The Global Commodity Cycle: Where Are We Now

"In commodity cycles, demand leads and supply reacts, with a lag. And the factor which facilitates this process is price. 2017 looks to be providing another classic example of this simple commodity rule."

Brazilian Real Tumbles After Senate Rejects Landmark Labor Reform Bill

Brazil's landmark labor reform bill, intended to relax the country's restrictive labor laws and a main plank of embattled President Michel Temer's efforts to bolster investment and pull the economy out of its worst recession ever and widely seen as the country's second most important reform agenda after the Pension bill, was unexpectedly rejected by a special committee in Brazil's senate, with 10 votes against it, 9 in favor and 1 abstention. 

The Middle East Is Blowing Up

Every day brings another scary headline from the Middle East — which makes it easy to treat them as background noise rather than a clear and present danger. But the latest batch is reminiscent of the Balkans circa 1914, which means it may be time to tune back in...

WTI Plunges To 7-Month Lows - Enters Bear Market As HY Bonds Crater

WTI Crude has entered a bear market (down over 20% from its highs) amid concerns OPEC-led output cuts won’t succeed in rebalancing the market (and not helped by the fact that Libya is pumping the most crude in 4 years). Furthermore, HY Bonds are getting hit led by a spike in HY Energy risk...

In Warning To Wall Street, Jefferies Fixed Income Revenue Tumbles 33%

Jefferies second quarter earnings were a warning for the rest of Wall Street: with fixed income revenues tumbling 33% in Q2 due to "lower volumes and lower volatility", suggesting that alongside the collapse of the yield curve, the coming quarter could be rather brutal for US banks.