures Flat Ahead Of Nonfarm Payrolls

If it was Greece's intention to crush the Chinese stock market instead of Europe's, well - it succeeded.  Because despite the PBOC and politburo throwing everything but QE at the stock market, China stocks closed down sharply on Thursday after another wild trading day as investors shrugged off regulators' intensified efforts to put a floor under the sliding market, by cutting trading fees and easing margin rules, which has now crashed 25% in about two weeks wiping out $2.5 trillion of the peak $10 trillion in Chinese stock market cap as of June 14. This ultimately resulted with the Shanghai Composite closing under 4000 for the first time since April.



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The "Smartest Money" Is Liquidating Stocks At A Record Pace: "Selling Everything That’s Not Bolted Down"

Buyout firms conducted 97 stock offerings in the second quarter, more than in any other three-month period. "It’s clear that we are currently in an environment of frothy valuations,” said Lise Buyer, founder of IPO advisory firm Class V Group. Her disturbing punchline: "The insiders - those with the most knowledge - are finding this a very good time to take some money off the table." In an echo of Leon Black, Frank Maturo, vice chairman of equity capital markets at UBS AG, said, “Private equity is selling everything that’s not bolted down."



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Is This Why 'Europe' Is Now Trying To Crush Greece?

"...won’t a successful Greece show others that — much as many young people who cannot afford to pay their rent return home — they, too, can return to the way things used to be?..."

Simply put -  Europe can't 'afford' anything positive to come of Greece...



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US Police More Concerned About "Anti-Government" Domestic Extremists Than Al-Qaeda, Study Finds

U.S. law enforcement agencies rank the threat of violence from anti-government extremists higher than the threat from radicalized Muslims, according to a report released Thursday by the Triangle Center on Terrorism and Homeland Security (TCTHS). We have previously warned that any totalitarian apparatus implemented to fight an outside enemy, would ultimately be turned around and used upon the public domestically; and now it seems confirmed that the real enemy of the corrupt corporate state is none other than, “we the people.”



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Red China Goes Redder, Stocks Tumble Despite Government Ban On Bearish Talk

Despite more liquidity injections (CNY35 billion 7day RevRepo), archaic deals for brokerages to manipulate their balance sheets, and local reporters noting China's propaganda ministry ordering state media to publish only positive opinions about the stock market, not to criticize, Chinese stocks are in red once again. The record streak of margin debt declines continues and although futures were driven up early on, any strength has been sold into as unwinds wreak havoc on the ponzi wealth creation scheme. All major indices are in the red with Shenzhen (home of the 500%-club) the worst, down around 2% (though as CNBC would say "off the lows").



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Payrolls Preview: Goldman Expects Jobs Data To Disappoint

Despite much hopeful banter among the mainstream media, Goldman forecast nonfarm payroll job growth of 220k in June, notably below consensus expectations of 234k. This is roughly in line with Goldman's expectations for below average job growth over the remainder of 2015. Employment indicators were mixed in June: reported job availability, the employment components of most manufacturing surveys, and ADP employment growth improved, but jobless claims and job cuts both rose slightly and online job ads declined. Overall, the June data point to a gain below the very strong 280k increase in May.



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