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Peak IPO

For a while the window 'grab-the-greater-fool's-money' had closed... but with stocks surging back to all-time record highs on the back of dismal data and dangerous geopolitics, the IPO bandwagon has once again exploded as 25 new names are expected to attempt to squeeze through the door this week before it once again slams shut. As WSJ notes, this is the highest number of IPOs in a week since August 2000. Is this Peak IPO? Or will it go Peak-er?



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Here's What Wall Street Bulls Were Saying In December 2007

The attached Barron’s article appeared in December 2007 as an outlook for the year ahead, and Wall Street strategists were waxing bullish. Notwithstanding the advanced state of disarray in the housing and mortgage markets, soaring global oil prices and a domestic economic expansion cycle that was faltering and getting long in the tooth, Wall Street strategists were still hitting the “buy” key. In fact, the Great Recession had already started but they didn’t have a clue: "Against this troubling backdrop, it’s no wonder investors are worried that the bull market might end in 2008. But Wall Street’s top equity strategists are quick to dismiss such fears."

 



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Mapping The Global Contagion From Portugal's Systemic Banking Crisis

As multiple entities of one of Europe's largest banking dynasties rapidly crumble into bankruptcy, there are bound to be ramifications. With even the Portuguese President fearing Espirito Santo's systemic impact, we thought the following chart from Thomson Reuters would highlight the fact that is far more than just a Portugal thing... it has notable consequences for large businesses from Brazil to Mozambique.



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US-Israeli Relationship In Jeopardy, Kerry "Ruined Everything"

Is there anyone in the world who is not mocking John Kerry? As AP reports, Obama administration officials were fuming Monday over a torrent of Israeli criticism of Secretary of State John Kerry's latest bid to secure a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. Israeli media commentators have leveled almost nonstop criticism at Kerry in recent days over his attempts to bring Qatar and Turkey — two countries viewed by Israel as strong Hamas supporters — into the cease-fire negotiations - "U.S. Secretary of State of State John Kerry ruined everything." The White House is not happy - in unusually harsh language, officials said the criticism of Kerry could put the relationship between the U.S. and Israel in jeopardy. They also said the personal attacks on Kerry crossed a line. Another red line crossed?



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Is This Why The Market Just Turned Green?

SSDD: Big dump at the open, then the usual low volume levitation higher as the BTFD algos engage. But why? While the economic news today was bad it wasn't so horrible to merit a new all time high in the "market", while geopolitical developments continue to deteriorate, however at the usual "better than expected" pace. So what might have been the reason for today's latest surge higher which just brought the "market" back into the green? This note from Dennis Gartman may well have been the catalyst.



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2 Year Paper Prices At Highest Yield Since May 2011; Directs Tumble, Dealers Surge

The most notable fact about today's $29 billion auction of 2 Year Notes was that the final yield of 0.544%, which stopped through the 0.546% When Issued, is that this was the highest auction yield since May of 2011 when the paper, since matured, priced at 0.56%. Considering some at the Fed anticipate the Fed Funds rate hitting over 4% by the time this bond is supposed to mature, either the Fed hawks or the market is wrong.



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Earnings Recovery? Europe Would Love Some Of That

As the following just released chart from Goldman shows that while non-GAAP EPS in the US have stabilized (and Japan is clearly the upside suprise even as its economy is once again teetering on the edge of recession), and Asia ex Japan is slowly rolling over once more, it is Europe that is the big shocker: as of July, European 2014 EPS forecasts are now the lowest they have been for the entire year, and are down 8% from where they were at the beginning of the year!



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The Case For A Bull Or Bear Market In Two Charts

Which appears more likely - a straight-line extension of the past two years' rise in stocks, or another "impossible" decline to complete the megaphone pattern?



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Russia Slams "Puzzling And Unprecedented" $50 Billion Yukos Award, Challenges "One-Sided" Court Ruling

The Hague is not Vladimir Putin's favorite place today. Following the "war crime" comments earlier, the arbitration court's decision to rule in favor of Yukos shareholders (and thuis against the allegedly "politically motivated" confiscation of the firm's assets by the Russian government) with a $50 billion settlement (half what was sought) has prompted a quick and angry response from the Russian government. Blasting the "one-sided use of evidence," and re-iterating the massive tax evasion that the leadership were involved in, Russia slams "the puzzling unprecedented amount of damages" awarded, claiming the process is "becoming increasingly politicized."



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Liberia Finance Ministry Scrambles To "Instil Confidence" After Employee Dies From Ebola

• Use of the elevator is restricted to only 4 persons per trip
• Absolutely, no clustering on the stairways
• No gathering of more than five persons except for meetings in conference spaces or spatial environment
• Absolutely no handshakes, hugging of other physical bodily contact
• Please report any suspicious illness or strange conditions amongst employees
• Only persons with genuine business dealings and transactions would be permitted on the premises
• All employees are further encouraged to wear long sleeve clothing to minimize any possible risk of exposure



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LOCO IPO Soars To Insane 20x EBITDA Multiple

The "fear of missing out" (on the next Chipotle) is strong with this one as El Pollo Loco (LOCO) IPO'd at $15 on Friday, opened at $19 and today explodes to almost $33 at a mind-numbing ~20x EBITDA (market cap over $1.2 billion on a $53 million EBITDA)... crazy chicken indeed...



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Libya Warns Oil-Fire Is "Out Of Control" - What 1.5 Million Gallons Of Burning Gasoline Looks Like

UPDATE: Caught on tape... A second fuel tank in the Libyan capital Tripoli has caught fire, which Libya's National Oil Company has described as "out of control".

A dark cloud hangs over Tripoli today... but this time it's physical not metaphorical. As NBC reports, a rocket hit a fuel storage tank containing 1.5 million gallons of gasoline, triggering a major blaze as rival brigades of former rebels fought for control of Tripoli's main airport. A huge cloud of black smoke billowed across the capital's skyline as the blaze burned "out of control," and firefighters had withdrawn from the area.



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100 Years Ago Today It Began: "Austria Has Chosen War"

The good news is that 100 years later the world is a far more stable and peaceful place.



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Macro Weakness Sends Stocks Reeling, All Indices Red Post-MH17

Well that escalated quickly. Friday's micro (earnings-based) weakness has extended to today's macro weakness and removed any "ignore the geopolitics, just buy the dips"-exuberance. All US equity indices are once again below the levels pre-MH17 headlines with the Dow and Russell 2000 worst performers. It appears investors need some reassurance that Yellen's "price-equity" ratio is still 'fair'.



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