Dead 'Market' Walking: Chinese Stock Volatility Crashes Near Record Lows

When Chinese authorities took over the day-to-day management and support of their collapsing stock market in August 2015, it was not just volume that died. From over 110, short-term volatility in China's major stock market - Shanghai Composite - has collapsed to single-digits this week. This is among the least volatile period in the index's history, despite increased uncertainty around stimulus and economic transition.

"Too Simple" Energy-Economy Models Give Misleading Answers

The common lay interpretation of simple models is that running out of energy supplies can be expected to be our overwhelming problem in the future. A more complete model suggests that our problems as we approach limits are likely to be quite different: growing wealth disparity, inability to maintain complex infrastructure, and growing debt problems. Energy supplies that look easy to extract will not, in fact, be available because prices will not rise high enough. These problems can be expected to change the shape of the curve of future energy consumption to one with a fairly fast decline, such as the Seneca Cliff.

What The Sudden Spike In The TED-Spread Really Means

Due to the latest government intervention, differentiating between the signal of real market stress and the noise resulting from the shift due to 2a-7 reform, will now be impossible, and thus it will also be impossible to gauge if there is something truly broken with the market, at least until such a "breakage" becomes all too apparent for everyone to see.

"An Extraordinary Development": Record Swiss Gold Flow Into The United States

There was a huge trend change in U.S. gold investment in May.  Something quite extraordinary took place which hasn’t happened for several decades.  While Switzerland has been a major source of U.S. gold exports for many years, the tables turned in May as the Swiss exported a record amount of gold to the United States.

Apple Surges After Beating Expectations, Despite Forecasting Third Straight Revenue Decline

While the plunge in Twitter share moments ago put those looking forward to AAPL's earnings on edge, Tim Cook delivered, beating on both the top and bottom line, reporting Q3 revenue of $42.4 billion, above the $42.1 billion expected as a result of better than expected iPhone sales, with the company selling 40.4 million units in the quarter, above the 39.9 million expected.

Oil Extends Losses After Surprisingly Large Cushing Build

With all eyes now focused on Gasoline inventories, API's report surprised with a modest draw (-420k) but a considerablyless than expected draw in Crude (-827k vs -2mm exp) and major build at Cushing (+1.4mm vs 750k exp). Crude had faded into the close after testing stops at $43, and extended losses after the API data hit.

Twitter Plummets After Slashing Q3 Outlook

Miraculously managing to beat user growth expectations (313mm MAUs vs 312mm MAUs exp) and EPS (+13c vs +9c exp), Twitter stock is plummeting after-hours after slashing Q3 revenue (and EBITDA) guidance drastically (from $681.4m to between $590 and $610mm). TWTR is trading down 11% after-hours...

Peak Hubris

I don’t understand people... who talk about us as being in decline, and who act as though we are not yet the greatest country that has ever been on the face of the Earth for all of history! - Hillary Rodham Clinton, 25 July 2016

Italy Races To Arrange €5 Billion Bailout For Monte Paschi Before Friday's Stress Test

Italy is scrambling to secure a privately-backed bailout of Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the most exposed of the country’s troubled lenders, including a plan to raise €5bn of fresh capital so as to avert nationalisation, the FT reports. The bank needs to obtain some €5 bilion in capital ahead of Friday's stress test, or else a dire "contagion" scenario could unfold that could impair not only all Italian banks, but promptly spread first to France and then to Germany...

Previewing The Day's Big Event: What To Expect From The Apple's Earnings Report

When it comes to AAPL, the company is truly in a class of its own. And while in the past it helped propel the S&P500 profitability almost singlehandedly (it was responsible for 7% of total S&P earnings in 2015), this has reverse, and now AAPL is set to be the single biggest detractor from S&P growth. Here is what to look for and what Wall Street expects when AAPL reports earnings at 1:30pm Pacific today...

(Con)fidence Game

The financial and economic world in 2016 is, more than anything, a confidence game (pun intended). The year started with confidence severely shaken, so gasoline (as one real economic variable) and hiding intervention (the further hint of desperation) are more likely to have lasting negative effects than effusive but unbacked mainstream praise for the nth year in a row.

These Are The Best And Worst U.S. Cities To Own A House

For those lucky Americans who can afford to own a house instead of being stuck renting the New Normal American dream where they are prohibited from peddling fiction as their annual rent increases by 10% or more each year, here is the breakdown of the best and worst cities for home price appreciation in the U.S.