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Guggenheim's Minerd: "Don't Fight The Treasury Bond Rally"

The consensus among market watchers last September was that, with U.S. interest rates so low and the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) about to withdraw stimulus, interest rates would trend higher. However, Guggenheim's Scott Minerd took a different view, writing in a commentary that “10-year rates may be heading back to 2.25 percent or lower.”



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Disgraced Mt Gox CEO Goes For Second Try With Web-Hosting Service (And No, Bitcoin Not Accepted)

Mt Gox may be long gone in the annals of bankruptcy, but its founder refuses to go gentle into that insolvent night. And, as CoinDesk reports, the disgraced former CEO of the one-time premier bitcoin trading platform has decided to give it a second try by launching new web hosting service called Forever.net and is registered under both Karpeles’ name and that of Tibanne, the parent company of Mt Gox.



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Iran State TV Airs Footage Of "Downed Israeli Drone"

As Iran continues to negotiate with world powers over its controversial (but purely for peaceful purposes, of course) nuclear program - with hard-liners demanding more concessions from the West - The Telegraph reports that a brief video, which aired on the Arabic-language Al-Alam TV, shows what the channel says are parts of an Israeli drone, scattered in an unidentified desert area. Text accompanying the footage says the drone was downed on Saturday and identifies it as a Hermes 450, a known Israeli model. The Iranian TV station also says the model is dubbed "Spy Goddess." However, as The Telegraph adds, there were no visible Israeli markings in the footage and Israel's military has declined comment on the matter... and Iran will sue Israel legally over its alleged violation of Iran's air space.



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Behold The Magic Of Accounting In First Half Earnings

Now that we can compile the first half data using the first two quarter data for both 2013 and 2014, we can conclusively state that if it weren't for the accounting magic behind non-GAAP, which includes such addbacks as tens of billions in litigation costs for the TBTBF utilities, pardon banks, pension addbacks, and not to mention hundreds of billions in restructuring addbacks resulting from the mass termination of hundreds of thousands of workers who miraculously fail to trickle through to the BLS' own "survey" data, things would hardly be as rosy as portrayed by the sellside. In fact, EPS growth in the first half was either 6.5%... or 0.2%. Depending on whether or not one believes in accounting magic.



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The New Misery Index

The Status Quo is desperate to mask the declining fortunes of those who earn income from work, and the Misery Index 2.0 strips away the phony facade of bogus unemployment and inflation numbers.



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12 Words Of Wisdom From Art Cashin For This Week

The avuncular Art Cashin, UBS' venerable man on the floor of the NYSE has seen it all... and is not impressed by the lack of volume. On what he notes is historically a very light trading week with a mild upward bias - note, the 1929 high was made the day after Labor Day - Cashin has 12 simple words for the exuberant trader this week...



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Dallas Fed Plunges, Biggest Miss In 16 Months As New Orders Collapse

With Philly Fed surging to record highs (along with stocks) but Services PMI dropping "as the recovery fades," it was left to Dallas Fed to split the buy good news or buy bad news dilemma this morning. It was bad news - from 2012 highs, Dallas Fed plunged to 7.1 (against 12.7 expectations) for the biggest miss in 16 months. Production fell, capital expenditure and employment subindices all fell and New Orders collapsed at the fastest rate since April 2013 (to 2014 lows). Even hope faded as the outlook index dropped.



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Here We Go Again: Ukraine Claims It Destroyed Two Tanks That Entered From Russia

It's Monday; which means its time to ramp up the war rhetoric once again as another weekend goes by without 'escalation'. Ukraine's military spokesman Lysenko, or as he is better known as Lie-senko for those who actually ask for some evidence of anything that he claims, says, suggests or otherwise talks about, is reporting,via Bloomberg, that:

  • UKRAINE SAYS TWO TANKS THAT ENTERED FROM RUSSIA WERE DESTROYED
  • LYSENKO SAYS UKRAINE CAPTURED CREW MEMBERS OF DESTROYED TANKS
  • UKRAINE SEIZED SOME VEHICLES THAT ENTERED FROM RUSSIA: LYSENKO
  • LYSENKO SAYS COLUMN OF REBEL VEHICLES DESTROYED IN KRASNODON
  • LYSENKO: UKRAINE INFLICTED SEVERE LOSSES ON REBELS IN KRASNODON

One wonders if the captured Russian crew had Langley, VA crew cuts? Unfortunately no one had their iPhone or camera-on-a-sticks to record the action as "proof." but we are sure that won't matter. Cure NATO's comments.  Now, how will the market react to this 'proven invasion'? Actually scratch that: more escalation is simply a catalyst for even more pent-up de-escalation in the future...



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New Home Sales Drop To Lowest Since March As Northeast Craters; Biggest Supply Since October 2011

Following last week's housing starts data, everyone was expecting a new home sales number that was even better than the consensus 430K. Instead, the July print of 412K was not only the 5th miss in the last 6 prints, but also the lowest number since March's 403K. The biggest drop took place in the Northeast where the sequential plunge was some 31% to just 18K new houses, and a whopping 44% from a year ago. There were declines in the Midwest which dropped 8.8% and in the West, which dropped 15.2%, while the only increase was recorded in the South which rose 8.1%. In fact, of all regions, only the South posted an increase from July 2013, surging by 33%, with new home sales in all other regions dropping.



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S&P 2,000 On Lack Of BTFATH Slack

Mission Accomplished... Retirement for all. A year ahead of Goldman's schedule, and with Treasury yields plumbing multi-month lows, US equities are opening this morning at new record-er highs as the S&P crosses the 'awesome' 2,000 Maginot Line for the first time (despite Yellen's hawkishness and Kuroda's playing down moar QQE leaving Draghi left to save the world). Can you feel the wealth effect surging through your income streams?

 



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Services PMI Drops Most In 6 Months, "Recovery Has Lost Some Momentum", Markit Says

US Services PMI dropped from multi-year highs to a still expanding 58.5, 3 month lows and the biggest MoM drop in 6 months. This is the 10th month of expansion in a row but employment growth continues to slow, as opposed to the priced-in escape velocity to the moon levels the market expects, even if this particular piece of bad news may just be the good news the "market" needs for that nudge above 2,000.



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Fort Lee Army Base On Lockdown - Active Shooter (Update: "All Clear" Given)

UPDATE: An “all clear” was issued shortly before 10 a.m., according to Fort Lee media relations. No other information at this time.



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Chart Of The Day: One Of Every Two Cyprus Loans Is In Default

Far be it for us to comment that anything like "fundamentals" matters anymore, or that, blasphemy, bad news is anything but good news, however what the Central Bank of Cyprus revealed today is a little troubling to say the least: as of the most recent, June, data, the total percentage of non-performing loans in the Cypriot banking system just rose to a mind-blowing 45%, up from 44.3% in May, and nearly double the 23.6% which was reported at March 2013 when the local banking system cratered, leading to the first European forced "bail-in" of (mostly Russian) depositors.



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"Current Ebola Outbreak Is Different," WHO Warns "Unprecedented" Number Of Medical Staff Infected

The outbreak of Ebola virus disease in west Africa is unprecedented in many ways, including the high proportion of doctors, nurses, and other health care workers who have been infected, warns the World Health Organization. Despite all precautions possible, more than 240 health care workers have developed the disease in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone, and more than 120 have died. Simply put, they conclude, the current outbreak is different. The loss of so many doctors and nurses has made it difficult for WHO to secure support from sufficient numbers of foreign medical staff. Even WHO admits, if doctors and nurses are getting infected, what chance does the general public have?



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Russia Prepares 2nd Humanitarian Convoy "Invasion"

Following the 'success' of the first humanitarian convoy, Bloomberg reports that Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said the nation plans to send a second convoy loaded with humanitarian aid to Ukraine. he U.S. and the European Union condemned the decision to send the first convoy of about 280 trucks, which the government in Kiev called an "invasion," and the US accused Russia of painting military vehicles white. This time will be different, according to Lavrov, as the government in Moscow is maneuvering to avoid the border standoff and uproar that marred its first convoy last week, adding “We’ll work on ensuring security guarantees from the side of the militias." Ironically, Lavrov also reminded a "disinformation"-prone media that Russia remains the only nation that continues to seek an MH17 probe as Ukraine has still not released Dnipropetrovsk air traffic control recordings.



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