• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...
  • Phoenix Capital...
    02/06/2016 - 10:15
    2008 was caused by derivatives based on consumer-focused assets (houses). The next crisis will be driven by derivatives on government-focused assets (bonds).

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PBOC In Da House? Yuan Spikes To 3-Week Highs

Its deja vu all over again in the land of speculative Yuan shorts today. With Golden Week looming, it appears PBOC is stomping on the throat of speculative shorts in the offshore Yuan with another gross intervention. The last 2 days have seen "someone" panic-buying Yuan higher by a stunning 800 pips, smashing CNH back to 3-week highs when then PBOC last intervened in size...


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Explaining Today's Collapse In US Worker Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity collapsed by 3% QoQ, notably worse than expected as labor costs jump. Economists are gnashing their teeth to explain this "plunging productivity paradox" - we think it is rather simple...


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Initial Jobless Claims Average Hovers 11-Month Highs

Since the beginning of 2014, Initial jobless claims and Challenger Job Cuts have decoupled as the former "trended" in its seasonally adjusted manner while the latter appeared to reflect a different reality. That all changed in October last year as the trend in claims began to turn. Last week's jump to 285k dragged the less noisy 4-week average to 285k - the highest since March 2015 as initial claims begin to catch up to Challenger Job Cuts...


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ConocoPhillips Slashes Dividend, Warns Of "Lower Prices For Longer"; Weatherford Fires 15% Of All Workers

Another day, and another round of increasingly uglier news from the global energy sector.


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Starting 2016 With A Bang: Challenger Reports Highest January Layoffs Since 2009

While we await the heavily massaged Initial Claims report from the DOL, moments ago we got the report of actual job layoff announcements tracked by Challenger Gray, and it was quite grim: in the first month of 2016, US-based employers reported 75,114 planned job cuts. January represents the highest monthly tally since July 2015, when cuts reached 105,696. Most troubling, it was the largest January total since 241,749 job cuts were announced during the first month of 2009.


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Credit Suisse Plunges To 25 Year Lows After Posting Enormous $5.8 Billion Q4 Loss

"The environment has deteriorated materially during the fourth quarter of 2015 and it is not clear when some of the current negative trends in financial markets and in the world economy may start to abate."


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Frontrunning: February 4

  • EU Slashes 2016 Inflation Forecast to 0.5% as Growth Seen Slower (BBG)
  • Bank of England cuts UK growth forecasts (FT)
  • Investors Cast Wary Eye on Fed Rate Increases (WSJ)
  • U.N. halts Syria talks as government closes in on Aleppo (Reuters)
  • Credit Suisse Drops as Investment Bank Slump Deepens Losses (BBG)
  • Six OPEC states ready for emergency meeting with non-OPEC members — Venezuela's minister (TASS)

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Futures Flat As Dollar Weakness Persists, Crude Rally Fizzles

After yesterday's torrid, chaotic moves in the market, where an initial drop in stocks was quickly pared and led to a surge into the close after a weaker dollar on the heels of even more disappointing US data and Bill Dudley's "serious consequences" speech sent oil soaring and put the "Fed Relent" scenario squarely back on the table, overnight we have seen more global equity strength on the back of a weaker dollar, even if said weakness hurt Kuroda's post-NIRP world and the Nikkei erased virtually all losses since last Friday's surprising negative rate announcement. Oil and metals also rose piggybacking on the continued dollar weakness as the word's most crowded trade was suddenly shaken out.


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Paul Craig Roberts: There Is No Freedom Without Truth

Conspiracies are real. There are many more of them than people are aware. Many government conspiracies are heavily documented by governments themselves with the official records demonstrating the conspiracies openly available to the public. These conspiracies alone are sufficient to chastise those uninformed Western peoples who go around saying, “our government would never kill its own people." False flag attacks are used by governments in order to pursue secret agendas that they cannot publicly acknowledge. It is late in the game. If you do not stand up for truth, you will have no freedom as there is no freedom without truth.


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The Spread Of ISIS (In 1 Disturbing "The West Is Losing" Animation)

The video below depicting the expansion of ISIS controlled territory over time exposes just how little ground has been taken back from ISIS even after almost a year and a half of coalition combat operations against it. After explosive expansion in 2013-2014, now it seems that when any territory is taken back from the Islamic State they just expand elsewhere.


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Guest Post: How The Blockchain And Gold Can Work Together

In the wake of the most recent financial and economic crisis of 2007–2008, many people have become concerned that their savings, mostly invested in fiat-denominated bank accounts and bonds, could be devaluated. This has prompted a search for "good" money. A 'colored' bitcoin - or something comparable using blockchain technology - represents a possibility.


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Hedge Funds Fight The PBOC: There Can Be Only Yuan

With every Tom, Dick, and Harry hedge fund manager now taking on The People's Bank of China (in various ways), it is no surprise that the spread between offshore Yuan and onshore Yuan blew out to its widest in 3 weeks this morning. They are not getting it all their way for now though.


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"They Rape, Kill, Destroy": Montanans Stage "Security Rally" To "Head Off" Refugee "Invasion"

"It's an invasion. A government sponsored invasion"...


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Shale Shock: Another Leg Lower In Oil Coming After Many Producers Found To Have Far Lower Breakevens

According to a report by the Bloomberg Intelligence analysts William Foiles and Andrew Cosgrove, Saudi Arabia may have its work cut out for it as it will be far harder to kill many U.S. E&Ps than analysts originally thought. The reason: a break-even model for the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford shows that oil production across five plays in Texas and New Mexico may remain profitable even when WTI prices fall below $30 a barrel, according to a 55-variable Bloomberg Intelligence model for horizontal oil wells.


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