Having moved to new highs in this up move above the 1.0906 March high, EURUSD looks to be struggling to sustain those gains. As a consequence there is a danger that triple momentum divergence is forming on the daily chart.
If you are a stock investor, you should be terrified. The most disconcerting words have been uttered by the one person capable of changing the whole dynamic. After spending so many years trying to recreate the magic of the “maestro”, Ben Bernanke in retirement is still at it.
Well that didn't last long:moments after the EUR spiked on Draghi's upbeat economic comments, it has since filled the entire gap and is back to session lows after Draghi talked down Eurozone inflation saying there is no sufficient evidence to alter inflation outlook, and no evidence of a self-sustaining inflation move.
The last two weeks have seen initial jobless claims rise 23k to 257k. This is the biggest 2-week rise since Thanksgiving last year and is back above the Trump election levels and the start of 2017 levels.
With non-hope-based GDP forecasts for Q1 at cycle lows, today's wholesale inventories decline will not help. After dropping in January, and rebounding in Feb, March saw inventories drop 0.1% (against expectations of a 0.2% rise). This is the first quarterly decline in wholesale inventories since Q1 2016 (when the world was feared to be heading into recession).
Despite cherry-picked indications (and exultations) that everything is awesome in Europe's economies (and central banks were united to rescue the world in case of a Le Pen victory), Mario Draghi decided to offer the at-record-high markets another bowl of potential punch bystating that if things got "less favorable" the ECB would increase/extend QE. We look forward to hearing his 'balanced' reasoning.
Just as we warned yesterday following the EIA inventory and production data release, the exuberance over the crude draw was misplaced (due to the surge in product builds and almost unprecedented refining activity along with continued resurgent oil production). Saudi imports continue to show no sign of the OPEC cuts and asone anylst noted "the market looks like it wants to turn lower, maybe it has run out patience waiting for OPEC"
"if the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the programme in terms of size and/or duration."
“I received calls from the President of Mexico and the Prime Minister of Canada asking to renegotiate NAFTA rather than terminate. I agreed” Trump tweeted, and in a following tweet added "subject to the fact that if we do not reach a fair deal for all, we will then terminate NAFTA. Relationships are good-deal very possible!”
European shares are lower, pressured by disappointing results by Deutsche Bank and ending a six-session gain, as Asian equities and S&P futures were little changed after a record-setting rally in world stocks which pushed the MSCI World index to over $50 trillion yesterday, fizzled after Trump released unconvincing tax cut plans prompting traders to "sell the news" while caution set in as the ECB met.
Deutsche Bank tumbled as much as 3.9%, the most since March 20, after reporting 1Q earnings that included a 9% drop in revenue. Analysts were broadly disappointed by the results and noted that the Global Markets division underperformed U.S. peers.
"President Trump agreed not to terminate NAFTA at this time and the leaders agreed to proceed swiftly, according to their required internal procedures, to enable the renegotiation of the NAFTA deal to the benefit of all three countries," a White House statement said.
There is no political constituency for liberty or anything remotely resembling classical liberalism (= libertarianism) in France.I t is clearly time to once again focus on the only thing that one can actually hope for in politicians, and that is entertainment value; luckily we have good news on that front.