ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged

As widely expected from the formulaic statement issued by the ECB ahead of Draghi's press conference, the central bank announced moments ago that it kept all three of its interest rates unchanged as follows:

  • ECB keeps main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.00%.
  • Leaves deposit facility rate unchanged at -0.40%
  • Keeps marginal lending rate unchanged at 0.25%

Now attention turns to Draghi in 45 minutes where his press conference is expected to give some additional color on how the central bank will address the issue of rapidly disappearing collateral.

Frontrunning: July 21

  • Global stocks nurse nine-month highs before ECB meeting (Reuters)
  • Kuroda Says No Need and No Possibility for Helicopter Money (BBG)
  • As Republican Party tries to heal wounds, discord rules at convention (Reuters)
  • GOP Divided as Cruz Snubs Trump (WSJ)
  • Trump Chooses War With Cruz at Convention Aimed at Unification (BBG)

What To Expect In Today's ECB Announcement: "Time To Send Another Dovish Signal"

Following the previously noted fireworks from Kuroda, who in a BBC interview said that there is "no possibility" of helicopter money (which however the WSJ quickly added was based on an interview conducted in mid-June which supposedly means there is possibility now) In under an hour the market will turn its attention to the ECB's latest statement, where as SocGen's Anatoli Annenkov writes, it is "time to send another dovish signal."

Yen Soars, Stocks Slide After Kuroda Says "No Need Or Possibility For Helicopter Money"

In a surprising rejection of Ben Bernanke, BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that there will be no helicopter money in Japan, amid increasing speculation over monetary and fiscal policy in the world’s third-largest economy. Given the current institutional setting, there is "no need and no possibility for helicopter money," Kuroda said in a BBC Radio 4 program that was broadcast Thursday. “At this moment, the Bank of Japan has three options with quantitative and qualitative easing with negative interest rates."

234 Billion-Dollar-Managing Fund Unclear Why Market Ignoring The Biggest Risk

"It's unclear why this hasn't been a significant driver of markets across the board... maybe we just haven't hit the threshold," exhorts $234 billion bond fund Invesco's Ray Yu. The head of the firm's macro research told Bloomberg that a general theme of political risks increasing or political risk premium has been prevailing for the last few years and we are now seeing tension between established political regimes and populist movements.

Sharia In Denmark

After the television documentary, "Sharia in Denmark", embarrassed Danish authorities by revealing how widespread the preaching of sharia is in mosques in Denmark; the Danish government, in May, concluded a political agreement about "initiatives directed against religious preachers who seek to undermine Danish laws and values and who support parallel legal systems."

George Soros Doubles Down: Accept 300k Refugees Costing $30Bn, Or Risk EU Collapse

Seemingly doubling down on his comments in April (following what he called Europe's "flawed asylum policy"), George Soros details his plan (over-riding the current "piecemeal approach") for rescuing Europe before it is too late. Simply put, the billionaire says the EU must take in hundreds of thousands of refugees a year, spend at least 30 billion euros (a minor sum, since he believes it can all be financed by debt and taxes) or Europe faces an "existential threat."

Potential Crisis Triggers Continue To Pile Up In 2016

We are a little over half way through 2016 and, at the current rate, it will be a miracle if the year finishes without outright catastrophe in half the nations of the world. Some might call these events “Black Swans,” some might call them completely engineered threats, others might call it all a simple “coincidence” or a tragedy of errors. We stand strictly by the position that most of the dangers we see today have been deliberately escalated, if not strategically implemented. Chaos is NOT the end game, it is only a tool by which the elites gain psychological leverage over the masses so that people willingly give up their rights to self determination and hand more power to the establishment.

"My Own People Hate Me!" - Black Brooklyn Cop Slams "False Narrative Of Black Lives Matter"

"I haven’t slept well in the past few nights. Heartbreak weighs me down, rage flows through my veins, and tears fills my eyes. I realized...  Black Lives do not matter to most black people. Only the lives that make the national news matter to them. Only the lives that are taken at the hands of cops or white people, matter. The other thousands of lives lost, the other black souls that I along with every cop, have seen taken at the hands of other blacks, do not matter."

Visualizing The Volatile History Of Crude Oil Markets

Crude oil is the world's most actively traded commodity (and today's chaos evidenced that perfectly), and oil-related markets are a staple for traders, hedgers, investors around the globe. The below infographic, put together by Aspect, covers the history of crude oil trading, while also highlighting the major events that have shaped the landscape of the oil market as we know it today.

Elon Musk Reveals His "Master Plan", Part Deux

Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

What The "Gambler's Fallacy" Tells Us About Where The Market Will Go next

The Dow has closed at a record high for nine days in a row, so it (and U.S. equities generally) MUST be ready for a pullback, right?  Not so fast.  Thinking that reversion to the mean happens swiftly and reliably is something called “The Gambler’s Fallacy”.  To borrow from an old capital markets aphorism, things can stay weird longer than you can stay solvent betting against them.

RNC Day 3: Make America First Again - Live Feed

Freshly-picked vice presidential nominee Mike Pence is the headliner of Wednesday’s third day of the Republican National Convention. As The Hill reports, with party business, Donald Trump’s official presidential nomination all settled, and any long-shot attempts to deny him the nomination in the rearview mirror, the third day should be a day of unity. With programming not starting until 7pmET, a number of Trump's former rivals and other notable conservatives will all focus on the day's theme: Make America First Again (which is ironically where Trump finds himself, leading Clinton by 1pt in the latest poll).