What The "Gambler's Fallacy" Tells Us About Where The Market Will Go next

The Dow has closed at a record high for nine days in a row, so it (and U.S. equities generally) MUST be ready for a pullback, right?  Not so fast.  Thinking that reversion to the mean happens swiftly and reliably is something called “The Gambler’s Fallacy”.  To borrow from an old capital markets aphorism, things can stay weird longer than you can stay solvent betting against them.

RNC Day 3: Make America First Again - Live Feed

Freshly-picked vice presidential nominee Mike Pence is the headliner of Wednesday’s third day of the Republican National Convention. As The Hill reports, with party business, Donald Trump’s official presidential nomination all settled, and any long-shot attempts to deny him the nomination in the rearview mirror, the third day should be a day of unity. With programming not starting until 7pmET, a number of Trump's former rivals and other notable conservatives will all focus on the day's theme: Make America First Again (which is ironically where Trump finds himself, leading Clinton by 1pt in the latest poll).

Why SocGen Thinks There Is Less Than 1% Chance That 10-Year Yields Will Fall Below 1.1%

SocGen has become the latest in a long and illustrious line of (so far wrong) forecasters, to predict that the 30-year-old bond rally is finally over. Using a new and improved "model", the French bank says that there’s less than a 1 percent chance U.S. 10-year yields fall below 1.1% especially as the Federal Reserve moves to raise interest rates. "Our analysis shows a roughly an adjusted fair value for the 10yT of 1.95%." Here's why.

Becoming Japan: "The Threat Of A Global Recession Is Growing"

As we laid out over a year ago,, this simple combination of productivity and demographic trends reveals that U.S. trend GDP growth is converging toward 1%. This is reminiscent of Japan during its "lost decades." Expanding this analysis to the rest of the G7, we find that every economy is effectively becoming Japan, and the sharpest slowdowns are happening outside North America.

Why Citi Thinks "The Pokemon GO Threat Is Real"

The avg. U.S. iOS user is spending over 33 minutes playing Pokémon GO each day. This places PG ahead of apps such as Facebook, Snapchat, Twitter, and Instagram. Although we believe that PG is adding some incremental time to total smartphone time, we think it would be wrong to assume that the app’s success is not coming at the expense of other players.... , YouTube and TWTR are seeing the largest decreases in avg. time spent per day.

S&P Sees A "Crisis Of Confidence Around The Globe" As Corporate Debt Hits $75 Trillion In 2020

"A worst-case scenario would be a series of major negative surprises sparking a crisis of confidence around the globe. These unforeseen events could quickly destabilize the market, pushing investors and lenders to exit riskier positions (a ’crexit’ scenario). If mishandled, this could result in credit growth collapsing as it did during the global financial crisis.”

Milo Yiannopoulos Responds To Twitter Ban

"Twitter is perfectly happy to host ISIS, to host death threats against Donald Trump supporters and they do nothing in any of these cases. But if you make a joke about a feminist, or if you dislike the new Ghostbusters movie, or if you have the audacity to dislike the work in Hollywood of someone who happens to be black, or happens to be a woman and you get suspended, that's absurd."

VIX Hits 11 Handle - Crashes At Fastest Pace In History

In the 17 trading days since Brexit, VIX has fallen 15 of them plunging from almost 27 immediately after the British vote to 11.4 lows this morning - the lowest since August 2014. This collapse is the fastest in the 26 year history of VIX.