Chartapalooza: The Likelihood Of Unlikely Events

With unprecedented government largesse in all major financial centers around the globe, the throughput to job growth has been abysmal. Also there have been consistently poor results in key emerging economies, as we highlight in this issue of Abraham Gulkowitz's The PunchLine chart extravaganza. Mixed signals from Asia, in particular, have caught world markets off guard. New Chinese trade, inflation and industrial production datasets all undershot general expectations. Disappointing export and import figures were a particular concern. Another major concern is the likely timing of a gradual change in the Fed’s easing posture. It is inevitable. What is worrisome is that there may have been a significant reliance – a dependency - on easy money that has built up in world financial markets. Any reversal in this historic experiment in government policy leads us into the unknown.

Guest Post: The Wisest Thing Ever Said By A Socialist...

"First they ignore you. Then they ridicule you. And then they attack you and want to burn you. And then they build monuments to you."

Guest Post: The Endgame Of State/Local Government Pensions

There is no way the pensions and benefits promised in an era of financialized abundance can be paid once the wheels of financialization fall off. During the past 30 years of financialized abundance, the benefits and pensions promised to public employees were increased substantially. Public unions are a powerful political force in many states, and in eras of rising tax revenues, it's an easy political decision to increase public employee benefits and pension payouts. The rising stock and bond markets generated huge profits for the public-employee pension funds, enabling them to grow without taxpayer contributions. Alas, the 8+% annual growth rate of the boom era is now structurally unrealistic. The New Normal is bond yields of 2% or 3% at best, and equities markets that are increasingly at risk of significant sell-offs. The endgame of promises made in an era of illusory, financialized abundance will be hurried along by a collapse in the equities and bond markets.

Spain's Debt Surges To Record High At Accelerating Pace

Somewhere deep down inside the European Union's leaders must know how foolish they are with their constant proclamations that the worst of the crisis is over and that growth will return any moment now. For now, the realists in the market have to be content with hard data, and as AP reports, Spain's central bank reports the troubled nation's debt jumped to a record 88.2% of GDP in Q1 2013. The year-over-year rise is also the fastest on record - so no green shoot there as the bank notes it expects the debt burden to rise to 90.5% of GDP by the end of 2013 (but may revise that forecast - up). The raw numbers are awesome. Spain's debt was EUR 922.8 billion at the end of March - up 19.1% from a year earlier and with unemployment at 27.2% and a fourth year of recession, the more-than-doubling of debt-to-GDP in the last five years suggests the 'OMT call' may be getting closer. The stagflationary slump in Europe (inflation rising faster than expected as growth lags) continues with nearly 20 million people out of work across the region.

How A Congress-Sanctioned Tax Credit Rescued Q1 Earnings

A 25-year-old research-and-development tax credit that was extended by Congress - following its expiration at the end of 2011 - lifted profits for many firms in the S&P 500 by over 10%. While top-line revenue growth was a damp squib, earnings grew a more robust 6.7% thanks, as the WSJ notes, in large part to this tax-credit's 'accounting' gains. This stock-market-saving tax-gimmick, however, is only for "big corporate America," since, "small firms aren't profitable enough to get the credit." Looking ahead, however, the unusual benefit from extension of the tax credit won't help corporate profits for the rest of this year as it is set to expire at the end of this year (having cost the taxpayer over $7 billion).

Detroit To Default Today, "Shared-Sacrifice" To Follow

And so the next casualty of the inevitable municipal collapse appears, which is, as expected, that one-time symbol of all that was right with a (once upon a time) manufacturing America, having since been replaced with the anti-symbol of all that is broken: Detroit. DETROIT BEGINS MORATORIUM ON ALL DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS FOR UNSECURED FUNDED DEBT; DETROIT TO DEFAULT ON CERTIFICATES OF PARTICIPATION DUE TODAY. And, true to from in the New Normal America, where the "fairness doctrine" rules supreme under Big Brother's watchful eye, the premise of the upcoming glorious recovery is a well-known one: "the shared-sacrifice." To wit: "The City currently faces approximately $17 billion in total liabilities. Detroit is insolvent and cannot meet its financial obligations without a significant restructuring.  Mr. Orr's plan provides for shared sacrifice among all creditor groups – from Wall Street and Main Street consistent with their legal rights – in order to return Detroit to a sustainable financial foundation and to permit much-needed reinvestment in the City." The punchline: "Detroit's road to recovery begins today"... By defaulting.