The Bond Bloodbath Is Back: US, Chinese Yields Soaring

Following the worst month for risk-parity funds since 2015, we suspect month-end redemptions are driving both stocks and bonds (4x levered on average) lower out of the gate in November. Extending yesterday's losses, US Treasury yields are explding higher once again (long-end underperforming) following China's bond market's biggest yield spike in years overnight.

OPEC Deal Sends Crude Curve Into Backwardation For First Time Since 2014

Following OPEC's agreement to cut prodiction for the first time in 8 years, front-end prices have spiked (above $50) but perhaps more notable is the unusual 'stability' in the crude curve around $54 from July 2017 to Nov 2019. For the first time since October 2014, the belly of the crude curve is in backwardation (far-months cheaper than near-months).

"Shell-Shocked" Democrat Donors Concerned At Rudderless DNC: "I May Well Be Done With Political Giving Entirely"

"The feeling I get from big donors out here in California is that... they’re shell-shocked," warns investor Marc Nathanson, who spent big in 2016, adding that he has no interest in participating in the party’s rebuilding efforts. As The Hill reports, many Democratic donors still feel burned by the party’s 2016 election losses and what they see as dysfunction in the DNC. "They’re tired," said one DNC official fingering the blame elsewhere, "they’re upset about the election, and there was significant trauma surrounding the Russians."

Another False Flag? "Destructive Iranian Hackers" Allegedly "Wreak Havoc" With Saudi Computer Systems

In what may soon as the latest middle-east diplomatic scandal, Bloomberg reports that Iranian state-sponsored hackers have conducted a "series of destructive attacks on Saudi Arabia over the last two weeks, erasing data and wreaking havoc in the computer banks of the agency running the country’s airports and hitting five additional targets." Additionally, “several” government agencies were also targeted in attacks that came from outside the Kingdom.

Initial Jobless Claims Soar Most In 2 Years Following Trump Election

In the two weeks since Donald Trump was elected, initial jobless claims have soared by over 35,000 (or over 15%) to 5-month highs. This is the biggest two-week rise since December 2014 and is entirely against the exuberant narrative being spun by US equity markets. One can't help but wonder what the sudden 'odd' collapse to 43 yeasr lows right into the election was all about...

Frontrunning: December 1

  • Oil hits six-week high after OPEC deal, sterling jumps (Reuters), Oil Holds Gains After OPEC Deal (WSJ), Hangover Awaits as OPEC Celebrates (BBG)
  • Opec agreement: the winners and the losers (FT)
  • Russia’s Pledge to OPEC Will Mean ‘Herding Cats’ to Deliver Cuts (BBG)
  • Mnuchin Made Millions From Financial Crisis (WSJ); Trump reverses stance by turning to Goldman alumni for key roles (FT)
  • Treasury Pick Says ‘No Absolute Tax Cut’ for Wealthy (WSJ)

Global Bonds Lose $1.7 Trillion In November, Worst Monthly Meltdown On Record

Less than two months after Ray Dalio warned about a potential wipe out in the bond market, he has been proven right: the November surge in global yields has resulted in the worst monthly loss in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index, which lost 4% in November, a record drop, and equivalent to $.17 trillion in losses. The index’s market value fell $2.8 trillion over past two months.

Starting Today, Feds Can Hack Millions Of Devices With One Warrant

On Thursday, December 1, a vital Supreme Court order is set to go into effect that dramatically expands the surveillance power of federal agents. The impending alteration to Rule 41 of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure softens the legal requirements for obtaining search and seizure warrants that grant the government remote access to individual’s computers and phones.

Keynesian Nirvana: Japanese Sinkhole That Was Repaired In Record Time, Sinks Again

In the world of Krugmanites, there is only one thing better for the economy than digging a hole and filling it back in.. and that is doing it twice. Just days after repairing a giant sinkhole, in the Japanese city of Fukuoka, in record time (and proudly telling the world), the sinkhole has collapsed once again (offering hope for Q4 GDP).

From Bush To Trump: Culture, Economy, & War - The Pillars Of The New World Order

The Trump victory fits into this decadent scenario. Are we facing a true revolutionary who intends to rid forever global hegemonic aims, or is he simply a well-thought-out pause, created by the elites to revitalize the economy, arrest the internal discontent in the country, and rebuild the army to resume the march toward global hegemony in 2020?