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JPM's Striking Forecast: ECB Could Cut Rates To -4.5%; BOJ To -3.45%; Fed To -1.3%

JPM estimates that if the ECB just focused on reserves equivalent to 2% of gross domestic product it could slice the rate it charges on bank deposits to minus 4.5%. In Japan, JPM calculates that the BOJ could go as low as -3.45% while Sweden’s is likely -3.27%. Finally, if and when the Fed joins the monetary twilight race, it could cut to -1.3% and the Bank of England to -2.69%.


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Profit At World's Largest Shipping Company Plunges On Collapsing Global Trade, Sinking Crude Prices

Back in November, Nils Smedegaard Andersen, CEO of Maersk, the world’s largest shipping company, gave the world a reality check when it comes to global growth and trade. “The world’s economy is growing at a slower pace than the International Monetary Fund and other large forecasters are predicting” Andersen told Bloomberg. On Wednesday, we got a look at how the challenging environment affected Maersk's bottom line in 2015. The picture wasn't pretty.


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Frontrunning: February 10

  • Global Stocks Bounce Back After Market Selloff; Asia Stumbles (WSJ)
  • New Hampshire Bucks the Establishment to Back Trump and Sanders (BBG)
  • Trump shows his U.S. presidential bid is no mere publicity stunt (Reuters)
  • Clinton Is Outdone by a Competitor Once Considered a Fringe Candidate (WSJ)
  • Deutsche Bank Jumps as Lender Said to Consider Bond Buyback (BBG)
  • Bank Executives Leading Surge of Insider Buying Amid Stock Rout (BBG)

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European Banks Soar On Rumor ECB May Monetize Bank Stocks; Japan Crash Continues

While algos patiently await the only thing that matters for US stocks today which is Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress. expected to be released at 8:30 am (and previewed here), the rest of the world this morning is a hot mess of schizophrenic highs and lows.


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"Investors Have Completely Lost Faith In Deutsche Bank" A Top 10 Shareholder Admits

After a day of "rock solid" Lehman-isms, emergency bond buyback plans, and a stock price still unable to close green, Deutsche Bank is on the ropes (despite CNBC proclaiming that "it doesn't feel like a Lehman moment.") However, as dawn breaks across the motherland, something more insidious is breaking for Germany's largest bank. Deutsche faces an uphill task rescuing its stock from record lows, especially, as Reuters reports, a top 10 shareholder exclaims "investors have completely lost faith in the bank," and a fast recovery from this crisis was unlikely.


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Doland Trump, Bernie Sanders Win New Hampshire Primary - Live Feed

Literally one second after the polls closed at 8:00 pm, virtually all the media outlets, including AP, NBC and CNN, covering the NH primary called the outcome:

Republican winner: Donald Trump
Democrat winner: Bernie Sanders


Tyler Durden's picture

Is The American Dream Dead?

The American dream is not a thing in physical terms but an idea that lives or dies with certain beliefs in society. Can it die? Yes it can if those beliefs are purged from the conscience of society. This is what Jefferson meant by watering the tree of liberty with the blood of patriots from time to time.


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This Is What Central Bank Failure Looks Like (Part 2)

Following The BoJ's utter collapse from omnipotence to impotence, it seems the rest of the world is losing faith in Central Banks "control," as nothing says The Fed knows nothing like the collapse of Fed credibility to... nothing...


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What Janet Yellen Could Say Tomorrow To Unleash A Market Surge

"The dovish surprise is if she explicitly removes March from the hiking calendar (which would be Draghi-esque in front running the FOMC), broadly hints at a delay or expresses concern on downside risk to long term inflation or structural stagnation. The intention would be to show US households, business and investors that the Fed has their back... It is unlikely, however, that pointing to negative rates or QE4 would work, as investors are increasingly skeptical that more of the same policy mix would be effective in hitting final goals."


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Global Stocks Enter Bear Market

With stock markets from every continent plunging (Japan most recently), it should be no surprise that MSCI's world index has entered a bear market - dropping over 20% from its April 2015 record highs. However, as Gavekal notes, while much of the drag on global stocks is from collapsing emerging markets, the average developed market stock is down 23% in the past year.


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"I Don't Trust Deutsche Bank" David Stockman Unleashes Truth Bomb: "When The Crunch Comes, Bank CEOs Lie"

"I don't trust Deutsche Bank. I don't trust what they're saying. And there's reason why the banks are being sold all across the world... because people are realizing once again that we don't know what's there [on bank balance sheets]."


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"Jingle Mail" Makes Comeback In Canada As Underwater Borrowers Mail Keys Back To Banks

"People [are] saying that we can't make a go of it and mail the keys to the bank. In the big cities, not so much because the average sale prices haven't really dropped much, we haven't seen the pain yet. But Calgary is getting pretty tight."


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Carnage Continues - Japanese Stocks Crash (Again) As Australia Enters Bear Market

Another night, another utter bloodbath in AsiaPac. Japanese markets are plunging (NKY down 600 from US session close and NKY is down 2200 points from post-NIRP highs) along with USDJPY as Kuroda readies himself to face parliament (and Abe says he "trusts Governor Kuroda.") Once again banks leading the pain. Australia is also in trouble, after admissions of cooked data sent stocks lower pushing the ASX 200 into bear market territory.


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If It Looks Like A Recession, And Smells Like A Recession...

Then we must be "peddling fiction..."


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Deutsche Bank Is Scared: "What Needs To Be Done" In Its Own Words

"So back to the  original question WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE. Simple?  Recognize the problem. It is not oil, it is not in the banks..it is a run on central bank liquidity, especially dollar based and there needs to be much more ($) liquidity.... Cash shd be charged interest -- put the micro chip in large denom notes/tax cash withdrawals.. encourage spending not saving."


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