Recession Imminent As Business Inventories-To-Sales At Cycle Highs
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 10:11
Just as Wholesale inventories-to-sales ratios flash recessionary signals so Business inventrories-to-sales point to US heading towards an inventory-dump recession. At 1.38x, the ratio is the highest since the last crisis as both sales and inventories fell Mom but year-over-year, sales tumble (-1.4% YoY) and inventories rise (1.6% YoY).
With Stocks in Freefall, Nasdaq Breaks... (Stocks Soar)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 09:56
Exchange says Nasdaq/Finra TRF -- a service dark pools and other off-exchange venues use to report stock trades -- is experiencing technical issue.
Saudi Arabia: A Weak Kingdom On Its Knees?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 09:53
The great Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - the long-time dictator of crude oil prices for the world - is struggling on all fronts. The Saudis are in a state of panic all around - from its OPEC status and dwindling reserves to its proxy wars that absolutely cannot turn into full-fledged wars and its growing friendlessness. At the end of the day, Saudi Arabia has overextended itself, and overestimated its prowess and it does not have the clout that it once had to be able to do this effectively.
World's Largest Miner Books Massive $7.2 Billion Writedown On US Shale "Assets"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 09:52
“Yeah well, considering you’ve got a book value of $20 billion and you haven’t reported an operating EBIT gain in the last two years, I think they’ve been lucky to get away with such a modest amount. I think they’ll be having the same discussions with their auditors in July."
Here It Comes: New York Fed President Says "If Economy Weakens Further, Would Consider Negative Rates"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 09:43Remember when the Fed's dots - less than a month ago - suggested there would be 4 rate hikes in 2016? Ah, the memories. Well, you can not only forget that (now that the market is estimating the next rate hike will come in October if ever), but it appears that the Fed will follow Kocherlakota's advice after all and not only cut rates (the possibility of a January rate cut now is 10%), but will pass go, and collect negative rates:
- DUDLEY: IF ECONOMY WEAKENED, WOULD CONSIDER NEGATIVE RATES
After today's atrocious, recessionary data, one can be certain that the Fed is furiously considering negative rates.
Gold & Silver Spike To Crucial Technical Levels
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 09:37
It has been a roller-coaster week for precious metals as the 50-day moving average remains key support for Gold and resistance for silver. This morning's chaos appears to have reignited the bid for safety once again...
Dow Down 500 Points From Bullard Bounce, 10Y Under 2.00%, Oil Below $30 As Rate-Hike Odds Collapse
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 09:29
Welcome To The Recession: Industrial Production Crashes Most In 8 Years
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 09:23
There comes a time when you just have to admit you were wrong... You were wrong. Industrial Production plunged 1.8% year-over-year - the fastest pace of collapse since May 2008 and a level that has never not produced a recession.
US Consumers Tap Out: Retail Sales End Weakest Year Since 2009 As Control Group Tumbles
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 08:43
American consumers curbed their spending in December, a lackluster finish to a year marked by slowing consumption despite a steadily improving labor market and months of cheap gasoline. But the biggest disappointment was the Retail Sales ex auto which was down 0.1% in December, below the 0.2% expected. Putting this miss in context, 66 out of 69 economists thought December retail sales ex autos would've been higher than actual. So much for those "gas savings" prompting Americans to spend, spend, spend...
Empire Fed Crashes At Fastest Pace "Since Lehman"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 08:42
Against hope-strewnm expectations of a bounce from -4.6 to -4, Empire Fed printed a disastrous -19.37 - the largest miss on record. New orders collapsed, shipments plunged, and employees and workweek continue to contract. Forward-looking employment expectations also plunged. The last time Empire Fed crashed to these levels was the immediate aftermath of the Lehman bankuptcy and the global financial crisis and the peak of the recession in 2001... but we are sure this is just transitory.
China Bank Lending Slows Dramatically, Confirming Concerns About Soaring Bad Loans
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 08:21
In the latest Chinese domestic financing report released by the PBOC last night, there were two divergent themes: on one hand bank loans grew far less than the expected 700Bn yuan; on the other hand total social financing soared to 1.82 trillion yuan, smashing forecasts of a 1.15 trillion increase, and the highest since June. As noted last night, this may have been the catalyst that spooked the markets, because as Bloomberg confirms, "the data shows companies are turning to alternative sources for credit given banks’ reluctance to lend."
Bullard Bounce Erased As Crude Crashes Back Below $30
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 08:13
Dow futures are now over 400 points off the Bullard Bounce highs as it appears The Fed's ability to convince the world it will save it once again is fading. Thanks to deflation-inspiring credit growth in China (yes, you read that right) and Kuroda's implied "we are done for now" comments, growth scares have spread across every asset class with crude and copper clubbed, bonds bid, and stocks tumbling...
Frontrunning: January 15
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 07:45- Crude sinks 4 percent as market braces for more Iranian oil (Reuters)
- Plunge in crude oil prices send stock futures sliding (Reuters)
- Oil Slides, Deepening Gloom in Stocks as Bond Buyers Celebrate (BBG)
- China Stocks Enter Bear Market, Erasing Gains From State Rescue (BBG)
- Friendly no more: Trump, Cruz erupt in bitter fight at Republican debate (Reuters)
- Dollar in Best Run Since July on Haven Bid Even as Fed Odds Fall (BBG)
Global Risk Off: China Reenters Bear Market, Oil Tumbles Under $30; Global Stocks, US Futures Gutted
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 06:57
Yesterday, when looking at the market's "Bullard 2.0" moment, which in many ways was a carbon copy of the market's response to Bullard's "QE4" comments from October 17, 2014 until just a few minutes before the market close when suddenly selling pressure appeared, we said that either the S&P would soar - as it did in 2014 - hitting all time highs just a few months later, or the "Fed is now shooting VWAP blanks." Judging by what has happened since, in what may come as a very unpleasant surprise to the "the market is very oversold" bulls, it appears to have been the latter.
Dow Dumps 250Pts, Nikkei Plunges 500Pts After China Credit Concerns, Kuroda Comment
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 - 01:07
It appears the world is ganging up on The Fed as following China's recent clear and present threat should the USD strengthen, BoJ's Kuroda warned that further QQE might threaten the bank's finances - implicitly demanding moar from Yellen because he knows he's out of bullets. Add to that the surge in China credit which merely extends the life of already zombified firms, thus spreading more deflationary stress to the world and stocks from China (SHCOMP -3%), Japan (NKY -500) to US (Dow -280 points from Bullard Bounce highs) are tumbling.
