Treasuries Extend Selloff Following Poor, Tailing 5 Year Auction

After yesterday's stronger than expected 2Year auction, there was speculation that with the repo market normalizing overnight, that the omni-present short squeeze on auction days would be absent today, and predictably, moments ago the Treasury sold $34 billion in 5 Year paper in a rather poor, tailing auction, which priced at 1.936%, tailing the When Issued 1.931% by 0.6bps.

The Market Is Not The Economy, But Earnings Are (Closer)

"... share prices, in general, operating on the far end of the probability spectrum; where everything has to go just right in the near future, including whatever may come out of Trump “stimulus” and economic policies. EPS, however, suggests, as the calculations for GDP potential, that that would be a very low probability outcome, including a high risk of “something” going wrong all over again just like it was in 2014."

The 5 Key Things To Watch For In Today's Fed Minutes

Despite desperate attempts to jawbone March rate-hike-odds higher, because as Master said last night "we don't want to surprise the markets", Fed Funds Futures imply just a 36% chance (down from a week ago). That suggests, if The Fed is serious about March, that today's minutes must be spun towards that narrative. Here are the five key areas to watch for...

Le Pen's Chief Of Staff, Bodyguard Detained By Police

French police have detained two of Marine Le Pen's closest aides: her bodyguard and chief of staff,  for questioning over alleged misuse of European Union funds to pay parliamentary assistants, Le Pen's lawyer said.

Could Trump's Immigration Ban Cause Another Housing Crash?

"If Trump gets the immigration plan he wants, the housing market will get hit harder than any other. If millions of people get deported and more people don’t come in to take their place, then you’ll have downward pressure on home prices, especially in urban areas."

Dazed & Confused... Treasury Buying Versus Asset Valuations?

"I'm dazed & confused...economists and the consensus all acknowledge 2001 and 2007 were low interest rate, debt driven financial and economic bubbles.  However, somehow today's even lower interest rate environment resulting in an additional $9.5 trillion in equity valuation from the last bubble peak...this one is legit and isn't a bubble???"

Iran Warns US: "The Enemy Will Receive A Strong Slap In The Face"

"The message of these exercises ... for world arrogance is not to do anything stupid," said General Mohammad Pakpour, head of the Guards’ ground forces. "The enemy should not be mistaken in its assessments, and it will receive a strong slap in the face if it does make such a mistake."

Bank of America Clients Sell Stocks For The First Time Since The US Election

According to the latest weekly BofA client data, "smart money" investors have finally tempered their euphoric optimism, and last week during which the S&P 500 climbed to another new high, BofAML clients took advantage of the surge in "greater fools" and turned net sellers of US equities for the first time since the week prior to the US election in early November.

Hands Of Kim Jong Nam's Killers Were "Coated With Mystery Poison"

As the Malaysian police pieces together the clues of last week's dramatic assassination of Kim Jong-Un's brother, in a press conference this morning officials said that the two women suspected in the fatal poisoning attack were trained to coat their hands with toxic chemicals, then wipe them on his face,

Frontrunning: February 22

  • Euro Slips, Bonds Gain as Investors Turn Cautious (BBG)
  • Fed Minutes Could Offer Hints on Timing of Rate Rises, Balance Sheet Moves (WSJ)
  • Trump's new security advisor differs from him on Russia, other key issues (Reuters)
  • Tillerson, Kelly Head to Mexico for Talks Amid Diplomatic Tensions (WSJ)
  • Why Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Could Sink U.S. Home Prices (BBG)

Blow Out In German 2Y Bonds Sends Yield Crashing To Record Low As Political Fears Grow

The ongoing scramble for German safety away from French political uncertainty, has led to yet another blow out day for German 2 Year Schatz, with the yield tumbling to a fresh all time low of -0.92%, as Eurozone breakup concerns have spread from the bond market, and are now pressuring the euro sending the EURUSD below 1.05 for the first time in over a month.