It may come as a surprise to some that as the S&P500 has remained in a tight trading range over the past month, investors continued to withdraw substantial amounts of cash. According to the latest EPFR weekly data, global equities saw another $3.9bn in outflows, which brings the number of outflows to 5 in the past 6 weeks. Of note here is that while Europe has now suffered a record record 37 straight weeks of outflows, the US has been comparably pressured, with outflows in 6 of the past 7 weeks.
Asian stocks and S&P futures fall modestly and European shares are little changed as traders digested the surprising reticence from yesterday's ECB meeting. The dollar jumped to 7 month highs, pressuring EM currencies and pushing the euro to its weakest level since March and below the Brexit lows, after Mario Draghi shut down talk of tapering, while the Yuan dropped to the lowest since 2010.
Just when it seemed we could not get any more email leak excitement, here comes Wikileaks with what it claims is the first batch of emails obtained from a secret address used by president Barack Obama (email@example.com).
With the mainstream media lambasting Trump for daring to suggest the election process is rigged - despite hard evidence - this is the hack that proved America’s elections can be stolen using a few lines of computer code.
There’s no question Baghdad needs to take back Mosul from ISIS/ISIL/Daesh. It could not do it before. In theory, the time is now. The real question is the conflicting motivations of the large “who’s who” doing it...
For the 10th day of the last 11, onshore yuan has weakened against the dollar. A 0.35% devaluation of the Yuan fix - the most since August - catching down to offshore Yuan's weakness, suggests (for now) PBOC policy is 'allowing' the drop and perhaps sending yet another 'turmoil-induing' message to The Fed as their hawkishness grows.
David Rosenberg has a modest proposal in mind for the US economy: he says only a massive, multi-trillion stimulus package which includes helicopter money attached to a $2 trillion perpetual bond, massive infrastructure spending and measures to tackle the $1 trillion student debt load, has any hope of kickstarting the US economy.
Regrettably for Americans, Stein is right about the Democratic nominee. Those concerned about the future of America with someone as erratic as Donald Trump in the Oval Office are justified in their worry, but to believe Hillary is somehow a “better option” is not only a naive assumption — but a reckless one. A vote for Hillary is undoubtedly a conscious vote to go war with a nuclear-armed superpower.
There are 5 events the administration would be most likely to utilize to reach the end state of Martial Law. All of these can occur simultaneously, successively, or individually in any combination at any time...
As Trump and Clinton get set to "roast" each other at tonight's Al Smith dinner, one has to wonder whether the atmosphere will strike the same lighthearted tone of previous years or if there will be some fireworks.
Investors "have been conditioned to believe, over and over again, that central banks can shield them," but, as Allianz' Mohamed El-Erian warns "the probabilities are now starting to tip in the likelihood of a bad outcome." Simply put, El-Erian explains that financial markets have "decoupled" from the economic problems of the world leaving "enormous risk in public markets because that’s the one that central banks have distorted to the greatest extent."
The problem with being a contrarian is the determination of where in a market cycle the “herd mentality” is operating. The collective wisdom of market participants is generally “right” during the middle of a market advance but “wrong” at market peaks and troughs. There are plenty of warning signals that suggest that investors should be getting more cautious with portfolio allocations. However, the “herd” is still supporting asset prices at current levels based primarily on the “fear” of missing out on further advances.