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Is The Correction Over?

While the markets are currently suggesting that the "dip" is over, there are several immediately prevailing risks that could catch unwitting investors.



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Ferguson Curfew Cancelled As National Guard Arrives; Holder Demands To "Remove The Damn Tanks"

The Missouri Governor Jay Nixon gave "no heads up" to the White House before deploying The National Guard and has now made another abrupt decision as The National Guard closes in on Ferguson:

*NIXON'S CALL TO HALT CURFEW TONIGHT MADE IN E-MAILED STATEMENT

We presume when there are military tanks rolling through the streets of a town, there is no need for the actual implementation of a curfew... This once again rubs the administration's nose in it as AG Holder's comments from last week hang in the air: "get those damned tanks out of there."



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Ferguson Right Now: The National Guard Is Deploying - Live Feed

The National Guard is on its way to Ferguson, Missouri... this comes as 'official' sources have stated that Missouri Governor Nixon gave "no heads up" to the White House before deploying The National Guard...

 



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Pope Francis Gets Involved In Geopolitics, "Endorses Use Of Force" Against ISIS Jihadists

Pope Francis, who until now has had an aura of pacifism "above all else", if now and then bashing the occasional banker for creating record wealth disparity around the globe, just shattered his reputation of a man of peace at all costs, and moments ago endorsed the use of force in Iraq to stop Islamic militants from attacking religious minorities. He added that ays the international community — and not just one country — should decide how to intervene. He did not clarify just which superpower the last statement was a direct jab against.



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Mapping The Militarization Of America's Police Force Since 2006

A few months ago we warned about the SWATification of America, mapping the surplus military gear by state.

Having  already documented America's conversation to a turnkey totalitarian banana republic (confirmed over a year later by Edward Snowden), we note the following six charts from The NY Times that show the spread of military-style equipment - including aircraft, vehicles, body armor, grenade launchers and assault rifles - since the creation of the free Defense Department program in the 1990s.



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Bloomberg "Surrealistic" Headline Of The Day



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What's So Special About A 17x PE Multiple?

Is there something particularly notable about a 17x trailing PE multiple on the S&P 500? According to Deustche's David Bianco, there is especially during mid to late cycle expansions, i.e., after three (or much more in this case with the S&P 500 now repoting 5+ years of EPS growth) years of rising earnings. In fact, as DB calculates, the only two periods of a PE over 17 after 3 years from the last EPS decline are 1965-66 and 1996-98 (Figure 2) below. And right now. It should be self-explanatory that both of those historic periods ended with a sharp equity correction.



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Dozens Of Flash-Crashes - Including AAPL - As BATS Breaks

It was just Friday when a pithy Bob Pisani noted that investor confidence in markets is up because there have been no market malfunctions recently... he spoke too soon. As Nanex's Eric Hunsader reports, an apparent malfunction at BATS-Y has caused dozens of flash crashes... including in AAPL.



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UK Home Prices Have Biggest August Plunge On Record As Russian Sanctions Sink In

London home prices fell in August by 5.9%, the plunge the biggest since Dec 2007 (and 2nd biggest drop on record). Since western sanctions on Russian oligarchs hit 3 months ago, home prices have fallen in London (especially the highest-end regions, such as Kensington -7%) and now that weakness is accelerating and spreading across the entire UK. As Rightmove reports, the 2.9% drop in UK home prices is the worst August on record. How long before the UK pulls back on its 'support' for US sanctions? Costs, indeed?



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Disinformation War Escalates: Ukraine, Rebels Accuse Each Other Of Attacking Refugee Convoy

Eager to move on from Friday's disinformation fiasco, Ukrainian military spokesmen said the bus convoy had been in an area of fierce fighting between government forces and the separatists. As Reuters reports, it had come under fire from rebel Grad and mortar launchers, they said, causing an unknown number of casualties.  And in keeping with the endless flow of BS emanating from east Ukraine, where civilians are merely collateral damage to an epic information war, and just to confuse everyone if not the algos which today are stricly in "de-escalation" mode, the separatists promptly accused Ukraine of the attack, when a rebel leader denied his forces had the military capability to conduct such an attack, and accused Kiev forces of regularly attacking the area and also using Russian-made Grad missiles.



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Chinese Troops 'Invade' 25Km Into India, "This Is Chinese Territory, Go Back"

Fifteen months ago we reported China's stealth invasion of India's Ladakh region, and now, as PTI reports, Chinese troops are reported to have entered deep into Indian territory in Burtse area in Ladakh where they had pitched their tents last year. Indian troops spotted Chinese personnel 25 to 30 km from the perceived Line of Actual Control (LAC). PLA personnel carried flags reading "this is Chinese territory, go back" in their hands and they refused to move after being confronted by India's quick response team.



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Is The SEC Asking These Hedge Funds Why They All Rushed Into Allergan Last Quarter?

It remains to be seen if frontrunning the general public on collusive, material, non-public information that a strategic would be about to announce a bid for Allergan is indeed "completely lawful", however we do have a question: now that the SEC is formally investigating Ackman for what may be a massive frontrunning scam, is it also looking at all the other hedge funds which reported brand new stakes (some of which also entirely in the form of calls) in Allergan in the second quarter?



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Homebuilder Sentiment Jumps to Highest Since January As Midwest Hits Record High

Despite almost record-low mortgage apps and plunging sales, homebuilders remain as optimistic as ever that no matter what is ahead - stagnant wages, rising rates, or FNMA's outlook deteriorating - everything will be fine in housing.NAHB sentiment printed 55, beating 53 expectations on the back of an explosion of hope in the Midwest to record highs (as South and West tumbled). The 'outlook' - the real hope - surged to its highest in a year - just short of this cycle's highs in hope.



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NATO Admits Putin Holds "Short-Term Cards", But "Won't Be Around Forever"

Following a summit in Brussels, a senior NATO diplomat proudly proclaimed that 'allies' have pledged more spending and will beef up its presence in Eastern Europe. However, likely to the chagrin of President Obama (and the West's narrative), he let slip some uncomfortable truths:

  • *NATO DIPLOMAT SAYS PUTIN HOLDS TACTIAL SHORT-TERM CARDS (hhmm, ok)
  • *NATO DIPLOMAT SAYS LONG-TERM GEOPOLITICAL TRENDS FAVOR THE WEST (phew...)
  • *NATO DIPLOMAT SAYS PUTIN WON'T BE AROUND FOREVER (threat or warning?)

So, all the west has to do is be patient? Wait out Putin? We suspect that 'strategy' may get accelerated at some point.



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The Bottom Line To Investors From Tax Inversions: No Above Average Returns

While it remains to be seen if Obama can put an end to what has been the hottest M&A trend in 2014, namely engaging in tax redomiciling "inversion" deals, it is clear that the C-suite is delighted to continue pursuing deals which minimize the cash outflows to the US Treasury, with some 52 redomiciling deals done since 1983, 22 taking place since 2009 and another 10 being finalized and many more in the works. But what is the track record of tax inversions when it comes to the bottom line, namely investor returns.  According to a Reuters calculation, "companies that have done such "inversion" deals have failed to produce above-average returns for investors."



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