IMF Slashes US GDP Forecast, Says Trump's Growth Target Is "Unrealistic"

The IMF has cut its US GDP forecast to 2.1% in 2017 from 2.3% projected in April and to 2.1% for 2018 from 2.5% previously, it said in a statement following its U.S. Article IV Consultation, and warned that the U.S. is unlikely to meet Trump’s target of 3% annual growth.

Case-Shiller Home Price Growth Slows As San Francisco Bubble Continues To Deflate

Amid a slew of mixed housing data (weak starts, permits; rebound in existing sales at record median prices), S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller reports that home price growth slowed to just 0.28% MoM (the weakest since Aug 2016), considerably worse than the average seasonal slowdown. Home prices fell from the prior month in Cleveland, Boston, San Francisco, Washington, and Tampa, Florida. Year-over-year gains also slowed to just 5.67%, missing expectations. 

Frontrunning: June 27

  • Stocks, dollar ease as central bank officials take center stage (Reuters)
  • Euro surges on Draghi comments, dollar slips (Reuters)
  • Yuan Surges in Afternoon Trade Amid Talk PBOC Supported Currency (BBG)
  • U.S. threatens Syria, says Assad is planning chemical weapons attack (Reuters)
  • Google Gets Record $2.7 Billion EU Fine for Skewing Searches (BBG)

Euro Surges, Bunds Tumble On Unexpectedly Hawkish Draghi Comments

The euro surged to its highest in two weeks after Mario Draghi, speaking at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, surprised markets who expected yet another dovish speech from the central banker, who instead signaled that stimulus tapering may be closer than the market anticipated and said factors weighing on inflation in the euro zone were "mainly temporary" and the central bank could look through them.

Draghi Doesn't See "Bubbles" - Let Me Show You Some

"Ask yourself a question: On the day the ECB stops buying, which of you would buy peripheral or European bonds at these prices? Clearly, the first sign of a bubble is the absence of demand in the secondary that offsets the impact of the ECB..."

Schaeffler Crashes After Unexpected Profit Warning, Drags European Autos

The recent sharp slowdown in US auto sales has claimed an unexpected victim: one of Germany's biggest auto suppliers, Schaeffler, which overnight slashed it earnings guidance for 2017, cutting its full year adjusted EBIT margin to 11%-12% from 12%-13% due to "substantially lower 2Q earnings" and "price pressures in the OEM business", and sending Schaeffler stock crashing as much as 14% after the Frankfurt open, its biggest decline since its October 2015 IPO.