Analyst Lays Out China's "Doomsday" Scenario

According to Autonomous analyst Charlene Chu, bad debt in China’s financial system will reach as much as $7.6 trillion by the end of this year: an estimate which implies a staggering bad-debt ratio of 34%, orders of magnitude above the official number, and nothing short of a "doomsday scenario" for China's financial system if accurate.

The Single Biggest Bullish Catalyst For Oil

One of the key objectives for OPEC is to bring down inventories, a goal that has been elusive this year. But if the oil futures curve is anything to go by, the oil market is showing signs of tightening.

Defiant Trump Doubles Down, Defends "Beautiful" Confederate Statues

"Sad to see the history and culture of our great country being ripped apart with the removal of our beautiful statues and monuments. You can't change history, but you can learn from it. Robert E Lee, Stonewall Jackson - who's next, Washington, Jefferson? So foolish!"

White House Confirms "Cohn Intends To Remain In Position"

The White House has issued a statement confirming that "Gary Cohn intends to remain in position as NEC Director." The only problem is - the market is ignoring it. Presumably, the market now believes it is just a matter of time...

"A Volatile Autumn": Buckled Up For Structured Criticality

Structured criticality is a property of complex systems in which small events may trigger larger events due to subtle interdependencies between elements. This often gives rise to a form of stratified chaos where the general behavior of the system can be modeled on one scale while smaller- and larger-scale behaviors remain unpredictable.

US Manufacturing Drops In July As Auto Production Slumps

Industrial Production, leaked early, rose just 0.2% MoM in July, missing expectations and slowing from last month's 0.4% gain. Manufacturing production actually shrank (-0.1%) hurt by a 3.6% plunge in motor vehicle production.

China Blames U.S. For Collapse In "Military Trust"

"...wrong actions on the Taiwan issue, the United States deploying the THAAD system around China, U.S. ships and aircraft's activities in the South China Sea, the United States close-in surveillance in the sea and air near China have had a large, negative influence on bilateral military ties and mutual trust,"

Frontrunning: August 17

  • Trump policy doubts, weak inflation to weigh on Wall Street (Reuters)
  • Trump Remarks on Violent Rally Rattle Aides, Risk Agenda (WSJ)
  • Trump blasts Republican senators over Charlottesville criticism (Reuters)
  • Trump's crisis spurs talk of White House departures (Reuters)
  • Apple denounces neo-Nazis as Spotify bans ‘white power’ tracks (Guardian)

The Great Disconnect: Markets Vs. Economy

"While the Fed keeps promising with each passing year the economy will come roaring back to life, the reality has been that all the stimulus and financial support can’t put the broken financial transmission system back together again. Eventually, the current disconnect between the economy and the markets will merge. My bet is that such a convergence is not likely to be a pleasant one."

Wal-Mart Slides, Free Cash Flow Fails To Cover Dividends And Buybacks

Despite reporting strong earnings which beat on both the top and bottom line in today's most anticipated earnings report, Walmart stock is down 3%, sliding to the lowest level since late July after it provided full year EPS guidance whose midpoint was below Wall Street expectations.