The mainstream is finally waking up to the future of the American Dream: downward mobility for all but the top 10% of households. A recent Atlantic article fleshed out the zeitgeist with survey data that suggests the Great Middle Class/Nouveau Proletariat is also waking up to a future of downward mobility: The Downsizing of the American Dream: People used to believe they would someday move on up in the world. Now they’re more concerned with just holding on to what they have.
RANSQUAWK WEEK AHEAD - 5th October: BoJ, RBA and BoE are all set to announce their latest rate decision this week, while the FOMC will release the...Submitted by RANSquawk Video on 10/05/2015 - 07:53
· BoJ, RBA and BoE are all set to announce their latest rate decision this week, while the FOMC will release the minutes from their September meeting
· Alcoa unofficially kick off earning season on Wall St., with analysts forecasting the first Y/Y EPS decline since 2009
The oil patch is full of conundra currently... crude price declines globally to near 2009 lows but supertanker day-rates (demand) soaring over $100,000 for the first time since 2008. However, today's news that Saudi Arabia is slashing its price (to a $3.20 discount to the bechmark with the largest price cut since 2012) suggests in an effort to shore up tumbling reserves and capture more market share amid dwindling demand (and excess supply) - a price war has begun led by US ally Saudi Arabia... and China is hording crude at these low-low prices.
- MOAR: Euro-Area Growth Seen Slowing in Sign More Stimulus May Be Ahead (BBG)
- MOAR: Japan's wage growth slows in August, keeping pressure on BOJ for more stimulus (Reuters)
- MOAR: Stocks, Copper, Emerging Markets Jump as Fed Delay on Rates Seen (BBG)
- And yet... Central Banks Lose Bond-Market Credibility as Woes Mount (BBG)
- World Bank cuts Asia growth forecast on China and US rates (BBC)
Following Friday's disastrous payrolls report, which confirmed all the pre-recessionary economic data and signaled that instead of approaching "lift-off" and decoupling from the rest of the world, the US economy is following the emerging markets into a slowdown in what may be the first global, synchronized recession since 2008, the market saw its biggest intraday surge since 2011 and the sharpest short covering squeeze in history, we are happy to announce that the "market" is now solidly back in "bad news is good news" mode.
When "whatever it takes" is not enough... Despite Draghi's promises and EU leaders' exuberance, European Investor Confidence tumbled to its lowest since January as the Q€ bounce has now well and truly died. While volatility has picked up over the last month and reassuring tones have been uttered by every central banker in the world, it is the real economy that appears to be weighing on confidence as Eurozone Composite PMI prints at 53.6 - its lowest since February.
Former US army colonel and Chief of Staff for Colin Powell, Lawrence Wilkerson unleashed a most prescient speech on the demise of the United States Empire. Wilkerson describes the path of empires in decline, shows how the US is following the classic trajectory, and needs to make a transition to being one of many powers and focus more on strategies of international cooperation... "History tells us we’re probably finished... The rest of of the world is awakening to the fact that the United States is 1) strategically inept and 2) not the power it used to be. And that the trend is to increase that."
"The reason the markets aren't going lower is people are holding and hoping." Incidentally, there is a reason why hope is not a strategy: in the end, it always fails.
"The impotence of monetary policy in boosting growth and staving off deflationary pressures has become painfully apparent, especially when it is acting in isolation and when a large number of countries are resorting to the same limited playbook."
Q. Should somebody have gone to jail.
Bernanke: Yeah, yeah I think so. It would have been my preference to have more investigation of individual actions as obviously everything that went wrong, or was illegal, was done by some individial not by an abstract firm.
"The Russian intervention is a massive setback for those states backing the opposition, particularly within the region – Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey – and is likely to elicit a strong response in terms of a counter-escalation."
Never have markets carried so much risk. And never have markets been as vulnerable to an abrupt change in perceptions with regard to central banker competence, effectiveness and capabilities. At the minimum, global markets will function poorly, but risk is now high for a disorderly – Party Crashing - "run" on financial markets, as faith in central banking begins to wane.
"A bunker-busting BETAB-500 air bomb dropped from a Sukhoi Su-34 bomber near Raqqa has eliminated the command post of one of the terror groups, together with an underground storage facility for explosives and munitions. Panic and desertion have begun. 600 fighters have left positions."
Chinese President Xi Jinping recently confirmed the practice of moving the People’s Bank of China’s reserve assets to other entities in China: “some assets in foreign exchanges were transferred from the central bank to domestic banks, enterprises and individuals” This might explain where some of China’s gold hoard, that many suspect they posses but have not reported as reserves, may be located.