Having closed below $50 for the first time in 3 weeks, WTI Crude extended its losses to 3 week lows after API reported crude inventories rose by a bigger than expected 4.8mm barrels (more than double the 2mm expectation). Cushing inventories drew down by the most since Feb 2014 (we suspect the spillage was the driver), Gasoline inventories built notably despite expectaions of a sizable draw, and distillates inventories drew down for the 5th straight week.
Alliances are transmission belts of war. So our Founding Fathers taught and the 20th century proved. A U.S. decision to terminate the Mutual Defense Treaty (with Philippines) would also send a wake-up call to every ally: America’s Cold War commitments are not forever. Your security is not more important to us than it is to you. As Donald Trump has been saying, we are starting to put America first again. On this, maybe even President Obama could find common ground.
Despite the constant puke of propaganda that a Trump presidency will bring hell on earth and crash stock markets (remember Brexit?), it appears market participants are much more concerned about a Clinton win...
"I’ve been trying to figure out what common trait binds Clinton supporters together. As far as I can tell, the most unifying characteristic is a willingness to bully in all its forms... I endorse Donald Trump for President of the United States because I oppose bullying in all its forms."
Could the markets rocket up to 2200, 2300 or 2400 as some analysts currently expect? It is quite possible given the ongoing interventions by global Central Banks. The reality, of course, is that while the markets could reward you with 250 points of upside, there is a risk of 600 points of downside just to retest the previous breakout of 2007 highs. Those are odds that Las Vegas would just love to give you.
As a result of this projected decline in EPS, Apple is expected to be the largest detractor to expected earnings growth for the S&P 500 Information Technology sector for Q3 2016. The blended earnings growth rate for the Information Technology sector is 4.2%. Excluding Apple, the blended earnings growth rate for the sector would improve to 10.9%.
A new Podesta email reveals a cozy relationship between Facebook COO, Sheryl Sandberg, and Podesta which is particularly disturbing in light of the fact that former Facebook news curators previously admitted the company "routinely suppressed conservative news."
In the US, easy central bank policy leads to greater corporate bond issuance and leverage, which in turn result in companies buying back their own equity - and to that extent QE is now residing on individual company balance sheets. In contrast, in Japan the BOJ simply buys Japanese equities directly. This difference is important
The effective duration on Bank of America’s global government bond index climbed to an all-time high of 8.23 in 2016, from 5 when it began in 1997. A one-percentage point increase in interest rates equates to about $2.1 trillion in losses for global investors, based on a Bloomberg Barclays sovereign-debt index.
Following hot on the heels of Austria's record 70 Year bond issue, there was some concern if today's 2Y Treasury auction would not fall flat on its face when the results printed at 1pm. However, it appears that just as there was demand for duration, so there was interest in "safety" paper, and as a result, the just concluded 2Y auction priced at 0.855%, 0.1bps inside the When Issued, which was also the highest yield on 2Y paper since May.
When the Affordable Care Act open enrollment period begins next week customers will see some changes, including fewer choices and higher prices. In Pennsylvania, the number of insurers in the marketplace has gone from 13 to eight. But the worst fate is set to befall the city that famously booed Santa Claus, Philadelphia, where CBS reports that just two insurers are left and premiums are expected to rise 53%.
Let's face it - lots of stuff no longer works very well. As costs rise, globalization supplies defective, pirated parts, and fewer people care due to burn-out, more and more of everyday life falls into the category of "no longer works very well." Every one of those things that no longer works well offers an opportunity for a self-motivated person to fix someone else's problem...
The latest evidence of the unprecedented scramble for yield and duration came yesterday when it was revealed that Austria would join the rest of the Eurozone in selling ultra-long dated debt in the form of 70 Year bonds. It didn't take long to find willing buyers, and moments ago Bloomberg reported that this offering has just priced to yield 53 bps more than that on the February 2047 security.