"We don’t expect the current situation to end well for investors who insist on taking larger investment exposures than they’re actually willing to hold, with discipline, through a period of severe market losses. From present valuation extremes, a 40-55% market loss would represent a fairly run-of-the-mill resolution to the current market cycle... By the completion of the current cycle, I expect over $10 trillion of what investors count as paper “wealth” in U.S. equities to disappear without a trace."
It’s difficult to make a case for a great holiday sales season or robust third quarter GDP based on the Cass Freight Index which shows shipments sank 0.4% for the month and are down 3.1% from shipments a year ago. As Cass warns, the "glimmer of ‘less bad’ hope in August" was "false hope."
"We’ve been in the eye of the storm since then... and it’s a huge hurricane with a big eye... they’ve papered it over with trillion of currency units... Now, as we speak, we’re moving into the trailing edge and it’s going to be much worse, much longer lasting, and much different than the unpleasantness that we experienced back in 2008..."
"Has the bull market in government bonds finally ended... A change in the wind is being felt as governments listen to the central banks’ recent call for fiscal, rather than monetary policy, to do the heavy policy lifting from hereon in. Is the long bull market in bonds now over."
"Mrs. Clinton, like Nixon in 1972, may not get a honeymoon no matter how big her win. The debate we aren’t having in the campaign, we will continue not to have: how to foster a modern state that doesn’t metastasize corruption, cronyism, elites helping themselves. "
The daily dump continues. In the now traditional daily routine, one which forces the Clinton campaign to resort to ever more stark sexual scandals involving Trump to provide a media distraction, moments ago Wikileaks released yet another 1,803 emails in Part 12 of its ongoing Podesta Email dump, which brings the total number of released emails to 18,953.
The curious case of how a 34-year-old high-yield trader at Goldman managed to make $100mm in profits in just 6 months while somehow maintaining compliance with Dodd-Frank regulations...“It goes against everything we’ve been seeing the last three years."
Oil held gains overnight following API's surprise crude inventory draw, DOE data surprised even more with a massive 5.247mm draw (2.1mm build exp). Cushing saw the biggest draw in 6 months but we note that Gasoline inventories rose 2.469mm barrels - the biggest build since Feb. Production rose very modestly but hovers around the 8.5mm b/d level. WTI is spiking and RBOB lagging after the print.
Someone within the White House should probably explain why the vote-rigging, convicted felon, Robert Creamer visited the White House over 200 times during the Obama administration, including 45 visits with the President himself.
Two days before the Obama administration formally accused the Russian government of hacking Democrats, NYTimes reports that a man identified as a "Russian hacker suspected of pursuing targets in the United States" was arrested in the Czech Republic. While the arrest was made on Oct 5th, officials stated that "we postponed the announcement for tactical reasons," which makes one wonder whether this is the debate-day-distraction Hillary needs?
As Hillary's polling numbers remain inexplicably resilient in the face of numerous scandals, Trump has no choice to but lay it all on the line in tonight's debate in which we fully expect him to come out swinging from the start.
"In our retirement funds here at TGL we bought back into the same non-US steel manufacturing concern that we’d owned previously as it broke out to the upside... we are aggressively long of gold/EUR and we own a leveraged gold mining ETF. We have balanced those positions with bearish equity derivatives sufficient to leave us marginally… very marginally… net long of equities."
Over the weekend, thousands of protesters across multiple countries condemned impending trade deals promoted by governments and their corporate partners. Though the protests received little coverage from mainstream media, they stretched from Paris to Warsaw.
Following August's disappointing dump in Housing Starts (and Permits), September data is an utter disaster. Against expectations of a 2.9% rise, Housing Starts plunged 9.0% in September to 1.047mm - the weakest since March 2015. Year-over-year, Starts have crashed almost 12% - the most since April 2011, driven by a collapse in multi-family housing. Permits offered some hope for the future (although current starts suggests historical permits were a weak indicator).
In an act that some have said reeks of symbolism, the tour bus of the Clinton campaign was caught dumping human waste literally on the street, or as some less politically correct commentators have dubbed the incident, "the Hillary campaign caught shitting on main street America."