• Pivotfarm
    05/21/2015 - 16:48
    Janet Yellen at the Federal Reserve believes that the partying on Wall Street and in the financial institutions may “lead to trouble”.
  • EconMatters
    05/21/2015 - 13:17
    The 2nd tallest building in the world, Shanghai Tower, will open to the public mid 2015 during a time when China's own economy is going through the darkest period in recent years.     

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The Untied State Of America

"Yes, The Fed is feeding inequality; but it has to keep rates low for the good of the economy" - Robert Reich



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Are Stocks & Bonds Due For A "Generational" 75% Crash?

From the point of view of history, a reversion to generational lows is inevitable, and a valuation level around 50% of GDP for stocks is a fair target. This implies a 75% decline in both stocks and bonds within the next decade, if not sooner.


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Dogbert Explains What CEOs Do



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YHOO Tumbles After BABA Spinoff Faces IRS Uncertainty

Around 1537ET YHOO shares began a flash-crash-like free-fall with ascending volume on an accelerating plunge in price. BABA did not snap until 1544ET when it cracked lower and the arbs desparately tried to keep the two firms tied together somehow. Initial chatter was import tariff news from China (which may have explained the huge divergence between the two) but soon after Bloomberg reported that the U.S. Internal Revenue Service is considering a rule change that might complicate YHOO efforts to exit its BAB stake 'efficiently'.



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American Politics Explained In One Chart

Presented with no comment (but a big shrug of the shoulders)...



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Apply Now: Saudi Arabia Is Hiring 8 Executioners

If you happen to be particularly adept at wielding a sword and believe strongly that stiff penalties for crime play an important role in deterring future misdeeds, you might consider joining Saudi Arabia’s Ministry Of Civil Service as a “Perpetrator Of Retribution.”



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The Looming Russell Rebalance – What You Need To Know

With over $4 trillion invested in Russell index-linked products, this year’s rebalance combined with the “Will they/won’t they” Fed rate increase debate could make for an eventful start to summer.



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The Real Reason Draghi Is Front-Loading Q€ (In 1 'Disappointing' Chart)

When US Macro data started to crumble after QE3 ended last year, and with it US equities, The Fed unleashed Jim Bullard to suggest that QE4 was possible if things deteriorated... and in that moment, everything broke. The last few months have seen expectations of a European recovery dashed as macro data has disappointed greatly - now weaker on the year. So what is Draghi to do? Easy - Fed playbook: unleash Benoit Coeure to suggest moar QE sooner and maintain the illusion of future success in stock prices (even as data collapses)...



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How To Spot Groupthink Among Economists

  • A tendency to examine too few alternatives; A lack of critical assessment of each other’s ideas;
  • A high degree of selectivity in information gathering; A lack of contingency plans;
  • Poor decisions are often rationalised; The group has an illusion of invulnerability and shared morality;
  • True feelings and beliefs are suppressed; An illusion of unanimity is maintained;
  • Mind guards (essentially information sentinels) may be appointed to protect the group from negative information.


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Will Treasuries Make It 10 Out Of 10 Yield Rises As 1330ET Looms?

For the last 9 days in a row, no matter what is occurring in the markets, US Treasuries have begun to sell-off at 1330ET... Some have suggested this points to funding issues being a driver of recent weakness, with the USD up by the most in 2 days since oct 2011, we shall see if the need to sell down USTs is there for the 10th day in a row...



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Why You Should Vote For Nobody



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Recession Check: Updating The Indicators

The largest problem with the data sets below is that they are all subject to large historical revisions. This is why the NBER is ALWAYS well after the fact in pronouncing the start and end of recessions in the U.S. economy. Given the ongoing interventions from the Federal Reserve and the current administration, it is likely that many of the statistics, and seasonal adjustment metrics, have been skewed in recent years. In the quarters ahead it is likely that we could see rather sharp adjustments to historical data which may suggest the economy has been far weaker than headline statistics have suggested.



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State Department To Release Hillary Emails... In January 2016!

The good news: A federal judge on Tuesday ordered the U.S. State Department to produce a schedule for the release of emails that Hillary Clinton sent and received while she was secretary of state, a legal move that could complicate her presidential campaign.

The other news: The State Department is proposing a deadline of January 2016 to complete its review...

You just can't make this up!



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What The Fed's Computer Model Predicts About The Future Of The US Economy

It could go up, or it could go down.



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