10-Trillion-Dollar Bye-Bye - The Calm Before The Storm

"We don’t expect the current situation to end well for investors who insist on taking larger investment exposures than they’re actually willing to hold, with discipline, through a period of severe market losses. From present valuation extremes, a 40-55% market loss would represent a fairly run-of-the-mill resolution to the current market cycle... By the completion of the current cycle, I expect over $10 trillion of what investors count as paper “wealth” in U.S. equities to disappear without a trace."

Cass Freight Index Takes Another Dive Killing August's "False Hope"

It’s difficult to make a case for a great holiday sales season or robust third quarter GDP based on the Cass Freight Index which shows shipments sank 0.4% for the month and are down 3.1% from shipments a year ago. As Cass warns, the "glimmer of ‘less bad’ hope in August" was "false hope."

"There Will Be Panic"

"We’ve been in the eye of the storm since then... and it’s a huge hurricane with a big eye... they’ve papered it over with trillion of currency units... Now, as we speak, we’re moving into the trailing edge and it’s going to be much worse, much longer lasting, and much different than the unpleasantness that we experienced back in 2008..."

German City Mayor Warns Government Of "Massive Crime Problems...Blacks Are In Charge Of The Town"

As German chancellor Angela Merkel begins to wake up to what her 'open borders' policy has unleashed on the citizenry, none other than the mayor of the popular Bavarian resort of Garmisch-Partenkirchen has penned a letter to the regional government begging them to tackle the "massive problems" posed by crime rates among refugees, while police say "blacks are in charge of the town."

The WSJ Warns America: "You've Been Played"

"Mrs. Clinton, like Nixon in 1972, may not get a honeymoon no matter how big her win. The debate we aren’t having in the campaign, we will continue not to have: how to foster a modern state that doesn’t metastasize corruption, cronyism, elites helping themselves. "

Wikileaks Releases Another 1,803 Podesta Emails In Part 12 Of Data Dump; Total Is Now 18,953

The daily dump continues.  In the now traditional daily routine, one which forces the Clinton campaign to resort to ever more stark sexual scandals involving Trump to provide a media distraction, moments ago Wikileaks released yet another 1,803 emails in Part 12 of its ongoing Podesta Email dump, which brings the total number of released emails to 18,953.

How A 34 Year Old Goldman Trader Made $100 Million In A Few Months

The curious case of how a 34-year-old high-yield trader at Goldman managed to make $100mm in profits in just 6 months while somehow maintaining compliance with Dodd-Frank regulations...“It goes against everything we’ve been seeing the last three years."

WTI Crude Spikes After Major Crude Inventory Draw Trumps Production Increase

Oil held gains overnight following API's surprise crude inventory draw, DOE data surprised even more with a massive 5.247mm draw (2.1mm build exp). Cushing saw the biggest draw in 6 months but we note that Gasoline inventories rose 2.469mm barrels - the biggest build since Feb. Production rose very modestly but hovers around the 8.5mm b/d level. WTI is spiking and RBOB lagging after the print.

'Russian Hacker' Arrested In Prague Last Week, Announcement "Tactically Delayed" Until Day Of US Debate

Two days before the Obama administration formally accused the Russian government of hacking Democrats, NYTimes reports that a man identified as a "Russian hacker suspected of pursuing targets in the United States" was arrested in the Czech Republic. While the arrest was made on Oct 5th, officials stated that "we postponed the announcement for tactical reasons," which makes one wonder whether this is the debate-day-distraction Hillary needs?

Two Days After He "Turned Bearish On Equities", Dennis Gartman Is Again "Net Long"

"In our retirement funds here at TGL we bought back into the same non-US steel manufacturing concern that we’d owned previously as it broke out to the upside... we are aggressively long of gold/EUR and we own a leveraged gold mining ETF. We have balanced those positions with bearish equity derivatives sufficient to leave us marginally… very marginally… net long of equities."

Housing Starts Crash Most In 5 Years To 18-Month Lows

Following August's disappointing dump in Housing Starts (and Permits), September data is an utter disaster. Against expectations of a 2.9% rise, Housing Starts plunged 9.0% in September to 1.047mm - the weakest since March 2015. Year-over-year, Starts have crashed almost 12% - the most since April 2011, driven by a collapse in multi-family housing. Permits offered some hope for the future (although current starts suggests historical permits were a weak indicator).