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Either Oil Soars Back To $88, Or Energy Stocks Have To Tumble By Over 40%

The energy market in a nutshell: Either energy sector earnings have to surge by 70%, implying a near doubling of oil prices to $88, for the forward P/E multiple to return to normal, or the Energy sector prices have to crash from 549 today to 323, where it would trade down to its historic forward P/E multiple, suggesting a price drop of over 40%!



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Is The Swiss Franc Tumbling Due To Month-End SNB Window-Dressing?

Facing what is likely the largest loss in its history, it would seem The Swiss National Bank has undertaken what every good asset manager does nowadays - Month-End window-dressing. The Swiss Franc has collapsed in the last week or so (against the Dollar and Euro) as a mysteriously active seller of Swissy has managed levels up to smooth out the collapse in value of the SNB's balance sheet...



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Dutch National TV News Broadcast Interrupted By Gunman Demanding Airtime, Building Evacuated

Update: DUTCH NOS SHOWS FOOTAGE OF MAN ARRESTED WITH GUN IN STUDIO

ANP reports a person with gun disrupted Dutch evening news broadcast on live TV, demanding airtime...

*DUTCH BROADCASTER NOS BUILDING EVACUATED, ANP SAYS

UPDATE: The man has reportedly been 'over-powered and taken away'.



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Signs That The Economy Is Weakening

For months now we have been discussing that despite the "hopes" that this time is different, there is little chance that the U.S. can remain an island of economic prosperity in the sea of global deflation. The following series of charts all suggest that current hopes of surging economic growth in the U.S., over the next several quarters, will likely be met with disappointment.



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Putin Pivots Back: Russia Confirms Willingness To Provide Financial Aid To Greece

We suggested the Greek pivot from Europe to Russia was building previously, and now, we get confirmation from Russia's finance minister Anton Siluanov that the pivot could be mutual, who told CNBC in the interview below:

*RUSSIA WOULD WEIGH FINANCE FOR GREECE IF ASKED, SILUANOV: CNBC

With fire and brimstone spewing from Germany over the potential for Greece to veto any and everything, it seems Russia may just have stymied Europe's leverage over the newly democratic nation.



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Ukraine Is "Pressing" Obama For $3 Billion In Financial Aid

It would appear Gazprom has once again come knocking for payment - or else. As Bloomberg reports, Ukraine is pressing the Obama administration to provide political support, as much as $3b in financial aid and “non-lethal weapons,” with the goal of some progress by the end of February, Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko says. Of course, given Europe's agreement to further sanction Russia (asEU agrees more "punitive" steps are now possible) President Obama will be happy to lend Ukraine more American taxpayer money (despite the market's perception that Ukraine's default probability is over 80% - six year highs).



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Weekly Treasury Issuance Concludes With Weaker 7 Year Auction

After the delayed 5 Year auction took place 90 minutes ago, and priced strongly well through the When Issued, it was the turn of the last for this week auction of $29 billion in  7 Year paper, which just concluded and, somewhat surprisingly, was the worst of all auctions this week: not only did it tail modestly, pricing at 1.59%, a 0.4 bps tail wider than the 1.586% WI, but the Bid To Cover also was just modestly anove last month's 2.388, at 2.499, below the TTM average of 2.56. To be sure, a key factor for this superficial weakness was that the high yield of 1.59% was the lowest since May of 2013, as a result all those who have booked major profits in last month's auction pricing at 2.13 likely had far less of an incentive to get involved here.



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The Fed Has Boxed Itself Into A Corner

It appears markets are on the verge of learning just how damaging the unintended consequences will be from multiple years of extreme central bank promises now that the Fed has run out of the ammunition to keep the utopian market façade alive.  The structure of the ECB QE and the Greek situation make the backdrop considerably more troubling and difficult.



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Gold & Silver Extend Losses - Biggest Drop Since 2013

Because nothing says dump gold and silver like an aggressively escalating currency war...



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This Is Why The ECB's QE Will Work, According To The ECB

Earlier, we laid out a very reasonable explanation by none other than Europe's largest insurer AXA why the ECB's QE will fail. The ECB did not like ththis, so it decided to reply. This is how the ECB just "crushed" AXA's logic.

COEURE SAYS QE WILL WORK BECAUSE IT IS BIG

And scene.



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5 Year Auction Yield Tumbles To Lowest Since May 2013

As we previously noted, yesterday's 2 Year auction was an absolute blockbuster and accurately guessed the general direction of the bond market following yesterday's FOMC announcement. Moments ago, the US Treasury sold $35 billion in 5 Year paper, the first of two Note auctions, with the 7 Year due at 1pm today, and like yesterday it too was a very strong auction, with the High Yield tumbling from 1.739% last month, when most were assuming a rate hike is imminent to just 1.288%, stopping through the 1.295% When Issued, and suggesting that the relentless collateral shortage of the past 2 years simply refuses to go away. This was also the lowest closing yield of a 5 Year auction since May 2013.



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Marissa Mayer's (Value) Added: Yahoo Is Now Worth A Negative $1 Billion

Yahoo! shares are down meaningfully during the last two trading days due to the decline in BABA shares, even though Yahoo! announced this week the best-case scenario for its shareholders in the form of a tax-free spin-off of its entire equity position in BABA (see our note here). The trading has created an unusual dislocation, in our opinion. Assuming 1) that the BABA stake trades at a 10% discount to BABA as a SpinCo (and, therefore, is worth $33/YHOO share at current BABA levels), and 2) that its 35% equity stake in Yahoo! Japan is valued using a 44% discount to the current market value (i.e., a 38% tax rate plus a 10% liquidity value), then the core Yahoo! business is currently valued at nearly a negative enterprise value of $1bn.



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AXA Investment Managaer Explains Why The ECB's QE Has Already Failed Using "Widget Makers"

"People say, 'Sell government bonds and lend money to widget manufacturers.’ It doesn’t really work like that." Hayes says, adding that "Low yields don’t necessarily mean more lending to the real economy; time and confidence are key elements and last 6 years have shown QE can’t control those." In short: it hasn't even started and QE is already a complete failure. Good job central-planners.



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Crude Crumbles To Fresh Lows: $43 Handle

Yet again this morning's "bounce" to $45 was heralded as maybe possibly could be the stability that markets are looking for. And once again it was not as WTI makes fresh cycle lows to a $43 handle.. and once again, energy stocks plunged back to energy credit's reality...



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It Will Now Cost You 0.5% To Save Money In Denmark: Danish Central Bank Cuts Rates For Third Time In Two Weeks

When the Danish Central Bank cut rates precisely a week ago, going from NIRP to NIRPer, and pushing the deposit rate from -0.2% to -0.35%, the sense of desperation was already in the air: after all this was already the second rate cut by the Denmark's monetary authority in one week, all in the hope of preserving the peg to the DEK to the EUR. That sense of desperation just hit a fever pitch moments ago, when the Dutch central bank just went NIRPest, and cut rates across the board yet again, and made it even more costly to save money in the north European country, where the Deposit rate has just been cut from -0.35% to -0.5%!



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