Just as we warned previously, the bloodshed was only just beginning at Valeant (and others). Having put all its peers to shame in terms of price hikes, VRX shareholders appear anxious that the 'no-brainer' may just become the poster-boy example to be made of by an anxious-to-show-some-action Congress...
"... standard monetary policy rules might justify a continuation of the current zero-rate policy for much longer, well into 2016 or potentially even beyond. In this context, it is interesting that the reduced market-implied probability of liftoff in 2015 after Friday’s weak employment report mostly translated into a higher probability of liftoff not in 2016 but in 2017!"
On the heels of China's, Japan's, Brazil's, and Europe's Services PMI weakness (and US Manufacturing PMI and ISM weakness), Markit's US Services PMI printed 55.1 (missing exectations of 55.6) and dropping to its lowest since June. This catch-down to Manufacturing weakness suggests the mid-year bounce is well and truly dead as even Markit admits, "it remains unclear as to whether growth will weaken further as we move into Q4." Additionally, after its exuberant spike to 10 year highs in July, ISM Services continued to drop back (to 56.9 missing expectations) with the biggest collapse in New Orders since Lehman.
The demise of the petrodollar continues unabated in the face of depressed crude, regional proxy wars, and a budget bleed, as the Saudis burn through the SAMA piggy bank in a desperate attempt to keep the ship afloat.
Bulls Beware: Days After Calling For Bear Market, Gartman Declares The "Bearish Run In Global Stocks Is Over"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/05/2015 - 08:07
" we are this morning making the bold… indeed, for us, the very bold … statement that the bearish run in global stocks is over; that the bearish run to the downside in US shares is over and that we are henceforth to err bullishly of shares, diametrically opposed to the position we have had for the past several months wherein we erred steadily… almost relentlessly… bearishly.... we are now finishing the trifecta as we turn bullish of stocks."
The mainstream is finally waking up to the future of the American Dream: downward mobility for all but the top 10% of households. A recent Atlantic article fleshed out the zeitgeist with survey data that suggests the Great Middle Class/Nouveau Proletariat is also waking up to a future of downward mobility: The Downsizing of the American Dream: People used to believe they would someday move on up in the world. Now they’re more concerned with just holding on to what they have.
RANSQUAWK WEEK AHEAD - 5th October: BoJ, RBA and BoE are all set to announce their latest rate decision this week, while the FOMC will release the...Submitted by RANSquawk Video on 10/05/2015 - 07:53
· BoJ, RBA and BoE are all set to announce their latest rate decision this week, while the FOMC will release the minutes from their September meeting
· Alcoa unofficially kick off earning season on Wall St., with analysts forecasting the first Y/Y EPS decline since 2009
The oil patch is full of conundra currently... crude price declines globally to near 2009 lows but supertanker day-rates (demand) soaring over $100,000 for the first time since 2008. However, today's news that Saudi Arabia is slashing its price (to a $3.20 discount to the bechmark with the largest price cut since 2012) suggests in an effort to shore up tumbling reserves and capture more market share amid dwindling demand (and excess supply) - a price war has begun led by US ally Saudi Arabia... and China is hording crude at these low-low prices.
- MOAR: Euro-Area Growth Seen Slowing in Sign More Stimulus May Be Ahead (BBG)
- MOAR: Japan's wage growth slows in August, keeping pressure on BOJ for more stimulus (Reuters)
- MOAR: Stocks, Copper, Emerging Markets Jump as Fed Delay on Rates Seen (BBG)
- And yet... Central Banks Lose Bond-Market Credibility as Woes Mount (BBG)
- World Bank cuts Asia growth forecast on China and US rates (BBC)
Following Friday's disastrous payrolls report, which confirmed all the pre-recessionary economic data and signaled that instead of approaching "lift-off" and decoupling from the rest of the world, the US economy is following the emerging markets into a slowdown in what may be the first global, synchronized recession since 2008, the market saw its biggest intraday surge since 2011 and the sharpest short covering squeeze in history, we are happy to announce that the "market" is now solidly back in "bad news is good news" mode.
When "whatever it takes" is not enough... Despite Draghi's promises and EU leaders' exuberance, European Investor Confidence tumbled to its lowest since January as the Q€ bounce has now well and truly died. While volatility has picked up over the last month and reassuring tones have been uttered by every central banker in the world, it is the real economy that appears to be weighing on confidence as Eurozone Composite PMI prints at 53.6 - its lowest since February.
Former US army colonel and Chief of Staff for Colin Powell, Lawrence Wilkerson unleashed a most prescient speech on the demise of the United States Empire. Wilkerson describes the path of empires in decline, shows how the US is following the classic trajectory, and needs to make a transition to being one of many powers and focus more on strategies of international cooperation... "History tells us we’re probably finished... The rest of of the world is awakening to the fact that the United States is 1) strategically inept and 2) not the power it used to be. And that the trend is to increase that."