• Phoenix Capital...
    07/03/2015 - 20:26
    Greece just took a hit… and once again it’s depositors that will take it on the chin. But this process is only just begun. Similar Crises will be spreading throughout the globe in ...

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For The Bookies The Referendum Outcome Is Clear: Paddy Power Pays Out For "Yes" Votes

The market may be scratching its head over the outcome of this Sunday's Greek referendum, soaring on the faintest trace of good news such as the report of Tsirpas' capitulation this morning then reluctantly selling off as the euphoria is rejected, but for the bookies the outcome is now clear: earlier today Ireland's Paddy Power announced it has "paid out five figures" in winnings to gamblers who bet that Greece will back a July 5 austerity referendum that may seal the nation’s future as part of the euro region.



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Merkel Addresses German Parliament: Key Points

As Greece prepares to accept creditors' terms in exchange for a deal, German Chancellor Angela Merkel addresses parliament. Here are the key points. 



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Frontrunning: July 1

  • Tsipras backs down on many Greece bailout demands (FT)
  • Creditors skeptical of Tsipras' offer (Reuters)
  • Greek Pension Rationing Begins; Poll Shows Tsipras Backed (BBG)
  • Greek referendum poll shows lead for 'No' vote, but narrowing (Reuters)
  • Greek Bank Controls Heap More Pain on Crisis-Weary Citizens (BBG)
  • Greek Crisis Ripples Across European Companies as Markets Swing (BBG)
  • China Stocks Fall: Shanghai Composite Index Drops 5.2% (BBG)
  • China June factory, services surveys fuel hopes economy leveling out (Reuters)
  • Some Chinese Are Taking 22% Margin Loans to Finance Stock Purchases (BBG)


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Market Wrap: Greek "Capitulation" Optimism Sends Global Risk Higher After China Re-crashes

So much going on that by the time an article is prepared, everything has changed and it has to be scarpped. But, in any event, here is an attempt to summarize all that has happened in another turbulent overnight session.



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Greek Prime Minister To Address The Nation Shortly



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Equities Soar As Tsipras Said Ready To Accept Most Of Expired Bailout Offer, European Response Muted

It's deja vu all over again.

Just hours after Greece became the first developed country to default to the IMF, as a result being expelled from its existing bailout program, a little before 5am CET news hit that Greek PM Tsipras was willing to concede to virtually all creditor demands, with a few exceptions. As the FT first reported, "Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras will accept most of the bailout creditors’ conditions offered last weekend, but is still insisting on a handful of changes that could thwart a deal according to a letter he sent late on Tuesday night."



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Europe's Controlled Demolition

The EU is blowing up itself by trying to exert far too much influence on the very member nations that made its existence possible. Brussels is a blind city. It will take a lot of pain, and probably even the very wars the EU was originally founded to prevent, to figuratively burn it to the ground.



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Early China Strength Fades Fast As Margin Debt Plunges Most In 3 Years

Following the much-celebrated (and massive 13% swing low-to-high) bounce yesterday at the hands of a desperate PBOC, the morning session ended with an early boost fading. Shanghai margin debt has now suffered the longest streak of declines in 3 years and as BofAML warned they "doubt that this marks the end of the de-leveraging process in the stock market given that much of the leveraged positions are yet to unwind." With both Manufacturing and Services PMIs printing above 50, stimulus is now clearly aimed at maintaining the bubble but as BofAML concludes, "after this adverse experience, we expect many investors will be much more cautious before investing into the stock market, we will be surprised to see a return of the unbridled enthusiasm of investors any time soon."



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For Greeks The Nightmare Is Just Beginning: Here Come The Depositor Haircuts

With capital controls already imposed on Greece, some have wondered if this is as bad as it gets. Unfortunately, as the Cyprus "template" has already shown us, for Greece the nightmare on Eurozone street is just beginning.



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Paul Craig Roberts Rages: Truth Is Now A Crime Against The State

The entire Western edifice rests on lies. There is no other foundation. Just lies. This makes truth an enemy. Enemies have to be suppressed, and thus truth has to be suppressed.



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Goldman Just Crushed The "Strong Fundamentals" Lie; Cuts EPS, GDP, Revenue And Profit Forecasts

To summarize: the first revenue drop for the S&P in 5 years, a major downward revision in EPS now expecting just 1% increase in 2015 EPS, a 25% cut to GDP forecasts, a machete taken to corporate profits and 10 Yields, and not to mention double digit sales declines for some of the most prominent tech companies in the world. And that, in a nutshell, is the "strong fundamentals" that everyone's been talking about.



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The Care And Feeding Of A Financial Black Hole

"...anyone who knows mathematics can see that the United States is on the verge of collapse because its debt has gone exponential, but no European (never mind American) politician can state the obvious, no matter how obvious it is. American officials and politicians are definitely puppets, controlled by corporate lobbyists and shady oligarchs. But here's a shocker: these are also puppets - controlled by the simple imperatives of profitability and wealth preservation, respectively. In fact, it's puppets all the way down. And what's at the bottom is a giant, ever-expanding, financial black hole."



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Chinese QE Calls Officially Begin: Bond Swap "Sucks Liquidity", "Contributes To Stock Slump", Broker Claims

"Local debt issuance sucks liquidity, reduces banks’ capital to buy bonds, contributes to stock slump," Haitong Securities says. The only option, according to the firm, is outright debt monetization by the PBoC.



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No End In Sight For Higher-Education Malinvestment

"A true bubble is when something is overvalued and intensely believed. Education may be the only thing people still believe in in the United States. To question education is really dangerous. It is the absolute taboo. It’s like telling the world there’s no Santa Claus."



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When Disruption Gets Too Disruptive

With massive strikes in France and now drivers shooting passengers, Uber is making headlines everywhere. While some might say any publicity is good publicity (and any disruption is good disruption), for the firm valued at $50 billion (with a stunning operating loss of $470 million and revenues of only $415 million) perhaps there is a limit to both press and disruption...



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