• Marc To Market
    08/29/2015 - 10:18
    Dollar recovered from the exaggerated panic at the start of last week.  Outlook is still constructive.  Here is an overview of the technical condition of currencies, bonds, oil , and S&...

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For Albert Edwards This Is The One Definitive Measure That "We Are Now In A Bear Market"

Over the years, Socgen's Albert Edwards has repeatedly expressed his skepticism of both the economy and the market (the longest US equity "bull market" since 1945) both propped up by generous central banks injecting liquidity by the tens of trillions (at this point nobody really knows the number now that the 'black box' that is China has entered the global "plunge protection" game) and yet never did he have as "conclusive" a call as he does today. As the following note reveals, when looking at one particular indicator, Edwards is now convinced: 'we are now in a bear market."



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Silver Is Soaring



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A Nation Divided - Northeast Happiest In 8 Years As MidWest Comfort Collapses

Presented with little comment, aside to ask why is Bloomberg "Consumer Comfort" for The NorthEast region at its highest in 8 years, when The Midwest region's "Comfort" is plunging to its lowest since Nove 2014?



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S&P 500 Surges 5.9% - Biggest 2-Day Spike Since Fed Announced QE1

The 5.9% rise in the last 2 days is the largest for the S&P 500 since March 11th 2009 - when The Fed announced QE1...



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Kansas City Fed Survey Misses For 8th Straight Month - Flashes Recessionary Signal

The last two times the Kansas City Fed survey was this low, the US was in recession.The KC Fed survey has missed expected for eight straight months, falling to -9 in August from -7 (missing the -4 estimate). Across the board, underlying components were ugly with Shipments collapsing, Order backlogs echoing earlier surveys in demise, New Orders tumbling, and Prices received crashing.



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An Unprecedented Shift in The Oil-Dollar Correlation Regime

WTI Crude just surged from $38.50 to over $41 and at the same time the USD Index has been surging. In fact, the correlation regime between these two seemingly negatively correlated assets has entirely shifted since last week's FOMC Statement.



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Bears Are "Covering" Everywhere, Especially Here

In a well-worn tradition, where it takes one cover to offset a cover, here is Bloomberg Businessweek's latest, which shows that bears were were "covering" everywhere in the market yesterday (and continue to do so today), and certainly on the front page of the latest issue of Bloomberg's publication.



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Pending Home Sales Miss, NAR Says Stock Plunge Is Good For Housing Affordability

The biggest surprise in today's NAR release came from the following Larry Yun statement: "Uncertainty in the equity markets — even if the Fed raises short-term rates in September — could stabilize long-term mortgage rates and preserve affordability for buyers." So with China, Larry Summer and the IMF now calling for a rate hike, the NAR - of all entities - is suddenly quite happy to see the recent market rout continue, which would keep rates lower and promote "affordability." Guess nobody tell Larry that China has now started dumping bonds.



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China Exclaims "We Were Wronged" - Demands Fed Delay Rate Hike, Reiterates Blame For Market Rout

"China's exchange rate reform had nothing to do with the global stock market volatility, it was mainly due to the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy move," Yao said. "We were wronged."



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If You Doubted The Central Bankers' Brave New World, You Were Right

Ben Bernanke and his cohort central bankers built a Brave New World (SOMA, SOMA, SOMA!) where central bank money printing would boost stock prices and the wealth created would trickle down to workers and cause a booming economy. If you doubted that, you are now seeing proof that maybe this world was a little bit of Lewis Carroll’s Alice in Wonderland along with the Aldous Huxley.



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Crash? What Crash? Dow Goes Green On Week

So does this mean a September rate hike is back on the table?



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Russia Refuses To Participate In Ukraine Debt Restructuring

War-torn Ukraine has reportedly reached a restructuring deal with a group of creditors headed by Franklin Templeton, according to the country’s finance minister Natalie Jaresko. The terms of the agreement call for a 20% writedown and a reprofiling that includes a maturity extension of four years and an across-the-board 7.75% coupon. Vladimir Putin isn't interested.



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Morning Has Broken: A Deep Dive Into The Trading Patterns Of The American Retail Invetor

Americans associate the morning with “Time to trade equities”. They hear news – in the case of the last few days, bad news from overseas – first thing in the morning. By the time the market opens, they have made their decisions and entered their orders. About half as many will check in around the close to see how things turned out, but for many the next piece of market news won’t hit their mental “Screen” until 20 hours or so later. 



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September Rate Hike Back On Table: Q2 GDP Soars In Revision From 2.3% To 3.7% Driven By Record Inventory Build

Well, if the Fed is truly data-dependent, September is now squarely back on the table following the first revision of (double seasonally-adjusted) Q2 GDP data which soared from 2.3% to a whopping 3.7%, blowing out the Wall Street consensus estimate of 3.2%, and printing above the highest Wall Street forecast (the 3.6% from JPM). The reason for the surge was simple: from an inventory build of $124 in the first GDP estimate, the BEA now sees a total of $136.2 billion in inventory build in Q2. This is an all time record, and a number which suggests the upcoming inventory liquidation will be truly epic, not to mention recessionary.



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