Weekend Reading: Errant Thinking

"Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality is distorted by a misconception."

White House Denies Axios' Report Which Denied Reuters Report About Trump's Border Tax

"There is no daylight between Gary Cohn and the President. His comment was taken out of context as it was part of a broader conversation about the proposals that are connected to border adjustability. At no point during this conversation did Gary make a statement of support or opposition to the House border adjustability plan."

9 Lessons From The Reagan Tax Cuts

A close look at the ’86 tax reform shows why tax reform may not get done this year. As BofAML's Ethan Harris notes, "we are skeptical." Significant tax reform creates winners and losers, which may make it hard to find a "coalition of the willing."

French Voters Call On Obama To Run For President To "Give French People Hope"

"At a time when France is about to vote massively for the extreme right, we can still give a lesson of democracy to the planet by electing a French President, a foreigner. Whether it's possible or not, whether or not he is French, we have to do this for real, to give French people hope... Vive la République, Vive Obama, Vive la France and the U.S.A."

US Crude Production Tops 9 Million Barrels As Rig Count Hits 16-Month Highs

The US oil rig count rose once again this week (up 5) to 602 - the highest since October 2015. US crude production is surging - back above 9 million barrels/day in the last week - the largest since April 2016. The lagged response to rig count builds implies considerably more production to come.

The Status Quo Is Not Working

The conventional objections to DeGrowth boil down to: it isn't the status quo, so it can't work. Actually, it's the status quo that isn't working.

Retail Stocks Surge On Report Trump Opposes House Version Of Border Tax

The White House appears to have flip-flopped again because earlier today, according to Axios, Goldman's ex-president Gary Cohn, and chief economic advisor to President Trump, told a group of CEOs that the White House does not support the House GOP version of a border adjustment tax.

Police Fire Tear Gas, Rubber Bullets To Break Up Anti-Immigrant Protests In South Africa

South African police used rubber bullets, tear gas and water cannon to disperse anti-immigrant protesters in the capital, Pretoria.  Armed police had formed a barrier between rival crowds of citizens and non-nationals marching in Pretoria, but both sides began shouting at one another and brandishing rocks and sticks, prompting police to disperse the angry mobs.

Bond Yields Are Crashing

With net speculative positioning starting to unwind from its historically record short crowd, yields across the curve (and in Eurodollars) are starting to fall. With 30Y back below 3.00% today, 10Y yields have broken below 2017 closing lows and are near intraday lows back to November. So much for the reflation trade...

Trump Slams "Fake News" At CPAC Speech, Blasts Use Of Anonymous Sources

Trump again lashed out at the media from the start of his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), saying his administration was in a fight against “fake news", and also touched on bad polling, promised a surge in military spending, slammed bad deals, vowed to "build the wall", and covered the other now traditional talking points.

It's Bubble Time

Wisdom & discipline will separate winners from victims...