With Euro strength dominating FX markets, the Dollar Index has tumbled below 99.00 to the lowest level since Nov 11th. For the first time since Oct 4th, the dollar index is trading below its 200-day moving-average...
White House said in an advance schedule that on April 26 it will hold a briefing for senators with its “four principals” on North Korea "as the administration considers its options for dealing with saber-rattling from Pyongyang" according to Bloomberg. Among those present will be Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
If you’re curious about the story of modern humanity, you’ll find few things more fascinating than the shapeshifting ways of our markets and industries, over many years and decades. These shifts reflect our whole society, our inspiration, our impulses, and our shortcomings.
A Macron 'win' in the first round of the French elections has (judging by the initial reactions) allayed many fears of imminent doom. Dow futures are up around 200 points, Bond futures are down, gold is down (despite USD weakness)... However, as Bloomberg's Cameron Crise notes, "Enjoy the party, parkets; but beware of the bangover."
"Uber engineers assigned a persistent identity to iPhones with a small piece of code, a practice called “fingerprinting.” Uber could then identify an iPhone and prevent itself from being fooled even after the device was erased of its contents. There was one problem: Fingerprinting iPhones broke Apple’s rules."
Most of the results are in, and while it remains close, Macron will likely be the winner of the first French presidential round and is set to face Marine Le Pen in the second round. What does that mean for various asset markets and the bigger macro picture? Here are two forecasts, just released from Goldman and Citi.
Trump will speak on Sunday with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Reuters reports citing a senior administration official said, with North Korea expected to be discussed
With projections all confirming Le Pen and Macron into the second round (though varying notably on who is leading), the markets appear comforted by Macron's position as EURUSD has spike almost 100 pips breaking above 1.09 to 5-month highs...
Clashes have erupted in Le Bastille in central Paris on Sunday evening between riot police and disappointed far left protesters following the closing of polls in the first round of the presidential election, AP reports.
As results begin to trickle in (with pollsters showing Macron leading and official French Interior Ministry showing a Le Pen lead), betting odds ( according to Betfair) are now giving Macron comfortably over 80% chance of becoming France’s next President.
"If results stay as polls suggest, with Le Pen and Macron in the second round, it will be the first time in the history of the ‘fifth’ Republique, that one of France’s two major parties will not be present, marking a monumental change in the French political landscape."
"Because people do not perceive their moods, tops and bottoms in markets sneak right past them. At the top, people will love the market, and events and conditions will provide them with ample bases for rationalizing being heavily invested... the degree of the corrective wave will be larger than that which created the malaise of the 1930s and 1940s."
"The negotiations are ongoing and there's no reason we can't have an agreement there as early as today," Mick Mulvaney said on Fox News Sunday, however he admitted that that negotiations continue to be stuck on Trump's demand that Congress include $1.5 billion to begin a building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, an item Democrats view as a deal breaker.
With the French voting stations open until 7pm, and the first exit polls due just after 8pm, here is a simple matrix predicting how the Euro will respond once the results start trickling in, together with event probabilities, according Citi.