Putin Warns Upsetting Global Strategic Balance "Could Lead To Global Catastrophe", Wants To Be Friends With Trump

“We hope to unite our forces with the United States in the fight against the real threat, not the fictional one – international terrorism,” he said. The president also emphasized the need “to strengthen non-proliferation regimes,” noting that “attempts to upset the strategic balance are extremely dangerous and could lead to a global catastrophe.”

US Manufacturing Surges To 20-Month Highs Despite Employment, Export Orders Drop

Extending October's bounce, Markit's US Manufacturing PMI for November jumped to its highest since March 2015 with "signs of buoyant business conditions in the US manufacturing sector." ISM Manufacturing also rose to its highest since Feb 2015 and while overall orders rose, we note that the USD strength may be evident as export orders dropped and employment slowed.

The Details Behind Trump's Deal With Carrier Revealed

In the end, UTC agreed to retain approximately 800 manufacturing jobs at the Indiana plant that had been slated to move to Mexico, as well as another 300 engineering and headquarters jobs. In return, the company will get roughly $700,000 a year for a period of years in state tax incentives.

The Bond Bloodbath Is Back: US, Chinese Yields Soaring

Following the worst month for risk-parity funds since 2015, we suspect month-end redemptions are driving both stocks and bonds (4x levered on average) lower out of the gate in November. Extending yesterday's losses, US Treasury yields are explding higher once again (long-end underperforming) following China's bond market's biggest yield spike in years overnight.

OPEC Deal Sends Crude Curve Into Backwardation For First Time Since 2014

Following OPEC's agreement to cut prodiction for the first time in 8 years, front-end prices have spiked (above $50) but perhaps more notable is the unusual 'stability' in the crude curve around $54 from July 2017 to Nov 2019. For the first time since October 2014, the belly of the crude curve is in backwardation (far-months cheaper than near-months).

"Shell-Shocked" Democrat Donors Concerned At Rudderless DNC: "I May Well Be Done With Political Giving Entirely"

"The feeling I get from big donors out here in California is that... they’re shell-shocked," warns investor Marc Nathanson, who spent big in 2016, adding that he has no interest in participating in the party’s rebuilding efforts. As The Hill reports, many Democratic donors still feel burned by the party’s 2016 election losses and what they see as dysfunction in the DNC. "They’re tired," said one DNC official fingering the blame elsewhere, "they’re upset about the election, and there was significant trauma surrounding the Russians."

Another False Flag? "Destructive Iranian Hackers" Allegedly "Wreak Havoc" With Saudi Computer Systems

In what may soon as the latest middle-east diplomatic scandal, Bloomberg reports that Iranian state-sponsored hackers have conducted a "series of destructive attacks on Saudi Arabia over the last two weeks, erasing data and wreaking havoc in the computer banks of the agency running the country’s airports and hitting five additional targets." Additionally, “several” government agencies were also targeted in attacks that came from outside the Kingdom.

Initial Jobless Claims Soar Most In 2 Years Following Trump Election

In the two weeks since Donald Trump was elected, initial jobless claims have soared by over 35,000 (or over 15%) to 5-month highs. This is the biggest two-week rise since December 2014 and is entirely against the exuberant narrative being spun by US equity markets. One can't help but wonder what the sudden 'odd' collapse to 43 yeasr lows right into the election was all about...

Frontrunning: December 1

  • Oil hits six-week high after OPEC deal, sterling jumps (Reuters), Oil Holds Gains After OPEC Deal (WSJ), Hangover Awaits as OPEC Celebrates (BBG)
  • Opec agreement: the winners and the losers (FT)
  • Russia’s Pledge to OPEC Will Mean ‘Herding Cats’ to Deliver Cuts (BBG)
  • Mnuchin Made Millions From Financial Crisis (WSJ); Trump reverses stance by turning to Goldman alumni for key roles (FT)
  • Treasury Pick Says ‘No Absolute Tax Cut’ for Wealthy (WSJ)

Global Bonds Lose $1.7 Trillion In November, Worst Monthly Meltdown On Record

Less than two months after Ray Dalio warned about a potential wipe out in the bond market, he has been proven right: the November surge in global yields has resulted in the worst monthly loss in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index, which lost 4% in November, a record drop, and equivalent to $.17 trillion in losses. The index’s market value fell $2.8 trillion over past two months.