• Steve H. Hanke
    02/11/2016 - 16:08
    The burgeoning literature contains a great deal of hype, which validates the 95% Rule: 95% of what is written about economics and finance is either wrong or irrelevant.

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The End Is Nigh For Europe As Officials Mull 2 Year Schengen "Suspension"

Like a stock halted limit down on the Shenzhen, there's a very good chance that once suspended, Schengen will never again be open for "trading".


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Goldman's Take: "Additional Hikes Remain FOMC Baseline"

"BOTTOM LINE: Chair Yellen’s prepared remarks to the House Financial Services Committee contained little new information on the monetary policy outlook, and were roughly in line with comments made by Vice Chair Fischer and New York Fed President Dudley over the past couple weeks. She continued to highlight the FOMC’s expectation for “gradual” increases in the federal funds rate."


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Janet Yellen's "Humphrey-Hawkins" Testimony: Economic Strains, Tightening Pains, & No Stock Gains - Live Feed

Fed Chair Yellen will be presenting her semi-annual monetary policy testimony - sometimes called the "Humphrey-Hawkins" testimony - today (House Financial Services Committee) and tomorrow (Senate Banking Committee). Her prepared remarks offered little new information over the January FOMC Statement but the Q&A will likely be the most market-moving as politicians likely demand she "get back to work" for the good of the nation's shareholders.


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Fed Reveals Which "Developments To Financial Stability" It Is Most Worried About

Broad equity indexes have declined significantly since July 2015, and forward price-to-earnings ratios have fallen to a level closer to their averages of the past three decades.
Leverage [among speculative-grade and unrated firms] firms has risen to historical highs, especially among those in the oil industry, a development that points to somewhat elevated risks of distress for some business borrowers.


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Intraday Trading Indicator Showing Shades Of 2000, 2007 Tops

"Smart Money" flow is shifting in a disturbingly similar pattern to those seen at the prior 2 cyclical tops...


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Hilsenrath: Yellen's Comments Have A "Downbeat Undertone"

The only question that matters today: is a "downbeat undertone", aka bad news, good news for stocks once again, and will the market relapse to its old "bad news is great news" regime, or will it take advantage of today's brief European bank euphoria to sell the rally as it has throughout all of 2016?


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WTI Crude Plunges Back Below $28 After Yellen Disappoints

WTI Crude futures are tumbling as Yellen's prepared remarks offered little for the doves and played down growth due to "financial strains." Back in the red after some overnight hope from Europe, WTI is back to a $27 handle once again...


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Yellen Hints At Slowing Economy, Dropping Stocks, Accommodative Fed, But Does Not Go "Full Dove"

With world markets begging for moar, Janet Yellen's prepared Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony was a disappointment:

  • *YELLEN: FED EXPECTS ECONOMY TO WARRANT ONLY GRADUAL RATE RISES (everything is fine)
  • *YELLEN: JOB, WAGE GAINS SHOULD SUPPORT INCOMES AND SPENDING (everything is awesome)
  • *FED REPORT: LEVERAGE RISKS IN FINANCIAL SECTOR `REMAIN LOW' (so don't worry about banks)
  • *YELLEN: FINANCIAL STRAINS COULD WEIGH ON OUTLOOK IF PERSISTENT (so, there's chance)

The bottom line this is simply a rerhash of the Jan FOMC Statement and does not offer enouigh dovishness for the market.


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Profit At World's Largest Shipping Company Plunges On Collapsing Global Trade, Sinking Crude Prices

Back in November, Nils Smedegaard Andersen, CEO of Maersk, the world’s largest shipping company, gave the world a reality check when it comes to global growth and trade. “The world’s economy is growing at a slower pace than the International Monetary Fund and other large forecasters are predicting” Andersen told Bloomberg. On Wednesday, we got a look at how the challenging environment affected Maersk's bottom line in 2015. The picture wasn't pretty.


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Frontrunning: February 10

  • Global Stocks Bounce Back After Market Selloff; Asia Stumbles (WSJ)
  • New Hampshire Bucks the Establishment to Back Trump and Sanders (BBG)
  • Trump shows his U.S. presidential bid is no mere publicity stunt (Reuters)
  • Clinton Is Outdone by a Competitor Once Considered a Fringe Candidate (WSJ)
  • Deutsche Bank Jumps as Lender Said to Consider Bond Buyback (BBG)
  • Bank Executives Leading Surge of Insider Buying Amid Stock Rout (BBG)

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European Banks Soar On Rumor ECB May Monetize Bank Stocks; Japan Crash Continues

While algos patiently await the only thing that matters for US stocks today which is Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress. expected to be released at 8:30 am (and previewed here), the rest of the world this morning is a hot mess of schizophrenic highs and lows.


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"Investors Have Completely Lost Faith In Deutsche Bank" A Top 10 Shareholder Admits

After a day of "rock solid" Lehman-isms, emergency bond buyback plans, and a stock price still unable to close green, Deutsche Bank is on the ropes (despite CNBC proclaiming that "it doesn't feel like a Lehman moment.") However, as dawn breaks across the motherland, something more insidious is breaking for Germany's largest bank. Deutsche faces an uphill task rescuing its stock from record lows, especially, as Reuters reports, a top 10 shareholder exclaims "investors have completely lost faith in the bank," and a fast recovery from this crisis was unlikely.


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Doland Trump, Bernie Sanders Win New Hampshire Primary - Live Feed

Literally one second after the polls closed at 8:00 pm, virtually all the media outlets, including AP, NBC and CNN, covering the NH primary called the outcome:

Republican winner: Donald Trump
Democrat winner: Bernie Sanders


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Is The American Dream Dead?

The American dream is not a thing in physical terms but an idea that lives or dies with certain beliefs in society. Can it die? Yes it can if those beliefs are purged from the conscience of society. This is what Jefferson meant by watering the tree of liberty with the blood of patriots from time to time.


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This Is What Central Bank Failure Looks Like (Part 2)

Following The BoJ's utter collapse from omnipotence to impotence, it seems the rest of the world is losing faith in Central Banks "control," as nothing says The Fed knows nothing like the collapse of Fed credibility to... nothing...


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