Bob Shiller moves beyond his normal fence-sitting perspective and goes full Marc Faber in this brief clip. Noting that his CAPE indicator of equity market valuation is flashing red (highest since 1929, 2000, and 2007), Shiller warns it is "when people jump into stocks even though they know valuations are high... that's a bubble," slamming CNBC's rosy perspective reflecting that this is the same as the dotcom rise. Notably he warns specifically "The US equity market is one of the highest in the world," and now is a good time to diversify away from it. Additionally Shiller warns of the slowing momentum in the housing market... warning that mean-reversion is likely with risk for further decline.
America’s grand strategy, its long-term blueprint for advancing national interests and countering major adversaries, is in total disarray. Top officials lurch from crisis to crisis, improvising strategies as they go, but rarely pursuing a consistent set of policies. Some blame this indecisiveness on a lack of resolve at the White House, but the real reason lies deeper. It lurks in a disagreement among foreign policy elites over whether Russia or China constitutes America’s principal great-power adversary.
1,000 Greek bank branches chanced a stampede in order to open their doors to the country's retirees on Wednesday. The scene was somewhat chaotic as pensioners formed long lines and the country’s elderly attempted to squeeze through the doors in order to access pension payments.
This is the question that astute investors are forced to ask themselves these days. No reasonable person believes that a system of ever-expanding debt can resolve painlessly. It simply cannot happen... not, at least, until 2+2 stops equaling four. But the international money system, while deeply interconnected, can implode in sections. In fact, it’s highly unlikely that it will crash as a single unit. So, if you have significant moneys to invest, you end up coming back to our question: Who will be the last to crash?
Last month we made the following admittedly stark prediction: "Ultimately, it appears America has become a country wherein everyone feels marginalized and/or aggrieved in one way or another. In the absence of a dramatic societal reboot, we fear social instability is likely here to stay." That assessment appears to have been quite accurate because over the course of just two weeks, six predominantly African American churches in the US have burned, with authorities suspecting arson in several of the blazes.
When it comes to Europe, Greece lost the blame game, and just like the Ukraine civil war last year, became an unwitting catalyst greenlighting Germany's concession to ECB QE, this time it may be Greece that launches the next step in the ECB's master plan: not just QE but more QE. This is precisely what Goldman's Franceso Garzarelli, co-head of macro and markets research, admitted earlier today in an interview on Bloomberg TV, when he said that the ECB "will have to go big" if the situation in Greece worsens and leads to wider peripheral bond yield spreads.
The oil price collapse of 2014-2015 began one year ago this month (Figure 1). The world crossed a boundary in which prices are not only lower now but will probably remain lower for some time. It represents a phase change like when water turns into ice: the composition is the same as before but the physical state and governing laws are different. The market must balance before things get better and prices improve. That can only happen if production falls and demand increases. That will take time. The most likely case is that oil prices will decrease in the second half of 2015 and that financial distress to all oil producers will increase. The hope and expectation that the worst is over will fade as the new reality of prolonged low oil prices is reluctantly accepted.
"The selling pressure so far has mainly come from stock-related borrowings via various unofficial channels where the leverage is much higher," BofAML says of the dramatic sell-off in Chinese equities. On Wednesday, the country's securities regulator moved to reassure markets as the unwind of hundreds of billions in leveraged trades threatens to collapse China's world-beating stock bubble.
Despite the fact that even the U.S. government itself has admitted that it was funding terrorists– directly and indirectly through Saudi Arabia, the suggestion was met with disbelief, ridicule, or either entirely ignored. Now, however, the United States government has admitted that it funds terrorists on the ground in Syria yet again, this time placing an individual dollar amount on the assistance provided.
"Sometimes I'll find scrap metal that I can sell, although if I see something that looks reasonably safe to eat, I'll take it"...
Over the weekend, the lines in Greece stretched along the street. Around the corner. Down the block. Lines to get cash. Lines to buy gas. Lines of people eager to get their hands on something of value. Food. Fuel. Cash. Pity the poor guy who was last in line... As more and more people turn to gold as a way to avoid standing in lines, the feds could ban it again. But when we close our eyes and try to peer into a world where gold is illegal, what we see is a world where we want it more than ever.
NSA Leak: "Washington Is Negotiating With Every Nation That Borders China... So As To 'Confront' Beijing"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/01/2015 - 17:06
"Houben insisted that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which is a U.S. initiative, appears to be designed to force future negotiations with China. Washington, he pointed out, is negotiating with every nation that borders China, asking for commitments that exceed those countries' administrative capacities, so as to "confront" Beijing."